Padres vs. Dodgers Expert Pick and Prediction – May 12, 2023
PADRES VS. DODGERS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – May 12, 2023 — This matchup features a pitching rematch, as Dustin May and Blake Snell just faced off with each other six days ago in San Diego. May got the better of the Padres in that matchup, a 2-1 pitcher’s duel that saw Snell’s lack of control get the better of him.
In last week’s meeting, Snell held Los Angeles to one hit in six innings. The problem was that he walked three batters and the one hit he gave up was a two-run home run that proved all the offense the Dodgers needed.
Snell’s had a real problem with walks this season, as he’s averaging three per start. He’s never been known for his control as a strikeout pitcher, but he usually only walks about one hitter every two innings. This season, he’s walked 21 guys in 35 innings, which has helped boost his ERA to a career-high 4.89.
To make matters worse, this isn’t the right matchup for a pitcher with control problems. The Dodgers’ problem at the plate might be that they’re too selective, as Los Angeles often lets borderline pitches go by for strikes rather than go chasing.
Because of that, the Dodgers rank fifth in the majors in strikeouts, but they lead the majors in walks. If they’re not hitting against Snell, they’ll probably still find their way on base, and that’s trouble for San Diego if the Padres can’t solve May this time.
The Odds
Matchup |
Open |
Spread |
Total |
Moneyline |
San Diego Padres(19-19 SU,
|
O9 |
+1.5 |
O9 |
+125 |
Los Angeles Dodgers(23-15 SU, 20-18 RL) |
-1.5 |
-1.5 |
U9 |
-145 |
First Pitch
When: Friday, May 12th at 10:10 p.m. EDT
Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
Starting Pitchers: Blake Snell, SD (1-5, 4.89 ERA, 39 K’s) vs. Dustin May, LAD (4-1, 2.68 ERA, 29 K’s)
Public Bets: 75% on Los Angeles
Public Money: 89% on Los Angeles
Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of May 12th, 2023
San Diego vs. Los Angeles In-Season Trends
It sounds kind of snarky, but the Padres might have genuinely left their bats in Mexico City. Since that two-game series at elevation with San Francisco, San Diego has played UNDER in eight of its past nine games.
The Padres managed to go OVER to start May against the Reds, but since then, it’s been all UNDERs and usually, it’s because of a lack of scoring on their part.
In the Dodgers series last week, San Diego managed to score just eight runs in three games. Things didn’t go much better in Minneapolis, as the Twins held them to 12 runs in three games.
On the positive side of the ledger, San Diego’s pitching has held opponents to three runs or less in six of its past nine games, including two out of three against the Dodgers. The Snell game only saw Los Angeles score twice, and the Dodgers only managed nine runs in that series.
Whether it’s by offense or defense, Los Angeles seems to be hitting its stride. The Dodgers come in having won 10 of 12, easily their hottest stretch of the season.
Players to Watch
Don’t expect much of an offensive showcase for San Diego. May has been remarkably consistent this season, recording at least 15 outs in every start and holding all but one opponent to three hits or less. May isn’t a great strikeout pitcher, but the Padres rank sixth in the majors in strikeouts, so his prop play could be in play on this one.
The concern is Snell, who has given up at least one home run in each of his past six starts. He doesn’t tend to allow a lot of hits, but he has walked three or more hitters in five of his past six starts. If the big fly comes with runners on base, the Dodgers will break this game open.
The Pick
I like both pitchers in this matchup, as both looked solid last time they faced off with each other. The difference is, May tends to be more stingy with his free passes. He’s only allowed 15 walks in 40 1/3 innings, and he’s given up just one home run on the year.
Snell’s been more inconsistent, and this is a game where control will matter. The Dodgers lead the majors in walks, and the Padres rank second. Both teams can work the count well, and both teams will struggle to score in bunches against these pitchers.
That lends itself to May’s strengths, and that leads me to back a Dodgers victory.
Dan’s Picks |
Dodgers MLUnder 9Blake Snell O2.5 Walks |