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NFL Thursday Night Football: Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (+4)

The Odds


















The Details

Kickoff: Thursday, December 1st at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough Massachusetts

When: 8:15 pm EST

How to Watch: Amazon Prime Video

Public Bets: Bills, 59%

Public Money: Patriots, 74%

All odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of 11/30

The Word

The Buffalo Bills travel further north to face the New England Patriots in a Thursday bruiser. The Josh Allen experiment feasted in Detroit on Thanksgiving Day, stopping a red hot Lions team that had won three in a row. Buffalos pulls the Patriots this week, who fell to the Minnesota Vikings on Turkey Day. Both teams are battling for relevance and a shot at second place, as the Miami Dolphins and they Boy Genius coach continue to dominate the NFC North.

This game has everything: Bill Belichick's kids, white quarterbacks, lockdown corners, kickers. Let's check in with the Pete Rose Church of the Undeniably Sick for our trends of the week.

  • Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
  • The Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
  • The total has gone under in seven of the Bills last nine games.
  • The total has gone over in eight of New England's last 11 home games.
  • The total has gone over in four of the Pats last six games against Buffalo.
  • The Pats are 5-2 SU in their last seven games.
  • The Bills are 4-1 SU in their last five games against New England.


We Are Going Back to Massachusetts

I like the Pats here.

We all know how Belichick is as underdog.

The Bills have not looked like the Super Bowl level team we thought they might be early in the season and the effects of injury seem to hurting their defense a ton

The Patriots are playing pretty decently and the defense has been characteristically good.  I’ll take a team that seems to be improving vs a team that has been giving me a ton of questions lately.

Nate’s Pick

Patriots +4

The Godzilla

The putrid Patriots offense can't score. Did you see the Jets game? LOL! They needed a punt return just to seal the deal. Mac Jones is like a lost puppy. I feel bad for him. Maybe he'll find a new home next year.

The Bills keep rolling. They beat the Titans by 40. Um, have you seen the Titans lately? They're a Super Bowl contender.

Sorry millennials. I like offense. The Bills win in a landslide.

John’s Pick

Bills -4

Jack's Home for the Hopelessly Degenerate

The New England Effect

I've arisen from the doldrums of my mighty NBA analysis, where I'm 0-4 to start the year with absolutely zero feel for every team, in order to bring you the sexiest pick of your weekday slate. This bad boy goes out to all the people who read my Warriors analysis las Tuesday and lost. Or read my Pacers analysis last week and lost. Or tailed my Spurs pick yesterday and lost. I suck. Let's bet the Pats.

How good are the Pats this year? Nobody really knows. Steve Belichick stands on the sidelines looking intently on the field as the linebackers roam around the backfield. Mac Jones is the quarterback until they can trade for Mike White. Their offensive line knows the silent count.

The Pats have a top five defense, folks. Football Outsiders ranks the Patriots second in total defensive DVOA. They rank third in defensive pass DVOA and 7th in defensive run DVOA. This is great news for Bill and Steve, because the Bills are bad at running the football.

How bad, you ask? Buffalo is 17th in rushing DVOA. The run game is not a factor unless they are using Josh Allen's legs. This puts a ton of pressure on Allen to make big plays throughout the game, something he will struggle to do agains the Patriots' secondary.

Turnover Town

The Bills have been struggling in two areas: the red zone and turnover margin. Buffalo has turned it over nine times in their five games, including four turnovers against the Vikings in their wild loss a few weeks ago.

New England has a turnover differential of +1, but Mac Jones has been throwing about one interception per game lately. Neither of these teams can take care of the ball.

I don't like the under play here, because, even though both teams have an elite defense, they are coming off a full week's worth of rest and the Bills can put the ball in the end zone. The Patriots have been playing much better lately and the Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last five games. The Pats should be able to capitalize on the Bills poor play in the red zone and frequent trips to turnover town enough to cover this game.

Four is an awkward number, but the Pats will keep this one close.

Jack’s Pick

Patriots +4

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