It’s NFL Week 4
I’m 18-26-1 ATS. You know and I know – my winning roll is coming – big time. Weeks 4-6 is when I historically take off like a bat out of Hell.
Joining this NFL season for picks is my oldest son Jack Fredericks – he’s live on Sunday at the Jackpot Casino in Tunica MS. And lest we forget my other surrogate son Nate—now part of our family. Nate’s live on Sunday at the CAL-NEV Casino in Reno, NV.
Week 4: Here we go! Sunday, October 2
Vikes at Saints +3.5 – LONDON
These early U.K. games are always the toughest to figure out. Historically, if you take the points – you win. The games tend to be close. The problem with the Saints is that their offense at times looks like trying to pour cold honey out of a thimble: slow, boring, and one step from downright painful to watch. The Vikings are right of out a 1960’s IBM boardroom meeting: they manage games to death.
Cousins and his crew have found the safe formula for NFL survival: win games you should win, then get blown out of games you shouldn’t. That gets you 10-7 and a playoff bid.
This is a game the Vikes should win!
Get up early, grab some Joe and let’s go!
Pick: Vikes -3.5
Bills at Ravens -3
My problem here is the Ravens’ secondary. Miami lit them up in the fourth quarter like a Dairy Queen ice cream sundae when they got gassed. I don’t see the Bills coughing up a hairball two weeks in a row. Plus their O.C. might jump out of the press box. Ravens have more questions than answers right now.
Pick: Bills -3
Jags at Eagles -6.5
Stop. The Eagles are the best team in the NFL right now. Someone has to beat them. Jags this, Jags that, yeah whatever. LOL everybody in America is picking the Jags to win or cover – except me and Pete Snyder. I’m laying the wood and laughing my ass off in the second-half blowout. This is a JAGS sucker bet.
Pick: Birds -6.5
Titans at Colts -3.5
Frankly, I live for these games. I love it when the Titans are disrespected, bet against, mocked, and trashed on ESPN. Kind of like my Astros. Oh yeah, the Colts’ sycophants in the suck-up sports media have been drooling over Matt Ryan all week. Whatever. Talk is cheap. Play the game. Derrick Henry is a man on a mission, the underperforming Titan D steps up. Ryan gets sacked more times than a Kroger grocery bag.
P.S. Screw the Colts, Indy, Frank Reich, their beer sucks and Mike Pence is a loser, too. Plus, I bet Sen. Joe Morrissey on this game and I need some green for the scene! It’s cash which means Anne doesn’t know about it. I have no available free resources to pay him so I’d have to go double or nothing ‘till I win. So all trends point to Tennessee.
Pick: Titans +3.5
Washington What-Evers at Dallas -3
Seriously? Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence will have a field day against a What-Evers offensive line that ranks third-worst in the NFL.
Oh, and did I mention Carson Wentz has been sacked like a potato bag a league-leading 15 times?
Wait, sorry–Wentz is actually tied for that distinction with Joey Burrow, who the Cowboys sacked six times in their Week 2 win. My only concern is: Why is Dallas only 3?
Pick: ‘Boys -3
Jets at Steelers -3.5
You cannot lay points on Pittsburgh. It’s that simple. The Jets defense is an oxymoron. I cannot bet them either. Trubisky should win this game at home. But who knows?
Bolts at Texans +5.5
The Bolts have played a most difficult schedule in the first three games while dealing with a lot of injuries, playing twice in-division vs. Vegas and KC, then an improving Jacksonville team. This is simply a much better team than Houston. This is really a must-win for the Chargers, even this early, against an inferior team.
Pick: Bolts -5.5
Bears at Giants -2.5
I’m taking the Giants in the swamp. The Bears’ coaching staff has no faith in Justin Fields – they won’t let him throw the ball downfield! The Bears have a one-dimensional offense. Fields numbers are pathetic. He’s on a Tim Tebow track. Saquon Barkley is the difference. Giants go 3-1!
Pick: G-MEN -2.5
Seahawks at Lions -3
Yes, folks, I’ve jumped on the Lions bandwagon and I’m riding it right through Thanksgiving Day! They are at home, I like Goff slicing and dicing through a sorry Seattle defense and Geno Smith has had his day in the sun. Why not bet the Lions at home when they have a legit shot at going 2-2? You got to like what Dan Campbell has done with this team. Meanwhile, the Hawks are in a rebuild. One team is ascendant: Lions. The other is a cellar-dweller: Seahawks. Plus, I think Jarod Goff is grossly underrated. Show the Lions some love.
Pick: Lions -3
Browns at ACS (Atlanta Clown Show) +1
You just have to sit back and wait for Mariota the Maestro to throw the key pick in the last two minutes on the Browns’ 5-yard line when down by four points.
We both know its destiny for ACS to blow another game in the last minute. It’s what clowns do! This team is 1-2 for a reason.
But enough about the Clowns. Jacoby Brissett is playing much better than anyone expected. The Browns have an NFL playoff-caliber defense when healthy. With a few extra days to rest and prepare, they should ground and pound the Dirty birds into dessert.
Caution: Miles Garret is ruled out. He got into a car crash going 100+ MPH. Therefore I’m out.
Cards at Cats +1
Cats eat birds. Unless the cats have Baker Mayfield.
Kliff Kingsbury and Matt Rhule will both be coaching in college next year if their teams don’t turn things around.
I like Kingsbury’s chances better because I like his quarterback better. Mayfield won’t be in the league next year. His decline has been epic. I don’t like this Arizona team, but I like the Cats less and their coach belongs at Boston College.
Pick: Cards -1
Broncos at Raiders -2.5
The Raiders are better than 0-4. Desperation is real emotion in the NFL. I love Vegas to bounce back. Truth be told, they could be 3-0. Or 2-1. Or 1-2. This is their season. One game to get new life.
Take the desperate team in game 4. The Broncos had one legitimate drive all Monday night. One.
Let that sink in.
Pick: The Black Hole -2.5
Pats at Pack -9.5
This is a no-brainer. No Mack Jones. No Pack. This is a blowout at Lambeau. How will New England ever see the end zone? They have no offense even with Jones playing. The Pats’ defense loses interest in the second half and the rout is on. Best Bet.
Pick: Pack -9.5 Best Bet
Chiefs at Bucs -1
All of a sudden, the Bucs looked old and shorthanded Sunday. They are recruiting retired players out of bars to try out – the defense is wracked with injuries. Mahones is going to take full advantage of the Bucs injury saga. Hard to believe, but one of these two teams will be .500 on Sunday night! To win, the Bucs need low-scoring games they can manage. That becomes a tough match-up with KC. Brady is Brady, he’ll keep this game very close. Remember with so many of their personnel out last week, the goat came within a one-second delay of game to force overtime. If they win the toss, he beats the Pack.
Pick: Chiefs +1
Rams at ‘Niners -2.5
The Rams are my best bet of the week. Did you watch SF on Monday night? OMG, that offense looked sicker than a one-legged goose in a backyard bird bath. SF D is great, but the Broncos have the worst offense this side of Chicago. I love the Rams to win outright.
Pick: Rams +2.5 – BEST BET