Teaser Town (+6): Steelers +2.5 and Under +/- 45.5
Football is a game of inches and sometimes the most interesting thing when watching the game is to measure the length (in inches, of course) of Jeff Saturday's beard. The Indianapolis Colts (4-6-1) face off against the Pittsburgh Steelers (3-7) in a Monday Night game nobody asked for. This game has everything: a rookie quarterback, bad offensive lineman, a legendary coach, kickers.
If you're anything like us, you can't wait to burn through some more money on the Monday Nighter. A few thoughts for the Pete Rose Church of Sickos.
83% of the public money is on the Steelers tonight, which is most likely why the line hasn't moved to +3.
The Colts offensive line is the worst in the league. Football Outsiders has them as the worst adjusted sack rate (9.04%). They'e given up a mind-blowing 40 sacks this season.
Since 2007, Mike Tomlin is 48-30-5 against the spread as an underdog, and 39-44 straight up as a dog.
Jeff Saturday is 2-0 against the spread in his career, so there's that.
NATE: The T.J. Watt Experience
This is actually sort of an interesting game between two teams that are playing much better as of late.
TJ Watt has returned to the Steelers defense which has been massive them, and Pickett is starting to look more comfortable. The Colts are also looking better, but I’m still having a hard time believing that this turnaround is legitimate when headed by a former player with no prior NFL or college coaching experience.
We, along with every other gambler, love Mike Tomlin as a ‘dog, so we’ll ride with him in that spot yet again. You can Google about a million different trends that support Tomlin in these spots, but if you don’t feel like doing that, I’ll give you one. Mike Tomlin is 39-17-1 against the spread as an underdog after Week 5. His teams get better as the season goes along.
Nate's Pick: Steelers +2.5
JOHN: Just When I Thought I Was Out...
The Colts were never supposed to be this bad. The Steelers were.
Jeff Saturday might be a neophyte head coach, but he knows the game.
He’s likely to return next season and some lackluster Colts players have found a new reason to play inspired football the last two games. Pittsburgh is on the road going nowhere fast.
They’re now tied with Vegas as super long shots to make the playoffs. The Steelers got pasted by Cincinnati last week while Indy was one good stop short of besting the Eagles. I like the Colts at home on national TV to prove they’re not this seasons AFC circus act.
John's Pick: Colts -2.5
JACK: More Exotic Bets for the Over Exposed
After my absolute 5-0 runner yesterday, I'm back for more exotic bets, props, and parlays for the Pete Rose Church of Sickos. Our congregation might be small, but we are a fervent bunch dedicated to all sorts of teasers, pleasers, parlays, and props. Come join us. We are happy.
Let's take a trip to Teaser Town.
The Steelers are going to wreck the porous offensive line of the Indianapolis Colts. This paves the way for the Matty Ice of old. No, not the one who scrambled for 39 yards two weeks ago. The guy who throws picks when a defensive tackle is barreling down on him. I expect the Colts to have trouble scoring and for Matty Ice to throw a pick or twelve.
As for the Steelers, I can't trust Kenny Pick Six to fare much better against a stout Colts defense. Mike Tomlin's numbers against the spread give me great confidence that they will cover, but not enough to hammer them out right. I'm going to tease the Steelers off that +2.5 with the under. This means we'll add six points to each, so I get the Steelers +8.5 and the under at 44.5. Both have to hit for me to win.
Play the over on the total sacks as well. T.J. Watt is going to feast.