NFL Picks Week 18 - Last Week of Regular Season!
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Lines by Draft Kings as 01-08-22 2:00 PM
Well, here we are! Week 18 at last! With Wild-Card weekend next Saturday we need to get our momentum going into the playoffs. The marquee match-up is Sunday night with the Chargers traveling across the desert to take on Raider Nation in Vegas. Its a playoff game in and of itself: the winner makes the dance, the loser plays golf.
I'm coming off an up week: 8-6 ATS Not great but beats losing.
This brings my season record to 90-68-2 Against The Spread (ATS). That's 22 games over .500. Close but no cigar--yet.
My season pre-playoff goal is 25 games over .500. I need to go +3 this week to get there. No problem, it's right here for taking. Like Napoleon said when he came back to Paris: "I took a stroll down the boulevard one night and saw the Crown laying in the gutter. I simply reached down and picked it up with my sword."
I will be King of Vegas! I am picking up the crown from the wise-guy tout losers who charge for their picks. Mine are free! So let's run the table, shall we?
So here we go with Week 18!
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Chiefs (-10.5) at Denver
Turn out the lights in Denver, the party's over. Actually, the party never started! It was canceled when they drop-kicked Von Miller to Tinsel Town. Chiefs have two goals here. 1. Don't go into the playoffs with a two-game losing streak. 2. Put pressure on Tennessee on Sunday to actually beat a bad team. They still have a shot at the top seed if the Titans bumble another game away to a bottom-dweller (see losses at Jets and Houston). KC blew a 21 point lead last week, and got nearly shut out in the second half against the Bungles, mustering only a measly field goal in the last thirty minutes. Denver has checked out. It's get back on track time for Chiefs.
Pick Chiefs - 10.5
Cowboys (-4) at Eagles
In a meaningless game for the home team, Eagles rookie head coach Nick Siranni decides to rest his starters. Interesting decision as the Eagles have all the momentum going into the dance. Siranni says he's got some banged up players that need a breather. On the other side of the ball, Dallas looked like poop on a scoop last week, and stunk up the place in getting shellacked by the phony Cardinals. They need a win to get back on track. Should be easy against the Philly B team.
Pick: 'Boys -4
Pack (-3) at Lions
Rodgers will start the game. The Pack is the number one seed, and they have a bye next week. So Cheese-Head Coach Matt LaFleur doesn't want his starters out for two weeks. Very smart. He also doesn't want to lose his last game to the Detroit train-wreck. I have no doubt the Lions will play hard for Coach Dan Campbell, who the players love. But one team is going to Disney and the other is the favorite to win the Super Bowl. This is a very easy win, Green Bay keeps their edge, then can rest up with a week off. In fact, I just bet more on Green Bay after writing this.
Pick: Pack -3
Bungles at Browns (-6)
The Bengals are a dangerous team--starting next week. But it's not next week. It's this week. This is the let-down game. On the road, with nothing to play for, except rest up and get ready for a home playoff game in the Queen City next week. The Browns are a fiasco on wheels, and have to be candidates for the under-achiever of the year. Baker Mayfield has looked downright over-matched most of the season, culminating in a bevy of batted down passes at Pittsburgh last week, making him look, well, just small. His commercials at Cleveland stadium are going to look silly when you lose 10 games. The Browns salvage a very disapointing season with a win at home against the Bengals practice squad.
Pick: Browns -6
Titans (-10) at Houston
Do you really think Tennessee is going to lose another game to another cellar-dweller with a number one seed in the AFC on the line? Coach Mike Vrable did not activate Derrick Henry for this game, and a bye next week gives The Beast another two weeks to get ready. The Titans are fortunate to be in this position: win and get the top seed. Last time they let Houston in the game early and then handed them a gift in the form of five turnovers. That is not going to happen again. This team is primed for a deep run, and they believe in their destiny. Teams with chips on their shoulders are dangerous in January. Houston wants their nightmare to end.
Pick: Titans -10
Colts (-15) at Jags
It's the bozo bowl!
Jacksonville fans are so distraught over their three-ring circus of a season that they started a social media frenzy to have everyone show up in the stands dressed as clowns. That's right: clown faces and clown costumes for a clown team. This promises to be hilarious! We heard game day vendors are hawking clown noses and bozo hair at the entrances around the stadium! Meanwhile on the field, Trevor Lawrence has a quarterback rating so low it could crawl under a snake in a top hat! Frank Reich doesn't blow this game when a playoff spot is on the line. Just give the ball to Jonathan Taylor 150 times and watch the pins fly. This is sixty minutes the Jaguars just want to go away.
