Nebraska vs. Indiana Expert Pick and Prediction – February 21, 2024

NEBRASKA VS. INDIANA EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – February 21, 2024 — These are strange times in the Big Ten. Indiana sits at 14-11 with virtually no hope to make the NCAA tournament. At this point, the Hoosiers will be lucky to avoid playing on Wednesday in the Big Ten tournament, a fate reserved for the four weakest teams in the league.

On the other hand, Nebraska has its sights set on an NCAA bid. The Cornhuskers appear to have done enough as long as they don’t take a bad loss, and their remaining slate is filled with nothing but bad loss opportunities. Among their final five games, the Huskers won’t face a team with a winning record in the Big Ten. 

But the Hoosiers have won seven of the past eight meetings with Nebraska. And that’s why Indiana is still giving points; the books don’t buy that the balance of power has completely swung. And that makes this a true opportunity for Nebraska: tournament teams don’t lose this type of game.

The Odds 

Matchup	Open	Spread	Points	Moneyline
Nebraska (18-8 SU, 16-10 ATS)	O145	+1.5	O147.5	+105
Indiana (14-11 SU, 11-13-1 ATS)	-1	-1.5	U147.5	-125

Tipoff 

When: Wednesday, February 21 at 8:30 p.m. EST

Where: Assembly Hall, Bloomington, Ind.

TV: BTN

Public Bets: 51% on Indiana

Public Money: 51% on Indiana

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of February 21st, 2024

Related: Connecticut vs. Creighton Expert Pick

Nebraska vs. Indiana In-Season Trends

There’s another reason why Nebraska’s getting points: the Huskers have been a home-court hero. Nebraska has played seven Big Ten road games and won a grand total of none of them, and they’ve gone 1-6 ATS away from Lincoln. The Huskers’ only road win of the season came at Kansas State, their one non-conference road test. Otherwise, they’ve mostly been cannon fodder on the road, with only two of their seven road defeats (Illinois and Rutgers) coming closer than 10 points.

For the Hoosiers, it hasn’t made much difference where they’ve played lately. The Hoosiers have gone 2-6 SU in their past eight games, and they’ve lost home games to Northwestern (a tournament team) and Penn State (definitely not). The defense has been a major problem for the Hoosiers as of late; Indiana has conceded at least 73 points in each of its past four games.

The Difference-Makers

In the first meeting, Nebraska’s 3-point shooting made the difference. The Huskers didn’t shoot well overall, but they took so many 3-pointers that it didn’t matter. Brice Williams and Keisei Tominaga sank seven of 14 from behind the arc, and it made up for the Hoosiers both out-rebounding the Huskers and outshooting them inside of 22 feet.

Indiana needs the best version of Kel’el Ware in this game. The Hoosiers’ biggest strength is their ability to cash in on second chances, and Ware has come up with 24 rebounds in his past two games. Ironically, his weakest rebounding game is the only one Indiana won out of its past four, but the Hoosiers don’t have the shooters to take advantage of Nebraska’s biggest weakness on the perimeter. If the Hoosiers are going to win this, they have to do the work inside.

The Picks

Shooting doesn’t tend to travel, even against a defense that’s as weak as Indiana’s has been. The Huskers haven’t won anything on the road in the Big Ten because they’re too dependent on their shots. When they try to get inside or try to rebound, they’re a lot less effective.

Picking Indiana to do anything has been a bad idea lately, but Nebraska’s poor performances away from home can’t be overlooked. The Huskers also haven’t shot well in the state of Indiana lately, as they’ve lost their past three against the Hoosiers in Indiana by double digits and never exceeded 65 points.

Dan’s Picks

Indiana -1.5 Nebraska TTU 74.5