NFL Week 16 Saturday Schedule and Leans

NFL Week 16 Saturday Schedule and Leans

NFL WEEK 16 SATURDAY SCHEDULE AND LEANS – The NFL will play the majority of its Week 16 games on Saturday, December 24th. As the season wears on, the lines are getting sharp and the wins are harder to come by.

I’m going to play a little game called Hot or Not for your Saturday slate. It’s simple: some teams are hot, others are not.

I’ll give you all my leans for the Saturday games and tell you the ones you may want to avoid. We’re not talking totals here. We want to pick some sides…or not. Be sure to check back to Godzilla Wins on Saturday for our best bets.

All lines courtesy of DraftKings, as of December 22nd.

 

Hot, Hot Hot!

Lions at Panthers (+2.5)

1:00 pm on FOX

These are two teams that have been playing great football lately. Even though the Panthers lost last week to the Steelers, they kept the game close and are still in the playoff hunt.

The Lions are owners of a six game win streak. They have been playing very good football since their bye week. We have always known that the offense is a top ten unit, but the defense has been the real story. Since their bye, the Lions have skyrocketed to the top ten in most advanced metrics on defense.

This line is way too short. I’d set this at -4.5 for the Lions. Lay the 2.5.

Lean: Lions -2.5

 

Texans at Titans (-3)

1:00 pm on CBS

Despite their record, the Texans are absolutely not tanking. The Cowboys needed a last minute drive to put Houston away and the high-flying Chiefs had to do it in overtime. Houston covered two massive 14-point spreads in those games.

Now they travel to Tennessee, where they face a Titans team that has lost 4 straight and has watched its division lead slip away. Tennessee announced that Malik Willis will be starting for Ryan Tannehill, as he deals with an ankle injury. Willis has performed poorly in his two starts earlier this year.

This is a divisional game where the line is short because of the Texans’ resurgence against two playoff teams. At some point, Houston is going to win a game and grab an upset. I think it happens against the Titans.

Lean: Texans Moneyline (+140)

 

Bengals at Patriots (+3)

1:00 pm on CBS

The Bengals are 11-3 ATS this year. They’ve covered 7 straight games. Cincinnati is playing like a legitimate Super Bowl contender, as they continue to roll through opponents. Last week’s incredible comeback against the Buccaneers lets us know that this team is never out of a game.

The Patriots are 7-6-1 ATS this season and 1-3 ATS in their last four games. The embarrassing loss to the Raiders on a last second lateral that should have never happened are the least of their worries. Matt Patricia can’t run this offense and the coaching staff is sacrificing Mac Jones in the process.

The line sits at a key number out of respect for Belichick. This is great value for a Bengals team surging towards another Super Bowl run.

Lean: Bengals -3

 

Commanders at 49ers (-7)

4:05 pm on CBS

Brock Purdy (aka Brock Pretty) has led the 49ers to some nice wins. Kyle Shanahan continues to prove that he can win with any quarterback, so long as he has playmakers who can spread the field and a top-5 defensive unit. San Francisco is 9-5 ATS this season and they’ve covered in all of Purdy’s starts.

One of the reasons the Niners have covered during the Purdy era is because the public and the pros have been waiting for him to show why he was a third stringer. The lines have been short, but that’s changed now that the team keeps winning.

The Commanders have a stout pass defense and can disrupt Purdy. Washington should have beaten the Giants on Sunday Night Football last week and they should have covered. This line is way too long for a Commanders team that has shown grit this year.

Lean: Commanders +7

 

Lukewarm

Saints at Browns (-3)

1:00 pm on CBS

Prop alert! I can’t help myself here, because I don’t want to pick a side. The Browns have been bad all year and the Saints aren’t disciplined enough to stay consistent. I can’t recommend a spread yet.

I do have a nice little prop for you. Juwan Johnson has quickly become Andy Dalton’s favorite target. He had a massive game against the Falcons last week. The Browns are legendary for their ability to blow coverages. I bet Johnson breaks loose at least once.

The receiving yards props won’t be available for a day or two, but I’ll set the line at 45 yards, given his big day last week. I think you’ll get good value here.

Lean: Juwan Johnson Over 45 Total Receiving Yards

 

Giants at Vikings (-4.5)

1:00 pm on FOX

I don’t enjoy handicapping Vikings games. Their point differential is suspect and their defense is middling at best. You saw how the Colts performed last week in the first half with a lead-footed quarterback and an anemic offensive line. The Vikes may have incredible explosive play potential, but you can’t rely on that every week.

The Vikings are also constantly winning games decided by one score or less. The Giants are playing for a playoff spot and fight hard for Daboll. I would wait and see what happens with the line over the next two days. If you have to pick a side, fade the Vikings until it stops working.

Lean: Giants +4.5

 

Bills at Bears (+8)

1:00 pm on CBS

I’m not convinced the Bills are beating anyone by 8 points right now. Buffalo is 5-8-1 ATS this season 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games. Vegas respects the Bills ability to blow everyone out, but it hasn’t happened recently. As the season draws on, I expect the play calling to get more conservative so that Buffalo can protect its star quarterback.

The Bears can’t win games and they aren’t doing a great job of covering either. Chicago is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games and 1-6 ATS at home. This is an unreliable team that has been slightly overvalued due to their ability to create plays for Justin Fields. I’m not buying it.

The only reason this isn’t in the avoid category for me is because I almost always take the dog in a spread that’s larger than a touchdown. It’s just principle.

Lean: Bears +8

 

Raiders at Steelers (-2.5)

8:15 pm on NFL Network

Both of these teams have been playing better football lately. Even if Las Vegas needed a last-minute touchdown to complete a comeback against New England, the Raiders still won.

Mike Tomlin came in as an underdog last week against the Panthers and covered…again. That’s what Tomlin does. But the trends are less clear when the Steelers are favored and, while they’ve been showing up to every game, I don’t trust Pittsburgh in this spot. The Raiders are too unpredictable and the Steelers are over performing.

I’ll lean Steelers here, but hold off until Saturday. If the line moves to 3, I might suggest the Raiders.

Lean: Steelers -2.5

 

Avoid

Falcons at Ravens (-7.5)

1:00 pm on FOX

There are too many question surrounding the quarterbacks of both teams for me to recommend this game. The Ravens had announced that Lamar Jackson would start Saturday, but he hasn’t practiced all week. Huntley struggled last week in an ugly loss to the Browns.

Desmond Ridder will start for the Falcons. He looked inconsistent and wild in his first NFL start. The Falcons can dominate teams with the run game and are still in the playoff hunt. Their defense might be toast against Lamar, but, if Huntley starts? Who knows.

Avoid this game. The spread is too much for two teams with major question marks.

 

Seahawks at Chiefs (-10)

1:00 pm on FOX

It’s time to get off the Seahawks train. Seattle is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games and 1-4 SU. They seemed to have lost the Geno Smith magic that sparked such greatness earlier this season. The defense is back to giving up chunk yardage and they go up against a Chiefs offense that can punish bad pass coverage.

But the Chiefs needed overtime to beat the Texans. Enough said.

Don’t play this game. The spread is huge and neither team wants to cover.

 

Eagles at Cowboys (-6)

4:25 on FOX

As a general rule, I avoid these Eagles/Cowboys games.

Jalen Hurts isn’t going to play this week due to an injury, so Gardner Minshew will get the start. The Eagles are one game away from clinching the division, but they’ll have to do it against the Cowboys, who still see the division lead as a possibility.

This spread is baiting everyone to take the Eagles. I’m staying away, because the Cowboys love to disappoint and Gardner Minshew isn’t very good.