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NFL Monday Night Football: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts

John Fredericks, Publisher
Pittsburgh Steelers
Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images

The Odds

Matchup

Open

Spread

Total

Moneyline

Steelers

(3-7)

+3

+2.5

o39.5

+120

Colts

(4-6-1)

u39.5

-2.5

u39.5

-120

The Picks

Nate

Steelers +2.5

John

Colts -2.5

Jack

Teaser Town (+6): Steelers +2.5 and Under +/- 45.5

Kickoff: 8:15 PM EST

Where: Estadio Azteca, Mexico City

TV: ESPN Deportes

Odds: Pittsburgh +2.5, o/u 39.5

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of 11/28

The Word

Football is a game of inches and sometimes the most interesting thing when watching the game is to measure the length (in inches, of course) of Jeff Saturday's beard. The Indianapolis Colts (4-6-1) face off against the Pittsburgh Steelers (3-7) in a Monday Night game nobody asked for. This game has everything: a rookie quarterback, bad offensive lineman, a legendary coach, kickers.

If you're anything like us, you can't wait to burn through some more money on the Monday Nighter. A few thoughts for the Pete Rose Church of Sickos.

83% of the public money is on the Steelers tonight, which is most likely why the line hasn't moved to +3.

The Colts offensive line is the worst in the league. Football Outsiders has them as the worst adjusted sack rate (9.04%). They'e given up a mind-blowing 40 sacks this season.

Since 2007, Mike Tomlin is 48-30-5 against the spread as an underdog, and 39-44 straight up as a dog.

Jeff Saturday is 2-0 against the spread in his career, so there's that.

 

 

NATE: The T.J. Watt Experience

This is actually sort of an interesting game between two teams that are playing much better as of late.

TJ Watt has returned to the Steelers defense which has been massive them, and Pickett is starting to look more comfortable. The Colts are also looking better, but I’m still having a hard time believing that this turnaround is legitimate when headed by a former player with no prior NFL or college coaching experience.

We, along with every other gambler, love Mike Tomlin as a ‘dog, so we’ll ride with him in that spot yet again. You can Google about a million different trends that support Tomlin in these spots, but if you don’t feel like doing that, I’ll give you one. Mike Tomlin is 39-17-1 against the spread as an underdog after Week 5. His teams get better as the season goes along.

Nate's Pick: Steelers +2.5

JOHN: Just When I Thought I Was Out...

The Colts were never supposed to be this bad. The Steelers were.

Jeff Saturday might be a neophyte head coach, but he knows the game.

He’s likely to return next season and some lackluster Colts players have found a new reason to play inspired football the last two games. Pittsburgh is on the road going nowhere fast.

They’re now tied with Vegas as super long shots to make the playoffs. The Steelers got pasted by Cincinnati last week while Indy was one good stop short of besting the Eagles. I like the Colts at home on national TV to prove they’re not this seasons AFC circus act.

John's Pick: Colts -2.5

JACK: More Exotic Bets for the Over Exposed

After my absolute 5-0 runner yesterday, I'm back for more exotic bets, props, and parlays for the Pete Rose Church of Sickos. Our congregation might be small, but we are a fervent bunch dedicated to all sorts of teasers, pleasers, parlays, and props. Come join us. We are happy.

Let's take a trip to Teaser Town.

The Steelers are going to wreck the porous offensive line of the Indianapolis Colts. This paves the way for the Matty Ice of old. No, not the one who scrambled for 39 yards two weeks ago. The guy who throws picks when a defensive tackle is barreling down on him. I expect the Colts to have trouble scoring and for Matty Ice to throw a pick or twelve.

As for the Steelers, I can't trust Kenny Pick Six to fare much better against a stout Colts defense. Mike Tomlin's numbers against the spread give me great confidence that they will cover, but not enough to hammer them out right. I'm going to tease the Steelers off that +2.5 with the under. This means we'll add six points to each, so I get the Steelers +8.5 and the under at 44.5. Both have to hit for me to win.

Play the over on the total sacks as well. T.J. Watt is going to feast.

Jack's Pick: Teaser Town, Steelers +8.5 and Under Total Points +/- 45.5

Authors

  • John Fredericks, Publisher

    John Fredericks, the Godzilla of Truth, has spent more than 40 years in the media, previously working as a journalist, newspaper editor, and television host. Fredericks is an avid sports fan, journalist, and handicapper. He brings his unique voice and style, crafted by years of political commentary broadcast on the airwaves, to the world of sports. He cut his teeth on the radio announcing high school football, basketball and baseball games. His weekly column, You Can't Buy Culture, follows ebbs and flows of a diehard fan at the whims of his favorite teams.

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  • Jack Fredericks, Editor

    Jack Fredericks is the editor of Godzilla Wins. He has a M.A. Literature and the Environment and a M.A. in Teaching. He covers the NFL, college football, and the NBA. He combines his unique perspective with advanced metrics to provide robust analysis for your enjoyment. Twitter: @JohnMattFred

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  • Nate Perry, Senior Analyst #NoPickNate

    Nate Perry is a career college educator and literary writer who tends bar to get the inside scoop on sports. He makes his living in hardscrabble downtown Reno, Nevada. A sports handicapper by trade, Nate is legendary at the sportsbook in Reno. If you can gamble on it, chances are Nate has tried his hand at it. He's a former fiction writer who has turned to writing about sports in a desperate bid to get published, much to the chagrin of nearly everyone around him. He is featured here with his extremely large dog, Boatswain.

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