Noche UFC: Three Best Moneyline Bets
Tracy Cortez (10-1) vs Jasmine Jasudavicius (9-2)
NOCHE UFC: THREE BEST MONEYLINE BETS – Coming off a 16-month layoff, Cortez returns to stake her claim in the flyweight division.
She is on a four-fight winning streak and was scheduled to face #11 Amanda Ribas at the end of last year. Unfortunately, she was sidelined due to a medical issue, but is now 100% healed and ready to get back on track.
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Her wrestling is the best attribute in her game. She smothers opponents and doesn’t give them any room to get their own offense going. She is relentless with takedowns and chaining them together.
Jasudavicius is fresh off the biggest win of her career when she pulled off an upset as a +200 underdog against Miranda Maverick in June.
She showed that her grappling was better than most expected and she put Maverick into some very bad positions throughout that fight. Jasudavicius trains out of one of the best gyms that Canada currently has to offer, and their expertise is in wrestling. Her striking could still use some work, but she can get away with her current skill level because of how good her wrestling is.
No matter how good Jasudavicius is with her wrestling game, I think she will still come up short against Cortez who has been a lifelong wrestler.
Jasudavicius picked up MMA no more than eight years ago, it will be tough to overcome someone who has been wrestling for their entire life. Look for Cortez to stay one step ahead and continue to be the one in dominant position throughout this fight, cashing as a near pick ‘em in this fight.
The Pick: Tracy Cortez -115
Roman Kopylov (11-2) vs Josh Fremd (11-4)
After starting his career 0-2 with the UFC, Kopylov has gotten into his groove and won three straight fights and finished each one of them.
He is a sniper with his striking approach, utilizing combinations and distance management to batter his opponents. His takedown defense looks good, allowing him to keep fights upright.
However, I think the flaw in his game is his cardio as he looks tired in almost every fight even with him getting late finishes. He has benefitted from solid matchups recently but could have his flaw exposed in upcoming fights as he takes steps up in competition.
Fresh off his victory over Jamie Pickett last month, Fremd takes this fight on short notice looking to add onto his two-fight winning streak.
Fremd was highly touted from the regional scene as he was a -245 favorite going into his fight with Gregory Rodrigues. Unfortunately, he came up short that night and his entry to the UFC was prolonged. He picked up two solid wins on the regional scene before getting the call up on short notice.
At his best, Fremd can use his wrestling background, pace, and cardio to drag his opponents into deep waters. He has slightly underwhelmed through his first four UFC appearances, but it’s just a matter of time before he breaks through.
I feel this is one of those fights where the recency bias favors the finisher in the public’s eyes. It distracts them from the fighter that has a solid all-around skill set and a better gas tank.
Sure, Fremd’s last performance against Pickett wasn’t the most awe-inspiring performance, but Pickett is a strong fighter to deal with and Fremd still managed to implement his grinding style.
If he can continue that cage push and grind against Kopylov, he should be able to take advantage of Kopylov slowing down late. It may be a late stoppage or a decision victory, but I expect Fremd to get his hand raised and we are getting a gift of a line
The Pick: Josh Fremd +255
Kevin Holland (25-9) vs Jack Della Maddalena (15-2)
This will be Holland’s third fight in just over five months.
He has won his last two fights, finishing both of his opponents. Holland has accrued a ton of experience and growth since joining the UFC in 2018. His distance striking and ability to pick his opponents apart is becoming elite.
He just needs to shore up his fight IQ a tad and he could find himself breaking through to the next level. His ground game is high level and we are starting to see him use his chokes more often.
I have questions about his takedown defense still, but he is showing improvements in that aspect as well.
Jack Della Maddalena
Maddalena had his toughest test to date last time around against short notice Bassil Hafez.
It was a grapple-heavy approach from Hafez that Maddalena struggled with early, but luckily Maddalena was able to land more damage in the final two rounds to get his hand raised.
Maddalena has elite striking, especially with the way he throws in combinations and mixes things up to the body. He had finished all of his UFC opponents until his last fight. It is great to see him get a legit name across him this weekend, just so we can see how high his ceiling is.
These two are normally massive favorites when they step in the cage, but the public was forced to pick a side this weekend with both of them going against each other.
I was surprised to see Maddalena entrenched as a -150ish favorite as I really think this fight deserves to be a 50/50 fight.
With that in mind, I’ll lean with the dog odds on Holland who should be able to utilize his distance striking to avoid pocket exchanges, which is where Maddalena thrives. I wouldn’t count out Holland looking to get some grappling going, just to change things up and keep Maddalena on his toes