New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: Expert Pick and Prediction – July 5, 2023

NEW YORK METS VS. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – July 5, 2023 — Is this surge a blip on the radar, or are the New York Mets starting to climb back into the playoff race?

The situation became rather dire in Queens when the Mets fell 10 games under .500. That is a far cry from where they were supposed to be when this season began. Any thoughts of winning the NL East have long been laid to rest with Atlanta running away with the National League’s best record.

But there’s still time to get a wild card spot, as long as the Mets don’t wait much longer. New York has won three in a row for the first time since sweeping the Phillies on June 1:

The Mets haven’t won four straight against National League foes all year, making this a potential turning point in their season.

For the Diamondbacks, it’s been amazing what having a bullpen that’s actually decent can do. Arizona’s bullpen has been its biggest weakness over the past two seasons, which led to a 74-88 mark last year. This year, the Diamondbacks’ relievers actually do a good job of holding leads, which is one reason why Arizona leads the NL West with a 50-36 mark.

But with Los Angeles and San Francisco not far behind, Arizona’s hold on the West is tenuous at best. The Diamondbacks saw the schedule get tougher against the Giants, Rays and Angels over the past two weeks and didn’t respond well, going just 4-6.

Tommy Henry has been their streak stopper for the past month now, as Arizona has won his past seven starts. They’ll need him to come up big again here.

The Odds

This has been a matchup the Mets have relished for years. The teams only play six to seven times a year by virtue of being in different divisions, but the Mets have dominated the Diamondbacks, winning 20 of the past 27 meetings.

First Pitch

When: Wednesday, July 5th at 9:40 p.m. EDT

Where: Chase Field, Phoenix

Starting Pitchers: Kodai Senga, NYM (6-5, 3.53 ERA, 101 K’s) vs. Tommy Henry, ARI (5-1, 4.08 ERA, 49 K’s) 

Public Bets: 52% on Arizona

Public Money: 60% on Arizona

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of July 5th, 2023

New York vs. Arizona In-Season Trends

The teams have shown a tendency to put up runs in Arizona while failing to do so in New York. In their past five meetings, the UNDER has cashed three times with a push, but the majority of those matchups came in Queens. In their past seven matchups in Phoenix, the OVER has hit five times with a push.

Players to Watch

A key for Kodai Senga’s success is how many bats he misses, which makes for a nervous situation in this game. On one hand, Senga’s been dealing pretty well lately, having topped his total of 5.5 strikeouts in eight of his past nine starts. On the other, Arizona doesn’t strike out very often.

The Diamondbacks have just 653 K’s on the season, fewer than everyone except Washington and Cleveland. When Senga doesn’t miss bats, he’s ineffective, as shown in losses to Cincinnati and Toronto.

Corbin Carroll continues to shine as a rookie for Arizona, as he launched his 18th home run on Tuesday to move back into the Arizona team lead for homers. He’s been day-to-day with a shoulder issue, but if he’s fully healthy, he’s a good bet to continue his hitting prowess after two hits off the Mets last time out.

The Pick

The money has moved to Arizona, and that makes me a little nervous, because the public usually doesn’t know what it’s doing on its picks.

In this case, however, it makes too much sense to ignore. The Diamondbacks have the right kind of lineup to have success against Senga, and the Mets haven’t shown this is sustainable long-term.

Expect a fair amount of runs, and expect the Mets to make it five losses in six with Senga on the mound.