Orioles vs.Yankees Expert Pick and Prediction – May 23, 2023 

ORIOLES VS.YANKEES EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – May 23, 2023 — The weekend series confirmed what a lot of baseball fans already knew: Baltimore is good. The Orioles went to Toronto over the weekend and pounded the Blue Jays, topping six runs each time. Baltimore’s record might have been seen as a little inflated last month because of several games against the much weaker AL Central (the last-place Blue Jays would be tied for first in the Central), but after sweeping Toronto and winning two from Tampa Bay, there’s no question the Orioles are for real. 

However, now they’re up against perhaps the toughest pitching challenge in the game. Gerrit Cole never really had to adjust to New York until last year, as his first two seasons in the Bronx were COVID-impacted and didn’t carry the weight of the New York fans and media. Last season, he posted his worst ERA since 2017, but it’s clear that had more to do with 2022 being his year to really adjust to New York.  

This season, he’s carving up opponents, rarely giving up more than two runs a start. Out of the 14 runs he’s surrendered in 62 2/3 innings, seven came against the Rays. Remove the two starts against the Rays, and Cole’s ERA drops to a mind-bending 1.20. Can the Orioles’ hot bats help them survive this challenge? 

The Odds 

Matchup	Open	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Baltimore Orioles  (31-16 SU, 31-16 RL)	O8	+1.5	O8	+140
New York Yankees  (29-20 SU, 28-21 RL)	-1.5	-1.5	U8	-165

First Pitch 

When: Tuesday, May 23rd at 7:05 p.m. EDT 

Where: Yankee Stadium, New York 

Starting Pitchers: Kyle Bradish, BAL (2-1, 3.90 ERA, 29 K’s) vs. Gerrit Cole, NYY (5-0, 2.01 ERA, 68 K’s)  

Public Bets: 76% on New York 

Public Money: 77% on New York 

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of May 22nd, 2023 

Baltimore vs. New York In-Season Trends 

These teams met earlier at Camden Yards, where Baltimore proved it can hit New York’s bullpen. Out of 11 Oriole runs in the three-game set, the Birds scored six of them after the fifth inning. Usually, Cole doesn’t pitch past the seventh, and he hasn’t done it in any of his past six starts.  

One thing Cole also doesn’t do is give up enough runs to hit the total. In 10 starts, the UNDER has cashed in seven of them, and two of the exceptions were again Tampa Bay. The third came when the Yankees dropped 11 runs on Cleveland, as nobody other than the Rays has topped two runs in a Cole start. That means two streaks are on a collision course; the OVER has cashed in seven straight games in the Bronx. 

Players to Watch 

Cole hasn’t hit his strikeout totals in any of his past three starts, and that might continue here. Baltimore is very patient with its bats and doesn’t strike out all that often, which could leave Cole short of his 7.5 strikeout total.  

Hits aren’t likely to come often in this game, but Cedric Mullins will likely get his share. The Oriole center fielder collected five last time out and has hit safely in eight of his past 10 games. He’s also a good bet to score a run, as he’s second on the Orioles in stolen bases. 

The Pick 

The Orioles aren’t used to playing tight games, but that’s what tends to happen when Cole’s on the mound. Out of 10 starts, eight have been decided by two runs or less or gone to extra innings. The Yankees have failed to cover in each of Cole’s past three starts, losing two of them in extra frames. 

That makes Baltimore on the run line fairly attractive, as they’re likely to do some damage against the New York bullpen. I don’t think it’ll be enough to go over the total, but I think it will keep the Orioles close. 

Dan’s Picks

Orioles +1.5  Under 8  Gerrit Cole Under 7.5 K’s  Cedric Mullins Over 0.5 Hits

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