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Minnesota Lynx vs. Connecticut Sun Expert Pick – July 30, 2023

Minnesota Lynx vs. Connecticut Sun Expert Pick – July 30, 2023

MINNESOTA LYNX VS. CONNECTICUT SUN EXPERT PICK – JULY 30, 2023 – Greetings basketball fans. Welcome back to our weekend coverage of the WNBA here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on the slate features the Minnesota Lynx (12-13) taking on the Connecticut Sun (18-6). 

Both teams come into this game riding winning streaks. With that in mind, which team will continue its winning ways in this matinee? Here is a look at which team had the edge and why.

Tipoff

When: Sunday, July 30, 2023 at 1:00 PM ET

Where: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT

TV: CBS Sports Network and NBCS-BOS

Click here for more WNBA coverage. DraftKings

Minnesota Lynx vs Connecticut Sun – Season Trends

Although Minnesota currently sits one game below the .500 mark, they have been playing some good basketball lately. They have posted wins in three of their last four games, and their only “L” during that stretch was against the defending champion Las Vegas Aces.

In their last two outings, the Lynx were victorious over the Washington Mystics (97-92) and they defeated the New York Liberty by an 88-83 margin on Friday. 

Lynx Have Issues at Both Ends of The Floor

Out of a 12-team league, Minnesota is ranked eighth in both scoring (80.2 PPG) and efficiency. What is even more problematic is that the Lynx are shooting 42.2 percent from the field, and 31.4 percent from beyond the arc. Both percentages are the second-worst conversion rates in the association.

And the story does not get any better on the defensive end of the floor, either, as Minnesota is ranked 10th in scoring defense (85.4 PPG) and it has the second-worst defensive rating in the league, allowing 107.6 points per 100 possessions. 

The Connecticut Sun Do a Bit of Everything Well

Like the Lynx, the Sun have won three of their past four games as well. And they come into this matchup riding the wave of a three-game winning streak, having beaten the Atlanta Dream twice and an 88-83 win over the Dallas Wings on Tuesday. 

From an offensive standpoint, Connecticut is decent. This team has the fifth-best scoring (84.0 PPG) and the fourth-best efficiency rating. But if defense is your preferred soupe du jour, then you will appreciate what Connecticut brings to the table. They have the top-scoring defense in the league (78.6 PPG) and the second-best defensive rating (99.2 points per 100 possessions).

Connecticut is also tied with Las Vegas in opponent shooting percentage (42.2) and they are limiting opponents to just 31.2 percent from 3-point range. Simply put, this team is a matchup nightmare at both ends of the court.

The Picks

The Spread

The Connecticut Sun are 11.5-point favorites in this matchup. While the double-digit spread can be a double-edged sword, here is why I am going with the home team to win and cover.

  • Minnesota is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games against teams with a winning record. Connecticut is 18-6.
  • The Lynx are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall and 1-4 ATS in their last five Sunday games. 
  • Connecticut is 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games played on a Sunday and 6-1 ATS in their last seven outings overall. 
  • The Sun are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
  • Connecticut is 36-17-2 ATS in its last 55 games against western conference teams. 

Prediction: Connecticut Sun (-11.5)

Over/Under

  • The projected over/under for this contest is 160 points.  Here is a look at why going with the OVER is the smart move. 
  • Connecticut and Minnesota have played five times over the last two teams with an O/U total ranging from 158.5 to 164.5. The total went OVER in four of those five games. 
  • The OVER is 6-1 for Minnesota in its last seven games following an SU win and 5-1 in the last six games following an SU win. 
  • In Minnesota’s last six games against teams with a winning record, the OVER total prevailed five times. 
  • The OVER total cashed in nine times in Minnesota’s last 12 games. 
  • The OVER holds a 5-1 mark in the last six games between these two ball clubs. 
  • The Sun’s games have an average point total of 162.6 points, while Minnesota’s average point total is 165.6. 

Prediction: OVER 160 points

Player Prop Bet

My key player to watch from this contest is Connecticut Sun forward DeWanna Bonner. She currently has -115 odds to score more than 18.5 and -115 odds of scoring less than 18.5.

While Bonner’s scoring average of 15.2 points per game is lower than her projected points total for this contest, she has put up 19 or more points in six of her last nine outings. And given the fact that Minnesota is one of the worst defensive teams in the league, I expect Bonner to have a solid outing. 

Prediction: DeWanna Bonner OVER 18.5 points

 

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