Minnesota Lynx vs. Connecticut Sun Expert Pick – September 17, 2023

MINNESOTA LYNX VS. CONNECTICUT SUN EXPERT PICK – SEPTEMBER 17, 2023 – Greetings basketball fans. Welcome back to our weekend coverage of the WNBA playoffs here at Godzilla Wins. We have two games on Sunday’s slate.

The first game features the No. 6 Minnesota Lynx (0-1) taking on the No. 3 Connecticut Sun (1-0). Will the Lynx bounce back from an abysmal showing in the opener to extend the series? Can the Sun produce another solid effort that would enable the team to punch its ticket to the next round?

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 1:00 PM ET

Where: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT

TV: ESPN

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

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Minnesota Lynx vs. Connecticut Sun – Series Recap And Betting Trends

Minnesota Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2 And Extend The Series

The were multiple things that went wrong for Minnesota in the series opener. For starters, the team shot just 35 percent from the field. The Lynx converted just five of their 25 attempts from beyond that arc. That is a 20 percent conversion rate. That will not get the job done against one of the better defensive teams in the association.

Minnesota also committed 19 turnovers and their leading scorer, Napheesa Collier, was limited to 14 points. This is a noticeable drop from her regular season average of 21.5 points per contest. Don’t get me wrong, Minnesota needs an improved effort across the board to take Game 2. However, Collier will need to have a bigger impact in this game to improve the team’s chances of extending the series to a third and final game.

Not Much For The Sun To Change For Game 2

As far as the Sun are concerned, there wasn’t much that they did not do well in Game 1. They shot 47.1 percent from the field. They shot 53.3 percent from the 3-point line. Minnesota recorded 28 assists on 33 made shots. The Lynx enjoyed a 16-3 edge in fast-break points. They turned 19 Minnesota turnovers into 30 points. Giving the opposition extra possessions is usually a recipe for disaster and that certainly was the case in Game 1. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, the Sun will be heading to the next round.

The Picks

The Spread

Connecticut is favored to win this contest by nine points. I am ALL in on this spread and here’s why.

• Minnesota is 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.
• The Lynx are 1-6 ATS in their last seven matchups against Eastern Conference teams.
• Minnesota is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games.
• The Lynx are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 outings against Connecticut.
• Minnesota is 3-6 ATS when it is a 9.5-point underdog or greater.
• The Sun are 4-1 ATS in their last five first-round playoff games.
• Connecticut is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 games they played on a Sunday.
• The Sun are 5-2-1 in their last eight encounters against teams with a losing record.
• Connecticut is 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games.

Prediction: Connecticut Sun (-9)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this contest is 158.5. Although the teams combined for just 150 points in Game 1, here are a few trends that suggest why going with the OVER is the smart play.

• The OVER total has prevailed in three of the last five matchups between these two teams.
• The OVER is 4-1 for Minnesota in its last five Sunday games.
• The OVER total has prevailed five times in Minnesota’s last seven games they played on three days of rest.
• In Minnesota’s last 10 games, the OVER total hit seven times.
• The OVER is 5-2 for Connecticut in its last seven games against Western Conference teams.
• The OVER is 5-2 for the Sun in their last seven games against teams with a losing record.
• In Connecticut’s last 18 home games, the OVER boasts a 13-5 record.

Prediction: OVER 158.5 points

Player Prop Bet

My key player to watch in this contest is Connecticut Sun forward Alyssa Thomas. She currently has -120 odds of scoring more than 15.5 points and -110 odds of scoring less than 15.5 points.

Thomas averaged 15.5 points during the season. Not only that, but she finished Game 1 with an impressive stat line that included 15 points, 10 boards, and five steals. These are encouraging signs if you are considering going with over.

It is also worth mentioning that Thomas has scored 15 or more points seven times across her last 10 outings. Based on these trends, I am going with the over for Thomas.

Prediction: Alyssa Thomas OVER 15.5 points