NBA on a Tuesday: Warriors at Mavericks (+1)

The Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Warriors (11-10)	PK	-1	o227.5	-110
Mavericks (9-10)	u222.5	+1	u227.5	-110

The Word

The Golden State Warriors face off against the Dallas Mavericks in a rematch of last season's Western Conference Finals. The Warriors will try to use their salty veteran lineup to keep the Luka Doncic experience at bay for the game. I have been ice cold this NBA season, but I can feel a hot streak coming just as soon as I figure out how to predict one of these games.

Here are some trends for our sicko readers.

The Warriors are 3-2 against the spread in their last five games (4-1 SU), while the Mavericks are 1-4 in their last five games agains the spread (1-4 SU).

Both teams are cashing overs on the point totals. The over in the Mavs games has hit six out of the last eleven games. The Warriors are a smidge better, as the overs have cashed six out of their last ten games.

Rotational Changes for the Warriors

The Warriors are starting to play better basketball after a rocky start to a season in which they are defending their NBA title. They've played better defense since sending James Wiseman to the G-League and limiting Jonathan Kuminga in his sophomore season. Salty veterans like Anthony Lamb and Donte DiVencenzo have helped the Warriors shore up some of the defensive miscues that led to ugly losses early in the season.

As always, the Warriors live and die by the three ball. Golden State ranks third best in shooting percentage from beyond the three point line (38.2%). They are third-best in scoring this year (117.8 ppg), but in the bottom twenty in defensive efficiency. I do expect them to play better defense tonight as they rely on some solid role players for better defensive play.

Look out for the turnovers with Golden State. They average 17.1 turnovers per game, which is 29th in the league.

Mavs Need to Play D

Dallas ranks 11th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Before the skid, the Mavs ranked first in defensive efficiency, but have been susceptible to teams that can shoot the three. The Mavs wants to limit the amount of threes teams take and guard the rim. That will be hard against the Warriors, who have no issue attempting to outshoot a team and can finish at the rim at any point in time.

The Mavericks rank 1st in 3-Point Rate (44.7%), but last in Rim Rate (26.4%). If they can't get the threes to fall, they'll have trouble getting to the rim and scoring. If they fall too far behind the Warriors, it could be an early night for Dallas.

Prediction

Golden State is quickly improving with thier new rotation. They are playing better defense and scoring at a high rate. They are one of the most active teams in the NBA, always cutting on offense to wear a defense out until they can find an open three or an easy cut to the rim. Expect the Mavs' defensive woes to continue. As Dallas falls behind, they'll turn to Luka to clean things up.

That strategy won't work against a team like the Warriors.