Pick: Colts -15
Bears at Vikes (-4.5)
It's the Fire The Coach Bowl! Which coach gets fired first on what time on Monday? I'm betting on Vikes coach Mike Zimmer by 10:00 AM over Bears Coach Nagy at 1:00 PM. The over-under on Nagy is noon. So why I am betting the Vikings? They are at home in the Dome, and Zimmer flipped the proverbial bird to the dumb-ass Minneapolis sports media nit-wits who criticized him for playing all his starters Sunday in a "meaningless game." Zimmer shot back: no games are meaningless when you are a professional. So the Vikes win one for their old ball coach and he goes out with a win. My advice to Zimmer: move to Florida and leave the lib-tards behind. Take the Jags job. At least you'll be in a free state.
Purple People Eaters -4.5
Seattle at Cards (-5.5)
Sure, the phony Cards, win a game at home against the biggest flop team this side of Cleveland. I've concluded the Cardinals are smoke and mirrors and I'm betting against them next week regardless of who they play in Wild Card Weekend. But they win here because the Seahawks packed it in weeks ago. Pete Carroll needs to take a month off and sit on the beach and contemplate life without Russel Wilson. Maybe he can cut some more VAX and Booster shot public service messages? Another lefty woke Democrat who loves to virtue signal around Seattle while his city burned down this summer. Hey, what about that USC tittle you cheated to win and had to give it back, Pete?
Pick: Cards -5.5
Pats (-6.5) at Fins
The Fish had a nice run. The Pats are gearing up for the playoffs. There is not let-downs or "rest the starters" mantra in Billy B's playbook. This is business as usual for New England. Also, it is payback time. Fish won on opening day in Foxboro.
Pick: Pats -6.5
Jets at Bills (-16.5)
The rout is on. The Bills had their mini-let down last week, and as I said, found themselves in a dogfight with the Atlanta Clown Show (ACS). This week, not so much. Jets are a desperate franchise with some hope in the name of Zach Wilson. But Buffalo thinks they are going to the Super Bowl and the mafia will be out in full force. They still can lose the division so I don't see the Jets in this game. Bills by 30+. It's pad the stats time. You know I am not afraid the lay the wood.
Pick: Bills -16.5
Cats at Bucs (-8)
Think about what that whack-job Antonio Brown did last week. Then think about how gracious Tom Brady was. He'll take his anger out on the field, not in the press room. Carolina is a team is search of an identity. If Cam Newton is the answer in Charlotte, it must be a really stupid question. Don't resurrect the dead. As Vernon Jones says, "There's a dead cat at the end of this line."
Pick: Tom Bradys -8
Saints (-3.5) at Atlanta Clown Show (ACS)
I'm all in on the Clown Show again! Let's go Dirty Birds! This game actually is sad because the Saints are better than their record. Injuries, Covid protocols and having no quarterback did them in. While they can get in the playoffs with a win and a San Fran loss, the Clown Show hates the Saints and would love to conclude an otherwise miserable season by kicking the Saints out of the playoffs. New Orleans defense is for real when healthy. ACS is loose and ready to have some fun at home in the German Car Dome. Take the points and enjoy the game.
Pick: ACS +3.5
Niners at Rams (-4)
Who cares who plays at quarterback? If San Francisco wins, they are in. If the Rams win, they get a home game. The Forty-Niners are playing for their lives. And you get four points. Stafford is good for at least one pick, and the Rams over-rated defense is good for a roughing the passer penalty on fourth and fifteen at the Rams forty yard line. A pick-six here, a fumble there, and punt return and maybe a strip sack we have ourselves a winner-winner chicken dinner. San Fran is better than you think. In the famous words of Jim Mora: "Playoffs??!!" Yes, Charlotte, there is a light at the end of the tunnel. It's just that it's a big ole' freight train coming right at us. 49er's are a desperate bunch. Like a cornered rat, they come right at you. Don't corner the rat. Kill it. For the Rams, its too late.
Pick: San Fran +4
WFT (-7) at Giants
Please make it all just go away. Giants are starting a Division II team.
Pick: WFT -7
Chargers (-3) at Raiders
It's the John Madden Bowl! Here we go: It's the ghost of Al Davis in Vegas on a Sunday night in a win or go home game-the last game of the season! You can't get better than this. Raider nation is on steroids! On paper, the Bolts are a better team on both sides of the ball. But games are not played on a spreadsheet. Give Derek Carr in the biggest game of his life at home with a sold out crowd of crazed Raider fans all gambling and betting on the Raiders and I'll show you the day's upset. Emotion matters. The place will be a mad house. Al Davis, we love you, man and you said it best: "Just win, baby." This is for you--and John Madden.
Pick: Raider Nation +3
Bonus Pick Monday Night
Georgia (-3) vs. Roll Tide
Georgia -3. This is my best bet of the entire college season. You really think this Georgia team loses to Nick Saban twice? Enough said. Cash the ticket.
Pick: Dogs -3
Let's Go Brandon!
Bears At Seahawks (-6.5)
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Anything beats watching this snooze fest. Who cares? Good Lord, get a life. If you are betting this game call gamblers anonymous now. You're morphing into degenerate status. No Pick.