NFL Wildcard Weekend: Cowboys at Buccaneers Best Bets
NFL WILDCARD WEEKEND: COWBOYS AT BUCCANEERS BEST BETS - The Cowboys travel to Raymond James Stadium to face the NFC South division winners, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Your crack analysts for the wildcard weekend are here to provide you with some sharp picks for the Monday night game to cap off the first weekend of the playoffs.
Before we get to the picks, let's look at some trends:
- Cowboys are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.
- Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
- Buccaneers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Buccaneers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Wildcard games.
- Under is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1 in Buccaneers last 7 games in January.
When: Monday, January 16th, 2023
Time: 8:15 pm EST
Where: Raymond James, Tampa, FL
How to Watch: ABC/ESPN
Public Bets: Bucs, 52%
Public Money: Bucs, 73%
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of January 16th, 2023
This is the classic Cowboys letdown spot. I see it every year when this stupid team makes the playoffs and some elite QB comes in and embarasses our mediocre coaching staff.
Now, it’s Brady’s turn to do this to me.
Ultimately, I just don’t trust the play calling enough for the Cowboys. They try too hard to establish the run and they try too hard to feed Zeke who is the second-best running back on the team. Tampa has a respectable defense. They are 15th in overall defensive DVOA and slightly better against the run at 13th. This should be a problem for the Cowboys, particularly as the Bucs defense seems to finally be getting healthy on that side of the ball.
The Cowboys defense is good, but they rely a lot on being able to disrupt the quarterback by rushing Micah Parsons and using their defensive line to disrupt plays in the backfield. The problem here is that Tom Brady isn’t an average QB. He is the GOAT and even though he’s starting to show his age a little, he still processes at an elite level. He just gets the ball out too quickly for the Cowboys to make his time in the pocket challenging.
Classic Cowboys letdown spot. Take the Bucs here.
Yesterday is a cancelled check. Tomorrow is a promissory note. Today is ready cash.
This is the biggest game of Dak's life. This one game will define if he is indeed an elite quaterback or not. Going up against the GOAT, who is likely playing his last game in Tampa, will define Prescott's early legacy.
Can he win a big game on the road? The Dallas defense has been stellar all year, and their front four is as good as it gets. Micah Parsons is a human wrecking ball, and combine that with Brady's lack of any serious mobilty and it could be a long night for the Bucs.
A one and done for Dallas would be a catastrophe - against a team that backed into the playoffs virtue of a loser bracket division.
Dallas is 12-5, playing the only team in the dance with a losing record: the 8-9 Bucs.
Here's the problem for Dallas: Tom Brady. He's 7-0 against the Cowboys lifetime. The key to this game is simple: Dak's Picks. If Prescott can limit his turnovers to one, Dallas wins this game. If its a 3-pick, the Cowboys are cooked.
This provides solace: Dallas led the league in takeaways, while Tampa was at the bottom of the pack.