Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Detroit Pistons Expert Pick – January 28, 2024

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER VS. DETROIT PISTONS EXPERT PICK – JANUARY 28, 2024 –Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games from Sunday’s slate features the Oklahoma City Thunder (32-13 SU, 30-14-1 ATS) taking on the Detroit Pistons (5-40 SU, 20-24-1 ATS).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Sunday, January 28, 2024

Time: 2:00 PM ET

Where: Little Caesars Arena

Location: Detroit, MI

TV: BSDET and BSOK

 

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Detroit Pistons Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Oklahoma City Thunder (32-13 SU, 30-14-1 ATS)	-11	-12.5	O240	-900
Detroit Pistons (5-40 SU, 20-24-1 ATS)	U242	+12.5	U240	+600

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Detroit Pistons — Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Thunder Extend Their Winning Streak To Six Games?

Oklahoma City Thunder Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 121.6 PPG – 3RD
• Offensive Efficiency: 120.8 points per 100 possessions – 4^TH
• Scoring Defense: 112.9 PPG – 14^TH        
• Defensive Efficiency: 112.2 points per 100 possessions – 4^TH

As predicted by no one coming into the season,  the Oklahoma  City Thunder currently have the best record in the Western Conference and the second-best record in the league behind the Boston Celtics.

They have produced eight wins across their last 10 outings and enter this matchup riding the wave of a five-game winning streak.  This includes a 107-83 victory over the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday night.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was the head honcho for the Thunder. He finished with 31 points, five assists and four rebounds.

Thanks to an MVP-caliber season thus far, Gilgeous-Alexander was recently voted as a Western Conference starter for this year’s  All-Star Game.

He does it inside the team,” Daigneault said,  via ESPN. “His success also impacts the team and somehow creates space for other guys to elevate and improve and other guys to rock out a little bit. He’s able to balance high ambition and high production with creating the level of space he does for the rest of the team. That, to me, is the most impressive thing. He’s a great player. ”

Although SGA is the team’s top scorer, a couple of his teammates had noteworthy performances as well. Chet Holmgren added 20 points, 13 rebounds, and two blocked shots. Jalen Williams contributed 15 points,  seven assists and four rebounds.

Taking into consideration that the Pistons are just 5-40 on the season, there is no reason why the Thunder cannot extend their winning streak to six games.

Are the Pistons Capable Of Making This A Somewhat Competitive Matchup?

 Detroit Pistons Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 112.5 PPG – 24^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 111.2 points per 100 possessions – 26^TH   
• Scoring Defense: 122.6 PPG – 27^TH
• Defensive Efficiency: 121.2 points per 100 possessions – 29^TH

On the other side of this matchup, the Pistons are having a terrible season. In addition to having the worst record in the NBA, they rank near the bottom of the league in multiple offensive and defensive metrics.

Detroit has also dropped eight of its last 10 decisions. This includes a 118-104 loss to the Washington Wizards on Saturday night.

Bojan Bogdanovic paced Detroit with 30 points on 10-for-19 shooting from the field.  He also tallied three rebounds and three assists.

Cade Cunningham added 20 points, 12 assists, and four boards, while Isaiah Stewart contributed 11 points, seven rebounds, and two assists.

Now that we have set the table for this matchup, let us look at the all-important betting trends for both sides.

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The Spread

The Thunder opened as an 11-point favorite. At the time of this writing, the line has moved to 12.5  points for the road team. Here is a glance at how both teams have fared against the spread this season.

• The Thunder are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
• OKC is 2-7 ATS in their last nine matchups against Detroit.
• The Thunder have covered the spread in each of their previous five matchups against Eastern Conference opponents.
• OKC is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 January games.
• The Pistons are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
• Detroit is 5-12 in their last 17 games against Western Conference teams.
• The Pistons are 4-1 ATS in their last five January games.

Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder (-12.5)

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Over/Under

The over/under total opened at 242 points. The line has recently dipped to 240 points. Here are a few trends that suggest why going with the “UNDER” is the best option.

• The total has gone UNDER six times in the Thunder’s last nine games.
• The UNDER total has prevailed 13 times in the Pistons’ last 19 outings.
• The two teams are averaging a combined 220 points this season.
• In the previous five games between these teams, the combined score NEVER exceeded the projected points total for this matchup.

Prediction: UNDER 240 points

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Player Prop Bets

The player to watch for the road team is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He currently has -130 odds of scoring more than 32.5 points and +100 odds of scoring less than 32.5 points. Let’s see how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• On the season, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 31.1 points per outing.
• In 23 road games, he is averaging 31 PPG.
• Gilgeous-Alexander has played against Eastern Conference teams 15 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 33.4 points per outing.
• In five matchups against Central Division teams this season, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 36 PPG.
• During the month of January, he is averaging 31 points per outing, exceeding the projected points total for this matchup seven times during that stretch.

Given the above trends, going with the “over” for Gilgeous-Alexander is the best option.

Prediction: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 32.5 points

With Cade Cunningham being listed as questionable, the key player to watch for the home team is Bojan Bogdanovic. He currently has -120 odds of scoring more than 19.5 points and -110 odds of finishing with less than 19.5 points.

Here is a closer look at how his numbers compare to the projected points total for this matchup.

• During the season, Bogdanovic is averaging 20.6 points per outing.
• In 14 home games, he is averaging 21.9 PPG.
• Bogdanovic has played against Western Conference teams nine times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 19 points per outing.
• In four matchups against Northwest Division teams, he is averaging 19.5 PPG.
• In January – a sample size of 11 games — Bogdanovic is averaging 21.7 points per game, exceeding the points total for this matchup five times during that stretch.

Given the above trends, going with the “over” for Bogdanovic is the best option.

Prediction: Bojan Bogdanovic OVER 19.5 points

James’s Thunder vs. Pistons Picks

Spread: Thunder (-12.5) Over/Under: UNDER 240 points Player Prop Bet #1: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 32.5 points Player Prop Bet #2: Bojan Bogdanovic Over 19.5 points