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NFL Picks Week 17: Happy New Year Edition

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Lines by Draft Kings as 01-01-22 2:00 PM

Happy New Year! 2022 is going to be a great year in sports betting! So get your accounts ready to rock and roll. The Vegas hotel sports books say they made the biggest profits in history in 2021. Naturally, that came from the public–it’s estimated that the betting public lost more money on sports gambling in 2021 than in the previous three years combined. The reason is simple: the advent of “prop” bets or in-game betting has been off the charts, driven by the Millennials. That’s why we stick with betting the old-fashioned way: bet the line.

I’m coming off a crap week: 6-7 with some blowouts. Like my late father Sam always said: “Better to be blown out early than lose by one. Either way you pay the man, but at least you saved some time.”

This brings my season record to 82-62-2 ATSThat’s 20 games over .500. My season pre-playoff goal is 25 games over .500. Let’s go! I need to go +5 this week to get there.

The last two weeks of this regular NFL season is a hot bed of action in the AFC, where only three out of 16 teams have been eliminated! 13 teams still have a legit shot in the playoffs, which has been permanently expanded to seven teams this season from the long time six team format. I like the rule change. That extra berth creates a lot more excitement for teams and their fans on the bubble.

I feel a really good week coming on. I may run the table. Let’s go Brandon!

So here we go with Week 17

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Champa Bay (-13.5) at Jets

Tom Brady and his Bucs are still fighting for a bye. They can win out while the Pack loses a game. The Jets have shown life here and there but they should have lost to the lowly Jags last week at home. Only a late goal-line stand saved them. This is a matter of how many points the Bucs win by. The game will never be in doubt. No doggies-lay the lumber. Bye J-E-T-S!
Pick: Champs -13.5


Rams (-5.5) at Ravens

Sorry Baltimore fans, it’s over. Your QB is out again, you went from the number one seed in the AFC to losing four straight to now getting knocked out of the playoffs. The secondary circus act your team put on last week against the Bungles was downright embarrassing. 550 yards passing allowed? Seriously? Rams are taking no prisoners. See ya’ Ravens. Blow out in Baltimore.
Pick: Tinsel Towns -5.5


Chiefs (-4.5) at Bungles

It’s time. To have the balls to bet on Cincinnati at home against the hottest team in the NFL. Call this a throw caution to the wind pick, but these aren’t your father’s Bungles. Yes, KC is on fire, and once again their bandwagon is overflowing with fawning media hype. But this Cincy bunch is playing without fear and without inhibition. They think they can beat anybody right now. And why not? Joey Burrow summed it last week: he said Cincinnati is boring city, has no night life, and they don’t have anything else to do but go to practice and hang out in the video game room. There may be something special brewing in the Queen City. It’s like the Boomer and Breech days. Or maybe Gary Anderson? It’s revenge of the Ice Bowl.
Pick: Bungles + 4.5


Eagles (-4.5) at WFT

I’d lay 21. The Eagles have fought their way back into the playoff hunt the old fashioned way: with dirt and grit. WFT is a sick franchise. Watching that Dallas game last week in prime time was the most disturbing sixty minutes of pro football I have witnessed in recent memory. It was a horrific sight. Everybody has injuries, every team has Covid problems. But to fold that way on a Sunday night — and then throw punches on the bench? This is a pathetic organization that I want no part of right now. This is a no-brainer. Hold my beer.
Pick: Eagles -4.5


ACS (Atlanta Clown Show) at Bills (-14.5)

Go Clown Show! I don’t like Buffalo in this spot. For the Bills, it’s got let-down written all over it. Go to New England, win the biggest game of the year, come home against a weak opponent, come out flat, fall behind, lose the whole game or don’t cover. I have seen this too many times before. I have no interest in betting the Bills and giving up three scores. While the ACS is essentially toast for the playoffs, with only the narrowest of pathways to get in, they still have a shot. Don’t be shocked if the Bills are losing at the half. Take the points.
Pick: Clown Show + 14.5


Jags at Pats (-16)

This is easy. The Pats blow out all the bad teams. Let’s take a peak: beat Jets by 19, beat Jets by 41, beat Cats by 16, beat Browns by 38, beat Falcons by 25. Enough said. Jaguars want to go back to Florida and play putt-putt. Easy money, Pats need the win, and their they’ll want to get their MOJO back in Foxboro.
Pick: Pats -16


Raiders at Colts (-7)

