Oklahoma vs. TCU Expert Pick and Prediction – March 13, 2024
OKLAHOMA VS. TCU EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – March 13, 2024 — If the selection committee cares about finishing strong, Oklahoma’s in massive peril. The Sooners limp into the Big 12 tournament as losers of five of their past seven, with the only wins coming in overtime.
To make matters worse, those wins weren’t the kind that impress anyone. The victories came against Oklahoma State and Cincinnati, both of whom spent Tuesday playing in the play-in games of the Big 12 tournament. The Sooners haven’t beaten anyone who will play in the NCAA tournament since a Feb. 6 win over BYU, and that’s about all the Sooners have on the profile other than a home win over Iowa State in January.
Luckily for Oklahoma, it still plays in the Big 12, where opportunities abound for good wins. TCU would qualify, even though the Frogs aren’t finishing strong either. TCU has gone just 7-8 in its past 15 games in the Big 12 meat grinder and dropped a couple it shouldn’t have. The Frogs are living off wins over Baylor and Houston, but as long as you don’t lose to West Virginia, there really are no bad losses in the league this year.
The winner of this game would get a shot at Houston, where a win would eliminate all possibility of doubt about their postseason hopes. The loser will have a nervous wait until Sunday.
The Odds
Matchup |
Open |
Spread |
Points |
Moneyline |
Oklahoma(20-11 SU, 15-16 ATS) |
O145 |
+2.5 |
O144.5 |
+120 |
TCU(20-11 SU, 18-13 ATS) |
-2.5 |
-2.5 |
U144.5 |
-140 |
Tipoff
When: Wednesday, March 13 at 3 p.m. EST
Where: T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, Mo.
TV: ESPN+
Public Bets: 91% on TCU
Public Money: 88% on TCU
Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of March 12th, 2024
Oklahoma vs. TCU In-Season Trends
TCU has been the kind of team bettors love. When the Frogs win, they cover. When they lose, they lose on the spread. Over its past 24 games, the Frogs have matched their spread result to their game result 22 times, with the lone exceptions coming when they fell by one at Texas Tech and two at Kansas but covered the spread.
Most of Oklahoma’s defeats tend to be fairly decisive. During this slide since February, the Sooners have managed just one loss by nine points or less: a two-point home loss to Houston that would have made a world of difference. Otherwise, Oklahoma just hasn’t been able to keep up.
And keep up might be the word with TCU. The Frogs make their living off second-chance points and baskets off turnovers. Oklahoma should hold its own on the glass with the Frogs, but the turnovers are another story. The Sooners rank 295th at allowing points off steals, and that won’t cut it in this game.
The Difference-Makers
Javian McCollum seems to be hitting a wall the same way his team is. Oklahoma’s point guard went for 17 points in the game with TCU, but as the year’s gone on, he’s seen his scoring dip. Iowa State and Texas held him to nine points combined, and he simply hasn’t taken over games as he once could.
Emanuel Miller is very capable of taking over games inside with how he extends possessions. Against Oklahoma in the regular season, Miller took over for 27 points and nine rebounds, six on the offensive glass. If he has another field day inside, it’s curtains for the Sooners.
The Pick
Oklahoma has to get to the line to win this game. That’s the one area where the Sooners can offset the Frogs’ defensive advantages and cash in on TCU’s aggressive play. Whether the Sooners can actually do that is another question. TCU will commit a lot of fouls if teams play at the breakneck pace the Frogs love, but trying to force the issue requires playing right into TCU’s hands.
The Sooners couldn’t outmuscle the Frogs in January when they came to Fort Worth, and their chances don’t seem all that much better here. TCU likely sends Oklahoma out of the Big 12 tournament with a first-round exit and a bunch of nervous moments on Sunday.
Dan’s Picks |
TCU -2.5Over 144.5 |
