Menu Close

NFL Week 18: Nate’s Best Bets for the 4:00 Games

NFL Week 18 Best Bets for the 4:00 Games

NFL WEEK 18 BEST BETS FOR THE 4:00 GAMES - This NFL regular season is rolling towards a fantastic conclusion with a slate of incredible 4:00 games. You can click here to read my analysis of the 1:00 games.

There is a lot to like in the afternoon slate, but I've got two picks that are sure to provide great value as we roll into Sunday night. Let's get to it.

All odds provided by DraftKings as of 1/08/2023.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-14.5, o/u 40)

Here’s where I’m at with this game: we are likely looking at our last chance to bet on Kliff Kingsbury, King of the Underdogs.

The Cardinals are horrible, and Trace McSorley is almost certainly in way over his head against a San Francisco team that is hotter than a brushfire 

However, the 49ers gave up some serious yardage in an oddly competitive game last week against Raiders backup QB, Jarrett Stidham. 

Kliff Kingsbury is a stupid 17-5-1 as a road underdog, so the track record is there for him to cover. This should be more surprising – but given all the media chatter about Kyler Murray’s lack of focus, maybe it isn’t – but the offense actually rates out a little bit better when Kyler is riding the pine. 

One last ride with King Kliff as an underdog before he gets fired at the end of the season.

Nate's Pick

Cards +14.5

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5, o/u 41.5)

This is a little bit of a happiness-hedge. I was insanely high on the Seahawks for a good portion of the season, and hemorrhaged money on them during their disastrous losing streak. 

Even with all that, they have a chance to sneak in as a wild card in the horrendous NFC.

The Seahawks must win this game, and even then they still need a little help. A win here and a Packers loss punches their playoff ticket and cashes an absolutely massive bet I made on them to make the playoffs at 12/1.

Now that you have some context for why I’ll be rooting for the Seahawks here, let me tell you why they aren’t a good play here: they suck.

I think these teams are pretty comparable in terms of how they are playing right now, so 5.5 points just feels like too damn many. Unbelievably, Baker Mayfield has been pretty solid since joining the Rams and Seattle up until last week were a complete disaster on both sides of the ball, particularly their defense which was a complete sieve. 

This line is probably inflated because Seattle is in a “must win” spot, but I think the Rams plan to give them all they can handle. 

If Seattle wins and covers, I’ll be stress-drinking early in anticipation of the Packers game tonight. If Seattle wins and doesn’t cover, same thing, but at least I’ll have cashed a ticket. If they lose outright, then I can finally stop suffering. When I put it like that, I’m basically in a no-lose situation. The suffering likely ends here.

Nate's Pick

Rams +5.5

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *