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NFL Week 15: Dolphins vs. Bills Odds and Best Bets

Dolphins vs. Bills Odds and Best Bets

DOLPHINS VS. BILLS ODDS AND BEST BETS -  The Miami Dolphins (8-5) travel up to snowy Orchard Park to play the Buffalo Bills (10-3) in a weather redemption game. During Week 3 of the season, the Bills traveled to Miami and lost 21-19 to a surging Dolphins team. The Bills players caught a plethora of cramps near the end of the game in the simmering Florida heat to ultimately ice the score.

The Bills are playing their type of game today. The National Weather Service's Buffalo Office has issued a lake effect warning for the area. The Bills play in Orchard Park, about fifteen miles southeast of downtown. It sits near Lake Eerie and catches the brunt of the brutal snowstorms that sweep off of the lake.

It looks like the snow might miss Orchard Park, but the wind and freezing temperatures will still play a factor.

Before we get to our picks, some trends for you sickos.

  • When average wind speeds is over 10 MPH the under is 618-496-10 since 2003
  • Tua Tagovailoa has never played a college or professional game with temperatures below 36.
  • Tua Tagovailoa has three NFL starts where the temperature has been 50 degrees or less. The Dolphins are 0-3 straight up and against the spread in those games averaging 14 points.
  • In nine games against the Dolphins, Josh Allen averaged three TDs and 317 yards of offense.
  • Josh Allen is 9-4 against the spread in primetime games.
  • Divisional unders in outdoor games after Week 13 are 91-56-4


When: Saturday 8:15 pm, December 17th, 2022

Where: New Era Field, Orchard Park, NY

How to Watch: NFL Network

Public Bets: Bills, 76%

Public Money: Bills, 70%

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of December 17, 2022

The Odds



















Nate's Pick

I used to be a card-carrying member of TuAnon, but the fun has stopped for me.

The Dolphins have been a disaster the last couple of weeks and the offense has largely stalled out outside of a handful of explosive plays. Their game against the Chargers last week wasn’t particularly close despite the score at the end of the game.

The Dolphins defense remains pretty shaky, particularly against the pass where they are 22nd in DVOA. This is a problem against Josh Allen. 

The snow may neutralize some of the passing from Allen, but I doubt that they abandon it completely. Allen has a big enough arm to move it even if there’s a little wind. 

The Dolphins just look completely lost and I don’t think this is the spot they bounce back.

Josh Allen and Co. roll the Fins here.

Nate's Pick

Bills -7

Jack's Pick

I don't usually like to play weatherman, but the smart play -- yes, maybe the only play -- is under at 43 total points. The trends we listed at the beginning of this article are so strongly in favor of the under that it would be criminal to look at a different play. Our favorite trend is when average wind speeds is over 10 MPH the under is 618-496-10 since 2003. That is a gigantic sample size that is hitting at 55%.

The weather will be a factor. Much of the snow may fall before the game, but the wind and the temperatures will all but ice the points total in this one.

 Running Down That Hill

Snowy conditions usually mean that the passing game stays at a minimum and the running backs are forced to take brutal hits in cold weather. Per Football Outsiders, the Bills have the 15th ranked DVOA for rushing offense. That is mostly due to Josh Allen's ability too use his legs. The Bills don't have many options at running back.

Allen could find himself frustrated in the run game, because the Dolphins have the 8th ranked DVOA for rushing defense. Christian Wilkins is a monster on the defensive line. The Dolphins rank 4th in adjusted line yards (3.92). If the Bills can't establish the run in bad weather, it could be difficult for them to score.

How about the Dolphins run game?

Miami ranks 17th in DVOA for rushing offense. We know they love to throw the ball, so the run game is often sacrificed for those scary receivers. This shouldn't be an issue for the Bills, who rank 3rd in DVOA for rushing defense and 3rd in adjusted line yards (3.67).

If you like defensive line play, this is your game. Don't ignore the weather as a major contributing factor. Take the under and be glad you did.

Jack's Pick

Under 43


  • Nate Perry, Senior Analyst #NoPickNate

    Nate Perry is a career college educator and literary writer who tends bar to get the inside scoop on sports. He makes his living in hardscrabble downtown Reno, Nevada. A sports handicapper by trade, Nate is legendary at the sportsbook in Reno. If you can gamble on it, chances are Nate has tried his hand at it. He's a former fiction writer who has turned to writing about sports in a desperate bid to get published, much to the chagrin of nearly everyone around him. He is featured here with his extremely large dog, Boatswain.

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  • Jack Fredericks, Editor

    Jack Fredericks is the editor of Godzilla Wins. He has a M.A. Literature and the Environment and a M.A. in Teaching. He covers the NFL, college football, and the NBA. He combines his unique perspective with advanced metrics to provide robust analysis for your enjoyment. Twitter: @JohnMattFred

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