Nate Perry's Love Letter to the Creighton Bluejays
NATE PERRY'S LOVE LETTER TO THE CREIGHTON BLUEJAYS - Welcome to my love letter to the Creighton Bluejays. Since January, I’ve been the proud owner of a futures ticket on the ‘Jays to win it all at 50/1.
There were times that this bet felt foolish, reckless even. But now it feels awesome. We are two wins away from a 50/1 winner!
When: Sunday, March 26, 2023 at 2:20 EST
Where: KFC Yum! Center, Louisville, KY
Public Bets: Creighton, 55%
Public Money: Creighton, 88%
Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of March 26th, 2023
Creighton vs. San Diego State In-Season Trends
San Diego State has been impressive in the tournament, controlling the tempo against everyone they’ve played. Brian Dutcher has been explicit about this point. He believes that if he can force a team to play a half-court game against his squad, he can win with his dominant defense.
My issue is that Charleston, Furman, and Alabama have all been up-tempo teams who try to get points early or in transition. The Aztecs were able to neutralize those teams by slowing the tempo down and forcing them to grind in half court sets that weren’t necessarily their bread-and-butter.
Things will be tougher for his squad against Creighton. The Bluejays excel in running half-court sets and should be more comfortable against this type of defense considering they play a similar style that seeks to pressure the perimeter and wall off shots at the rim.
The reason that Creighton is a six-seed and the reason I was able to snare a 50/1 ticket in January is because they didn’t have Ryan Kalkbrenner for a long stretch in which they were simply a mediocre Big East team. Things have changed since he’s returned and they are back to being elite.
Ultimately, I think that Creighton should be comfortable in a slower paced grind-it-out game than any of San Diego State’s previous opponents. Creighton is also more balanced and has more paths to creating offense than SDSU.
My pick is for Creighton to keep taking care of business here in a gritty game.
San Diego State’s offense will stall at some point, and they can’t win on defense alone. Kudos to the Aztecs for being the first Mountain West school to reach the Elite Eight, but their run ends here against a team that plays in a similar, but better style.
Ryan Nembhard, Trey Alexander, and Ryan Kalkbrenner present way too many problems for the Aztecs to solve on short rest. The ‘Jays are advancing to the Final Four to continue their improbable run in a year where nothing makes sense and everything is absolutely wide open.