PGA Championship Expert Outright Picks

PGA CHAMPIONSHIP EXPERT OUTRIGHT PICKS – Over here at Clubhouse Picks, we had a special guest to help us break down the tournament. Elizabeth Martin (@ElizDiane22 on Twitter) gave her thoughts on what should be a challenging test at Oak Hill Country Club, located just outside of Rochester, New York.

Newest edition of #ClubhousePicks ⛳️is up and this week we’re joined by @ElizDiane22 and @nperrywrites while we talk #PGAChampionship and all things #Golf. Give us a listen below 🎧https://t.co/i718iNnRCw

— Godzilla Wins! (@godzillawinsbig) May 18, 2023

I’ve aggregated all of our picks together, but chose one to break down in more detail. Go ahead and give her a follow for her great takes and be sure to check out the podcast on Spotify or wherever you consume your podcasts.

Additionally, be sure to check out our tournament preview so you know what to expect this week as the world’s best embark on the second major championship of the season.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, May 17, 2023

The Driver (Rahm, Scheffler)

These are the guys who are at the top of the leaderboard, usually at +2000 or better. They are the favorites for a reason, and though we don’t always bet them, these are our favorite bets from the top of the board.

Jon Rahm (+800)

He’s pretty much the favorite, co-favorite, or second choice in terms of odds depending on where you look. He and Scottie Scheffler are clearly the two best players on the planet and we wouldn’t fault you for liking either of them. Elizabeth and Jack both like Rahm to be the first person to win the first two majors of the year since Jordan Spieth did it in 2015.

There’s not much new to say about Rahm-bo. He’s already notched four victories this year, including The Masters. He leads the Tour in adjusted scoring, converting GIR into par breakers, all-around ranking – and he’s near the top in just about everything else. If you want to play the hot hand this week, he’s about as hot as it gets. His resume speaks for itself at this point and there’s no need to belabor it. He’s the top-ranked player in the world for a reason.

The Irons (Koepka, Day, Cam Young)

Our reliable players. You can usually find these heroes in the 20/1-80/1 range. They’re reliable and often a good bet for top-5, top-10, or top-20 props if you’re not feeling especially frisky.

Brooks Koepka (+2200)

We all know the narrative at this point. Brooks basically only cares about majors, and the idea that he doesn’t need much of a competitive tune-up before them seems to be true after a very solid Masters where he looked incredible through the first three rounds before fading on Sunday.

Well, we aren’t doubting the LIV guys after getting bamboozled at last go-round in a major, so we’re taking Koepka here to do what he does best: contend in the biggest tournaments on the biggest stage.

He’s been playing pretty well in the LIV events with top-10s in his two most recent outings. Form and stats mean almost nothing when it comes to Brooks in majors. So, don’t look too far in to this one. We know what he does, and he’s won four majors already in his career. You could do worse than this stone cold closer.

The Wedges (Collin Morikawa, Tyrrell Hatton, Gary Woodland)

We bet on these guys all the time and they never seem to actually win. Nevertheless, we’re enamored with what the bring to the table and will ride with them for as long as it takes. 

Tyrrell Hatton (+3500)

My torrid love affair with betting on Tyrrell Hatton has been well-documented. He rides the highs and lows as hard as any elite golfer and I’ve been there with money on him for almost all of them. I cannot quit him now that he’s playing some of the best golf of his career.

The stats are just ludicrous. He’s 5^th in SG: Total, 6^th in SG: Tee to Green, 8^th in SG: Off the Tee, 13^th in SG: Approach, and 25^th in SG: Putting. There are very, very few weak spots in this man’s game if he can just get out of his own way mentally.

He’s already notched a bevy of good finishes with a solo second at the Players, T-3 at the Wells Fargo, T-4 at the API, T-5 last week in the Byron Nelson along with top-10 finishes at the WM Open and Abu Dhabi. All that’s missing is the win. I will be there for it when, not if, it happens this season.

The Putter (Homa, Rory, Dustin Johnson)

Bet regret. We fired off these bets in the heat of the moment, then we pondered them a little while longer. Now we’re wondering if that money would’ve been better spent on literally anything else. 

Dustin Johnson (+3000)

Jack drank the Kool-Aid after DJ took down last week’s LIV event in Tulsa, and looked great while doing it.

The problem is that he hadn’t done very much for a while before jumping up and getting a win this year. Without any hard data for the LIV guys, these bets are mostly eyeball test and intuition. It’s not typically a wise strategy, and it’s hard to say if DJ is really in a groove now that his back issues have cleared up or if he just popped for one week.

It’s just really hard to tell how the LIV guys will fit on this course without any strokes gained data. DJ is, obviously, a past major champion. But he’s been too erratic of late to put much stock in his most recent victory as being predictive of getting another win one week later.

 

The Hybrid (Keegan Bradley, Joel Dahmen, Sahith Theegala)

This is our fun long shot that could make us all rich. Or not. It’s tough to hit these, but it’s a damn good time sweating them if they’re in contention. Tread lightly on these guys, but sometimes miracles happen.

Sahith Theegala (+9000)

Sahith pretty much defies logic and it’s really difficult to predict where he’ll play well. He routinely outperforms expectations on courses that don’t look like a good fit for him, which is why we love him at long odds.

He’s still searching for his first win, but it’s not outside the realm of possibility that he could hop up and win a major given his pedigree as an outstanding amateur and his talent level.

What we know about Sahith is this: he’s a good iron player and he’s electric on and around the greens. He’s plenty long enough to handle this course, but the driving accuracy is always a concern.

If you’re taking Sahith this week, you’re banking on the fairways being difficult to find for everyone, not just him. If that’s the case and this tournament deteriorates into a scrambling and recovery contest, you could do worse than having one of the premier recovery and scrambling artists on your betting card.

We’re not saying it will happen, but it’s sure fun to think about.