Nate’s NFL Prime Time Teaser – Sunday, Dec. 3
NATE’S NFL PRIME TIME TEASER – SUNDAY, DEC. 3 – Betting on the NFL is hard and sometimes you’re down bad after the early/late afternoon slate. Luckily, we’re here to help you get that money back (or lose more) with my prime time teaser. You’ll have action on both of the evening games for Sunday and Monday and a chance to right the ship after a wayward weekend of football gambling.
What is a teaser?
Quickly, a review of what a teaser bet actually is. It functions like a parlay, in that multiple legs need to hit in order to cash the ticket. Typically, bettors stick to 2-team teasers, like the one we’re doing today. The unique thing about them is that you can add or subtract six points from the spread for each bet (this will become clear later). In exchange for being generous with the points, you won’t get big parlay payouts but you will get -120 odds at most places for a 2-teamer.
A longer more thorough definition can be found here.
So-called Wong teasers are often favorites of sharper bettors. Because around 15% of NFL games are decided by three points, and another 8% are decided by seven points, the general strategy is to try and tease through those key numbers. In real terms, you’re looking for teams that are -7.5 or -8.5 to tease down to -1.5 or -2.5. It works for underdogs of +1.5 and +2.5, as well.
If you listened to the show yesterday, before a bunch of line movement, I recommended a teaser that aligned pretty closely with the Wong teaser strategy.
Now the lines have moved, but we’re already here so we may as well work with what we have.
Sunday Night Football: Chiefs (-5.5) at Packers
I think a lot of people are beginning to think that the Packers are becoming a legitimately decent team. This phenomenon has driven both myself and fellow writers (looking at you, Toby) nearly to the edge of insanity.
As a general rule, I try not to overreact to last week’s games, but that doesn’t seem to be the case for everyone. Unusually, the Chiefs aren’t getting a ton of love from bettors as this line has dropped from -7 to -5.5.
Yes, Jordan Love has looked reborn in the last month or so.
But this is still the reigning Super Bowl champion Chiefs. Are they as good as last year’s version? No. But they’re still better than Green Bay, no matter how much the Pack have improved.
The problem with the Chiefs this season is that they’ve come out rolling in the first half before slamming on the brakes after halftime. They’ve allowed teams to come back on them all season with play calling that is probably a little too conservative.
The Packers have been the opposite. They’ve not been very good this season out of the gate, but they tend to get rolling in the second half when Jordan Love is a little more comfortable.
The reason I don’t love laying 5.5 with KC is that this feels like some sort of backdoor nonsense if Love and Co. get rolling late in a comeback attempt.
I’ll feel a lot better taking six points and getting the Chiefs +0.5
SNF Teaser Leg: Chiefs +0.5
Monday Night Football: Bengals at Jaguars (-10)
Things went from stressful to despairing for the Bengals after Joe Burrow’s season-ending injury. At this point, it’s basically a lost season for them as they look towards next season while muddling through with Jake Browning at quarterback for the time being. I know, I know, they are still in the playoff picture. But how realistic is it for them to make a real run.
For the home team, Jacksonville has looked good this season and T-Law seems to be turning the corner on some early season struggles.
Cincy’s major weakness this season has been against the run. Without Etienne at full strength, the Jags will likely have a hard time exploiting that vulnerability. They haven’t really been awesome running the ball up the middle while at full strength, so I’m not optimistic now that injuries are setting in.
Trevor Lawrence has had the honor of being a big favorite very often in his career. He’s 1-5 ATS when he’s laying four or more points to his opponents. Those aren’t good numbers.
However, this is the probably the best team Lawrence has had around him and I think he can do enough to get a win even if Cincy is feeling frisky.
Let’s be safe though and use those six points.