NFL Week 18 Prop Picks for Saturday's Games
NFL WEEK 18 PROP PICKS FOR SATURDAY'S GAMES - The NFL will resume regularly scheduled programming after the scariest hit I've ever seen caused the the league to cancel the Bills at Bengals game on Monday night.
This Saturday will offer two great matchups with some interesting player prop potential.
The Kansas City Chiefs (13-3) will travel to Las Vegas to play the Raiders (6-10) in an AFC West divisional game. The Chiefs are still playing for the #1 seed in the AFC and the cancellation of the Bills game last Monday further complicates the playoff seeding. The Chiefs should be very motivated to win on Saturday, which provides some great value in the player prop market.
The Tennessee Titans (7-9) battle the Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8) for the division on Saturday night. The Titans will start Joshua Dobbs for the injured Ryan Tannehill. The Titans rested most of their best players last Thursday night against the Cowboys in a meaningless game. King Henry should be ready to run against the Jacksonville team that has been living up to the hype and knocking on the door of an AFC South division title.
Let's get to some props.
Jack's Best Prop Picks
SATURDAY, JANUARY 7th, 2023
Patrick Mahomes Under 324.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
Kickoff: 4:30 pm EST on ESPN, ABC, ESPN Deportes
This one is all feel. Everyone in America is taking the over on Patrick Mahomes passing yards and why not? In 16 matchups this season, Mahomes has thrown for at least 320.5 yards. He is 1st in DYAR among quarterbacks with a minimum of 200 passes. He's only 430 yards away from breaking Peyton Manning's single season passing record, which should provide him with extra motivation.
Well, then, Jack -- the Raiders secondary must be really good at stopping the pass or else you'd be telling us to take the over.Â
Wrong!
Las Vegas ranks dead last (31st) in pass defense DVOA. This is a team that gives up a lot of chunk yardage to good quarterbacks. The last time the Chiefs played the Raiders, Travis Kelce caught four touchdown passes.
Here's my read.
I think Mahomes wants a Super Bowl, not a single season passing record. The Chiefs should jump out early here and ease off the Raiders.
Look for a lot of carries from Jerrick McKinnon in the second half and some conservative play calling from Kansas City. There's a good chance Mahomes goes light in this game and everyone on earth but you and me lose because we played it smart and took the under.
If the game gets out of hand, the Chiefs are going to protect Mahomes so as not to risk injury.
Jack's Prop |
Patrick MahomesUnder 324.5 Passing Yards (-115) |
Jerick McKinnon Anytime TD Scorer (-105)
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
Kickoff: 4:30 pm EST on ESPN, ABC, ESPN Deportes
If you picked up Jerick McKinnon in your fantasy league this year, you've instantly become the smartest man in the room.
McKinnon has quickly risen through the ranks of Chiefs running backs with major receiving threat. McKinnon recently set an NFL record among running backs after catching a 5th consecutive touchdown pass last week against the Denver Broncos.
He's functioned mostly as a pass blocker and receiving option in the flats for most of his career. This season McKinnon has rushed 70 times for 285 yards and 1 touchdown. He's a monster in the passing game, with 54 receptions for 512 yards and 8 touchdowns.
The Raiders will struggle to contain the passing game and they should be focused on Kelce in the red zone, since he tore them up in their first matchup. This leaves a lot of possibilities for McKinnon to score a touchdown.
The juice on this (-105) isn't great for an anytime touchdown scorer, but given his success and recent rends, it's a smart play.
Jack's Prop |
Jerick McKinnonAnytime TD Scorer (-105) |
Trevor Lawrence Over 266.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5)
Kickoff: 8:15 pm EST on ESPN, ABC, ESPN Deportes
Travis Etienne has been a major part of the Jaguars' recent success. He is 16th in DYAR among running backs with a minimum of 100 rushes. He has ran the ball for 1,108 yards this season, averaging 5.2 yards per carry. The man can run.
But the Titans defense can stop the running game. Etienne ran for 32 yards in his first matchup against the Titans this season. The Titans are 2nd in rushing defense DVOA. The defensive line is also 1st in adjusted line yards (3.45). The Jaguars will struggle to establish the run in this one.
This provides a great situation for us to take the over on Trevor Lawrence's passing yards. Jacksonville will need to throw in order for the Jaguars to win and the Titans secondary is one of the worst in the league. Tennessee is 28th in DVOA for pass defense.
Lawrence is a good, young quarterback who gets the ball out fast and moves quickly in the pocket. He ranks 7th in DYAR among quarterbacks with a minimum of 200 passes. That means he's more valuable to this offense than Etienne.
Look for Lawrence to have a big day through the air in a major divisional game.
Jack's Prop |
Trevor LawrenceOver 266.5 Passing Yards (-115) |