Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Lakers Expert Pick – March 10, 2024

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES VS. LOS ANGELES LAKERS EXPERT PICK – MARCH 10, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games from tonight’s slate features the Minnesota Timberwolves (44-20 SU, 31-32-1 ATS) taking on the Los Angeles Lakers (36-30 SU, 30-36 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Sunday, March 10, 2024

Time: 9:30 PM ET

Where: Crypto.com Arena

Location: Los Angeles, CA

TV: Bally Sports

 

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Lakers Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Minnesota Timberwolves (44-20 SU, 31-32-1 ATS)	+3.5	+1.5	O221.5	-105
Los Angeles Lakers (36-30 SU, 30-36 ATS)	U223	-1.5	U221.5	-115

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Lakers — Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Timberwolves Remain A Top Team Out West Without Karl Anthony-Towns In The Lineup?

 Minnesota Timberwolves Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 113.2 PPG – 19^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 115.3 points per 100 possessions – 18^TH
• Scoring Defense: 106.6 PPG – 1^ST                   
• Defensive Efficiency: 108.6 points per 100 possessions – 1^ST

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been hovering at or  near the top of the Western Conference all season. They are currently tied with the Denver Nuggets for the second-best record, and they trail the Oklahoma City Thunder by just a half-game for the top spot.

The Timberwolves have posted six wins in their last 10 outings, but their recent two-game winning streak was snapped with a 113-104 loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Friday night. Naz Reid came off the bench and led the team in scoring with a 34-point outburst on 10-for-18 shooting and a 7-for-11 effort from beyond the arc. He collected five rebounds as well.

Anthony Edwards added 19 points but shot just 7-for-27 from the floor while missing all seven of his attempts from 3-point range. Jaden McDaniels contributed 13 points, five rebounds and two assists.

In their second game without Karl Anthony-Towns – who will miss significant time with a knee injury – Minnesota’s offense struggled mightily, shooting just 41.5 percent from the field and a woeful 26.7 percent from long range.

 “I don’t know if it was legs on a back-to-back, but they had some good looks,” Micah Nori said after the game. “Obviously without (Towns), who shoots 40 percent (42.3 percent from distance) and takes a good number of them, we’ve got to find guys who are going to knock it down. You just have to keep shooting it.”

This matchup against the Lakers will be Minnesota’s third stop of a six-game road trip. It will be interesting to see if the team can sustain its level of play with its second-leading scorer out of the rotation.

Can The Lakers Knock Off Another Top Team?

 Los Angeles Lakers Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 117.2 PPG – 10^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 115.4 points per 100 possessions – 17^TH        
• Scoring Defense: 117.7 PPG – 21^ST
• Defensive Efficiency: 115.9 points per 100 possessions – 17^TH

The Los Angeles Lakers find themselves in the ninth spot out west and they trail have a slim one-game lead over the Golden State Warriors. Like their opponent, the Lakers have also produced six wins across their last 10 decisions.

This includes a 123-122 win against the Milwaukee Bucks on Friday night. Without James in the starting lineup (ankle), Los Angeles needed someone to step up to shoulder some of the scoring load. D’Angelo Russell answered the call, scoring a team-high 44 points along with nine assists and six rebounds.

He shot an efficient 68 percent from the field (17-for-25) and knocked down nine of his 12 attempts from beyond the arc.

“Public humiliation has done nothing but mold me into the killer that you all see today,” Russell said, via CBS Sports. “I never lack confidence. I never fear confrontation. I want all the smoke. I just feel confident in what I bring to the basketball game, so whatever room I walk in, I’m confident.”

Back in late January, the Lakers were reportedly exploring trade scenarios for Russell. But thanks to a 22.8 pointer-per-game average since then, he has proven to be a valuable piece of the puzzle as the team prepares for a playoff push down the stretch.

Now that we have set the table for this Western Conference showdown, let’s look at the betting trends for both sides.

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The Spread

The Lakers opened as a 3.5-point favorite (per OddShark.com). But according to DraftKings, the line has dipped to 1.5 points for the home team. Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

• The Timberwolves are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
• Minnesota is 7-3 ATS in its last five matchups against the Lakers.
• The Timberwolves are 5-1 ATS in their last six road contests.
• In its last five games against Western Conference opponents, Minnesota is 0-5 against the spread.
• The Lakers are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine outings.
• Los Angeles is 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against Western Conference teams.
• In their last 10 outings against Northwest Division opponents, the Lakers are 7-3 against the spread.

I like Minnesota here for two reasons. First, they are 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 matchups between these teams. Second, the Timberwolves have covered the spread seven times in the last 11 instances in which they were an underdog by at least 1.5 points. With that in mind, I am picking the road team to cover here.

Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves (+1.5)

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Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 223 points. At the time of this writing, the line has dipped to 221.5 points (per Pre-Game.com). Here is why going with the “under” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone UNDER five times in the Timberwolves’ last six road games against Los Angeles.
• The UNDER total is 8-2 in the Lakers’ last 10 games against Minnesota.
• In the Bucks’ last 10 games against Western Conference teams, the total has gone UNDER eight times.

Prediction: UNDER 221.5 points

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Player Prop Bet

On the heels of his 44-point explosion against the Bucks, the key player to watch in this matchup is D’Angelo Russell. He currently has -110 odds of scoring more than 17.5 points and -120 odds of finishing with less than 17.5 points.

Let us look closer to see how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• In 14 career games against Minnesota, he is averaging 17.8 points per game.
• On the season, Russell is averaging 18.1 points per outing across 60 appearances.
• In 31 home contests, he is averaging 19.2 PPG.
• Russell has played against Western Conference teams 40 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 18.2 points per outing.
• In 14 matchups against Northwest Division opponents, Russell is averaging 17.9 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Russell has averaged 20.8 points per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup seven times during that stretch.

Based on the above trends, I expect Russell to exceed the points threshold in this matchup.

Prediction: D’Angelo Russell OVER 17.5 points

James Tillman’s Timberwolves vs. Lakers Picks

Spread: Timberwolves (+1.5) Over/Under: UNDER 221.5 points Player Prop Bet: D’Angelo Russell OVER 17.5 points