This is a very tough game. Colts are playing lights out, they are at home and need to keep winning to stay in the solid playoff picture. If they lose out — they likely get bounced. Raiders need to win or they are packing their bags for a January vacation. It’s likely both Carr and Wentz will start at QB for their respective clubs. I’m staying with the hot team at home. I got burned last week. I’m neither stubborn nor stupid. Oh, and I’m going with Jonathan Taylor, who’ll likely run all over a very suspect Raiders ground defense.
Pick: Colts -7


Fish at Titans (-3.5)

It’s crunch time in NashVegas. Either the Titans are for real or they are not. At home, coming off a huge come from behind win Vs. San Francisco last Thursday night–this is a game that elite teams win. Their players are quietly getting healthy and coming back on the field one by one. Julio is back, AJ is back, Lewan is back, McNichols is back, Dupree is back, and the King is on track for next week. Meanwhile the Fins have won seven straight, and had they not blown last-second leads to Jacksonville and Atlanta, they would be 10-5 and fighting for the East division crown. Who did the Fish beat in this run? Texans, Ravens, Jets, Cats, Giants, Jets, Saints…but wins are wins in the NFL, right? Tennessee has a chip on their shoulder, Vrable says they get no respect. Giants DB Logan Ryan popped off this week and said the Titans fans suck. They have a chance to earn that respect at home on Sunday. With their fans.
Pick: Titans -3.5


Giants at Bears (-6.5)

Please, can the Giants just go away?
Pick: Bears -6.5


Texans at 49’ers (-11.5)

Oh yeah, San Francisco is pissed over blowing that game last Thursday night in Nashville. This is an angry bunch, facing a hapless Texans squad playing out the string. But, Jimmy G might be out with bad thumb. Yawn. My 17 year-old son Joe could QB for the ‘Niners this week and win in Santa Clara. Who cares if Jimmy G plays or not. Just run the ball 50 times. Texans are going for the first pick in the draft. They had their big win last week. Now reality sets in.
Pick: ‘Niners -11.5


Broncos at Chargers (-7.5)

Something about the Bolts I don’t like or trust. They showed it last week with their pathetic meltdown in Houston. The Broncs are scheming for next year, they are on the road with a very slim chance to make the dance. The Bolts bounce back in a big way and get in the playoffs driver seat. Unpredictable as they are, this is a must-win game for their season. In their brand new fancy stadium, they romp.
Pick: Bolts -7.5


Cards at Cowboys (-6)

The Cardinals stunk up the place last week, now on a three game losing streak. I kept asking myself all during the game: “Self, how the heck did this team win 10 games?” I have no clue. This is an organization that is heading south fast, and getting worse by the quarter. They peaked too soon, they had injuries, things went awry and now they come to Dallas who is on a roll. Dak had just too much fun last week, and that defense looked like they did in the Jethro Pugh of the Doomsday Defense days. Arizona has to prove they haven’t collapsed. Plus their head coach Kliff Kingsburry can’t buy a win in December. His record in November and December is 8-17. Can we say choke city Kliff?
Pick: ‘Boys-6


Lions at Seahawks (-7.5)

Sorry, I have to clean the garage. Or wash the dishes. Or rake leaves. Or change the oil. Or clean out the cat box. All are better choices than watching this stinker.

No Pick


Cats at Saints (-6.5)

LMAO! The Saints have no players and the Kitty Cats have no coaches. Who can bet this game? This is why the bookmakers in Vegas had a record sports betting year: the public betting on silly games like this. Here’s my advice: whoever you bet will lose. Sorry, I actually have a life.

No Pick


Vikes at Pack (-13.5)

No Kirk Cousins, no Vikings chance to win. It’s sad that the Vikings once promising outlook back in August goes down in flames in Lambeau with their QB hurt. This was a sad and painful season for Vikings fans almost from the very first game. I don’t see Minnesota scoring much here without Cousins, and Rodgers really wants that week off in the bye to rest his ailing toe. Green Bay is getting primed for a Super Bowl run. Don’t look back. Good bye Minny, and take your woke city with you.

Pick: Pack -13


Brownies (-3.5) at Steelers

It’s over Ben. Thanks for the memories. We agree with you, its time to go out to pasture with dignity. The Steelers are aging, slow, tired, tedious and fading fast. The beat down at Arrowhead last week was tough to watch if you are a Steelers fan. This is Ben’s last game at Heinz Field and it won’t be pretty. Don’t expect Baker Mayfield to throw another three interceptions. The Browns showed life last week in Green Bay, and despite a dismal Mayfield performance, almost pulled it out in a hostile Christmas Day environment. The Steel Curtain has come down. Nostalgia doesn’t win NFL games when a potential playoff berth is on the line.
Pick: Brownies -3.5

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