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Monday Night Football: Saints at Buccaneers

The Odds



















The Picks


Saints +3


Buccaneers -3


Under 41 points

Kickoff: Monday, December 5th at 8:15 PM EST

Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL


Public Bets: Bucs, 59%

Public Money: Saints, 76%

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of 12/5

The Word

The Pete Rose Church of the Prophets, Degenerates, and Sickos is here to steer you clear of any wayward Monday Night Football wagers. We have the sharpest action in the nation with our esteemed panel of analysts annihilating the spread.

The New Orleans Saints travel to Raymond James Stadium to play their hated foe, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. As the Falcons continue to falter and the Panthers doing what they do best (lose), the Bucs are once again in a position to lock up the NFC South. All they need to do is win a few more divisional matchups and they'll be hosting a playoff game against a Wild Card team with a better record. What a world.

Here are some trends for tonight:

  • The Saints are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games.
  • The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 Saints games.
  • The Saints are 7-2 straight up and against the Bucs in their last 9 matchups.
  • The Bucs are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games.
  • The UNDER is 7-0 in thew last 7 Bucs games against NFC opponents.

Nate's Best Play

NOLA Nightmare in Tampa Bay

Neither of these teams are very good right now.

Touchdown Tommy is doing his best to will his team into the playoffs. Don’t doubt this man’s commitment, as he’s already sacrificed his family to achieve these goals.

Even still, it’s not enough. The strong defense from earlier in the season is showing cracks, and the Bucs still can’t get the run game going.

I don’t love betting on the Saints, but they have a solid defense and Andy Dalton is competent enough to keep this team in some games.

I don’t see how either team can get much separation from the other in what should be an ugly defensive battle.

I’ll take the dog in that situation.

Nate’s Pick

Saints +3

John's Best Play

Oh Brady, Oh Humanity!

It’s like the Old Man and the Sea. Weather battered and beaten up this season, the senior citizen quarterback goes out to sea again in one last effort to defy time. Reminiscent of Captain Ahab with one peg leg and a band of castoffs, drunks, has-beens, misfits and never weres —Brady is in search of that great white whale called a division crown.

He needs a win. Bad. Smashing iPads on the sidelines has not proved to be the antidote to losing football games. The Bucs are 5-6 and at times look pathetic.

Standing in his way on MNF is a rebuilding Saints team whose red-headed quarterback, Andy Dalton, never made it big with the Bungles and now plays mop-up placeholder until New Orleans drafts a future.

Bruce Arians knew this day would come. That’s why he got out.

Yesterday, at the postgame press conference, after getting drubbed in Philadelphia, Titans head coach Mike Vrable said his club was at a crossroads. Prophetic words indeed.

The same can be said of this game for Tampa Bay. A loss at home to a division bottom feeder may end the Bucs hopes of a late resurgence.

I’m going with the Ahab bunch to beat the sea one last time tonight on national television.

John's Pick

Ahab -3

Jack's Best Play

Follow the Trends

I'm a trends man. While I take into account advanced analytics, injuries, traditional stats, and the weather, I like to rely on the trends for many of my picks. They can sometimes catch you in a confirmation bias, but they often work out. (Except for the Vrable underdog trend yesterday. Yikes.)

This game is begging you to take the under. Neither the Saints not the Bucs play very fast. The Bucs rushing defense is one of the best in the league and the passing defense should have little problem with Andy Dalton. Without Jameis Winston, the Saints have been forced to rely on the Dennis Allen defense to stay in games. Andy Dalton should struggle tonight, as he is want to do in primetime.

Dennis Allen's defense confused Tomy Brady in Week 2 and I don't expect much deviation from that in their second matchup in Tampa.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 Saints games. The Bucs are 7-0 in hitting the UNDER in their last 7 games against NFC opponents. The game should be ugly and, barring a ton of turnovers, the UNDER should hit. Neither team can cover a spread to save their life. Take the UNDER and be glad you did.

Jack's Pick

Under 41 Points

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  • John Fredericks, Publisher

    John Fredericks, the Godzilla of Truth, has spent more than 40 years in the media, previously working as a journalist, newspaper editor, and television host. Fredericks is an avid sports fan, journalist, and handicapper. He brings his unique voice and style, crafted by years of political commentary broadcast on the airwaves, to the world of sports. He cut his teeth on the radio announcing high school football, basketball and baseball games. His weekly column, You Can't Buy Culture, follows ebbs and flows of a diehard fan at the whims of his favorite teams.

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  • Jack Fredericks, Editor

    Jack Fredericks is the editor of Godzilla Wins. He has a M.A. Literature and the Environment and a M.A. in Teaching. He covers the NFL, college football, and the NBA. He combines his unique perspective with advanced metrics to provide robust analysis for your enjoyment. Twitter: @JohnMattFred

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  • Nate Perry, Senior Analyst #NoPickNate

    Nate Perry is a career college educator and literary writer who tends bar to get the inside scoop on sports. He makes his living in hardscrabble downtown Reno, Nevada. A sports handicapper by trade, Nate is legendary at the sportsbook in Reno. If you can gamble on it, chances are Nate has tried his hand at it. He's a former fiction writer who has turned to writing about sports in a desperate bid to get published, much to the chagrin of nearly everyone around him. He is featured here with his extremely large dog, Boatswain.

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