NFL Conference Championship Early Line Reactions

NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP EARLY LINE REACTIONS – I suffered a brutal NFL Divisional round shellacking over the weekend. My picks ATS went 0-3 and the only win I was able to find on the board was the UNDER in the Packers/Niners game. Thank god for the rain. But the NFL Conference Championship games are just a week away and I’m coming back to the buffet of losses for another chance at redemption.

Will the Chiefs upset the Ravens and bring Taylor Swift to her first Super Bowl or can Lamar continue to shake off those demon playoff woes? Can the Lions send the city of Detroit to the promised land or will Goff fall apart against the Niners defense? I’m not sure the answer to any of those questions, but we should at least see if we can cover.

Read below for the NFL conference championship early line reactions. 

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup	Open	Spread	Points	Moneyline
Kansas City Chiefs (13-6 SU, 11-8 ATS)	+3	+3	o44.5	+140
Baltimore Ravens (14-4 SU, 12-6 ATS)	u44.5	-3	u44.5	-166

Odds by DraftKings as of January 22nd, 2024

Chiefs vs. Ravens Spread Reaction

I drank the Bills Mafia kool-aid last week and got torched yet again by the Chiefs. Kansas City is a lot like the San Antonio Spurs during the Duncan years: just pick them to win the Super Bowl every year; half the time you’ll be right.

I doubted the Ravens could handle the Texans and cover the 9.5 point spread and Lamar Jackson & co. did exactly that. Baltimore looks like the best team in the NFL, with weapons everywhere and a defense that absolutely swarms. I’d hate to have to play them, but if any team is up for the task, then you know it’s the Chiefs.

The line opened at +3.5 and has already been hammered down to +3. I expect to see it settle around +2.5, which means I’d prefer to take the Chiefs at +3 right now. There’s no way I’m missing my opportunity to take the Chiefs in the playoffs as an underdog again. I’ll ride K.C. until the train stops cashing tickets.

Chiefs vs. Ravens Point Total Reaction

Point totals in the playoffs rely so heavily on the weather, so I’m not too keen on picking a side until we know exactly what will be happening in Maryland this Sunday. However, both of these teams are comfortable playing in cold weather and in outdoor stadiums.

I don’t think we’ll see an adjustment to the game plan for either team.

If I had to take a side right now, I’d go with the OVER, simply because of the late game heroics each quarterback is capable of. Getting to 45 points shouldn’t be too much of a problem for either team, even with a stout Ravens defense.

Chiefs vs. Ravens Moneyline Reaction

I’ll take plus money on the Chiefs until they prove to me they can’t win high stakes games anymore.

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Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup	Open	Spread	Points	Moneyline
Detroit Lions (14-5 SU, 13-6 ATS)	+6.5	+6.5	o51	+230
San Francisco 49ers (13-5 SU, 9-9 ATS)	u51	-6.5	u51	-285

Lions vs. 49ers Spread Reaction

Given the 49ers mercurial performance against an overachieving Packers squad, I’m a little surprised to see the spread this high for the championship game. Yes, the Niners are clearly the best team in the NFC. And yes, they have been in this spot many, many more times than Detroit. Oh, and the Lions are going to have to win a game outside of the friendly confines of Ford Field.

Even still, I don’t think I trust Brock Purdy enough to lay 6.5 points in a conference championship game. The Lions defense will struggle to contain the explosive weapons all over the field for the 49ers. Consequently, I’m not so sure the 49ers will be able to contain the Lions on offense either. This game should be closer to -3 for the Niners and I wouldn’t be surprised if the spread started to fall by the end of the week.

Lions vs. 49ers Point Total Reaction

While I think both teams will score in this game, I worry that 51 is too high for the point total. Goff is notoriously better inside a dome than he is playing in the elements and the weather in San Francisco this time of year can be weird. I’ve never felt that the 49ers play with a ton of urgency even when they have the lead and I don’t expect them to put up 40 points.

I know this is contrary to my opinion for the spread, but, if I had to pick a side today, I’d go with the UNDER.

Lions vs. 49ers Moneyline Reaction

There’s no value is taking the Niners at such a high price. If you think Detroit is bound by destiny, might as well sprinkle a little action on the Lions moneyline and pray to Eminem.