Notre Dame vs. Wake Forest Expert Pick and Prediction – March 13, 2024 

NOTRE DAME VS. WAKE FOREST EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – March 13, 2024 — This is exactly who Wake Forest didn’t want to see as its first opponent in the ACC Tournament. Either way, the Demon Deacons were going to open with a team they’d already lost to down the stretch, as they fell to both Georgia Tech and Notre Dame to pick up two of the worst losses available in the ACC. 

But in March, nobody wants a piece of Micah Shrewsberry, especially not in a tournament setting. Last year, Shrewsberry guided Penn State from the wrong side of the bubble on Day 2 to one shot away from a Big Ten championship on Selection Sunday. In a conference tournament setting, Shrewsberry’s proving himself to be Mr. March, owning a 6-2 record in conference tournament games and a 6-0 mark when the opponent isn’t Purdue. 

Wake Forest shares the Boilermakers’ color scheme, but there’s a serious lack of Zach Edey on the Demon Deacons’ bench. And without that matchup nightmare that Purdue used to stymie Shrewsberry for two years, the Irish have shown that they can handle the Demon Deacons’ game. 

And that’s why Wake Forest wanted no part of this matchup. The Demon Deacons know that if they can get to Thursday, they’ll have a game with Pittsburgh, a team they’ve already routed and one that brings plenty of rewards on the resume. But they have to survive Wednesday first, and that’s no easy task. Notre Dame doesn’t offer any reward whatsoever, but the Fighting Irish can kill the Demon Deacons’ chances at an NCAA tournament bid with another strong 40 minutes. 

The Odds 

Matchup	Open	Spread	Points	Moneyline
Notre Dame  (13-19 SU, 18-14 ATS)	O137	+8.5	O136.5	+300
Wake Forest  (19-12 SU, 16-14-1 ATS)	-8.5	-8.5	U136.5	-380

Tipoff 

When: Wednesday, March 13 at 2:30 p.m. EST 

Where: Capital One Arena, Washington 

TV: ESPN 

Public Bets: 81% on Notre Dame 

Public Money: Unavailable 

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of March 12th, 2024 

Notre Dame vs. Wake Forest In-Season Trends 

One thing to note about Shrewsberry: his teams play hard at the end of the season even when they have nothing to play for. Notre Dame comes into this game hot, having covered in six of its past seven games. Only against North Carolina and Duke — both away — did the Irish look incapable of competing. Otherwise, Notre Dame has proven to be a tough out, which is reflected in how well the Irish have covered their numbers. 

Wake Forest is the classic high-ceiling, low-floor squad. On one hand, the Deacons have just one cover in their past four games, that being their win over Clemson. In that stretch, they managed losses to Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and Notre Dame, all lower-half squads. On the other hand, the Deacons do have wins over Duke and Pittsburgh and covered in both games. How Wake approaches the game will have a large effect here. 

The Difference-Makers 

Wake has to find an answer for Markus Burton. When the teams met in South Bend, Burton exploded for 31 points on an otherwise ugly showing for the Irish’ shooters. Burton gets to the foul line regularly and can score from anywhere on the floor, and he’s one of the only real scorers Notre Dame has. With the Irish regularly trying to grind out games, stopping Burton becomes a big key. 

Hunter Sallis was totally ineffective when the teams met in South Bend. Sallis usually leads the Demon Deacons in scoring, but he shot just 2-for-11 from the floor and scored a mere seven points. If he’s not on his game, Wake becomes much easier to handle. 

The Pick 

Notre Dame has the momentum, both in a sense of having just played and in finishing the year strong. The Irish know they can make life miserable for their opponents, and they’re starting to enjoy that. 

Wake didn’t get the shots it wanted in South Bend, and the Deacons really haven’t put together many good performances since the win over Duke. With the Irish playing close games in most of their contests lately, backing the Deacons to cover a spread this wide seems like the wrong decision. I’ll take the points with Shrewsberry and Notre Dame. 

Dan’s Picks

Notre Dame +8.5  Under 136.5