Ohio State vs. Michigan Expert Pick and Prediction – November 25, 2023

OHIO STATE VS. MICHIGAN EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – NOVEMBER 25, 2023 — The Game is as big as ever, and this year, it likely serves as an elimination game for the College Football Playoff. Michigan is almost certainly out if it loses here, as the Wolverines don’t have the strength of schedule otherwise. Other than Penn State and perhaps Maryland, the Wolverines’ next-best win might be UNLV.

Ohio State’s schedule hasn’t been a lot better, but the Buckeyes did at least play and beat Notre Dame. Additionally, Ohio State seems to be getting stronger as the season progresses. Over the past three weeks, the Buckeyes have won their games by a combined count of 110-22, and 16 of the 22 came at Rutgers’ hand.

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But can they finally out-tough Michigan? In the past two years, the Buckeyes have succumbed to the Wolverines in the second half, as Michigan uses its strength and conditioning to help pull away from Ohio State and lock down the spot in the league title game. This year, Jim Harbaugh won’t be on the sidelines for the Wolverines, but it’s still the same athletes who have made the difference for Michigan.

A third straight Wolverines win would be the first time that’s happened since 1997, and that would only intensify the pressure on Ryan Day. In short, both teams badly need a win here.

The Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Points	Moneyline
Ohio State (11-0 SU, 6-4-1 ATS)	O46.5	+3.5	O46.5	+135
Michigan (10-1 SU, 5-5-1 ATS)	-3.5	-3.5	U46.5	-160

Kickoff

When: Saturday, November 25th at 8:30 p.m. EST

Where: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Mich.

TV: Fox

Public Bets: 72% on Ohio State

Public Money: 68% on Ohio State

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of November 23rd, 2023.

Ohio State vs. Michigan In-Season Trends

For a pair of high-powered offenses, both of these teams are used to starting slow. Michigan has gone under in the first half in six of eight at home, and Ohio State’s done the same in five of its past six away games.
However, this is a game where the winning team needs to score. Both teams are excellent at putting points on the board, and year after year, both teams do their fair share of scoring. The last four meetings have all seen no fewer than 68 points between the two teams, and the losing team hasn’t scored less than 20 in 10 of the past 11 matchups.
That said, 30 points is usually a winning number; the losing team has only topped 30 once in the past eight meetings.

Weather

It’s going to be chilly in this one. At least wind won’t play a role, but with temperatures topping out at around 36 degrees, about the best thing you can say about the weather here is the snow won’t show up until Sunday.

The Difference-Makers

In this game, a turnover is like gold for the defense that can force one. Between them, J.J. McCarthy and Kyle McCord have only thrown eight interceptions on the season while combining for 40 touchdown passes. Michigan seems to have the edge on the ground with Blake Corum, while Ohio State counters with Heisman candidate Marvin Harrison Jr.

In short, both teams have plenty of weapons and won’t hesitate to use all of them as best as they can. It should be a showcase from start to finish.

The Pick

It’s really hard to pick either team in this game, as Michigan really hasn’t proven itself this season and Ohio State still has that problem with getting by the second half as Michigan gets stronger.

Like it or not, the Buckeyes are still going to carry the soft label until they prove otherwise by playing 60 minutes against Michigan. I think they’re the better team, but I’m not that confident in making a pick on that. I will, however, go with Ohio State to lead at the break.

Dan’s Picks

Ohio State ML 1H    Over 46.5