Milwaukee Bucks vs. Golden State Warriors Expert Pick – March 6, 2024

MILWAUKEE BUCKS VS. GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS EXPERT PICK – MARCH 6, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games from tonight’s slate features the Milwaukee Bucks (41-21 SU, 27-35 ATS) taking on the Golden State Warriors (32-28 SU, 34-26 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Wednesday, March 6, 2024

Time: 10:00 PM ET

Where: Chase Center

Location: San Francisco, CA

TV: ESPN, NBCS-BA, and BSWI

 

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Golden State Warriors Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Milwaukee Bucks (41-21 SU, 27-35 ATS)	+1.5	+4.5	O226.5	+142
Golden State Warriors (32-28 SU, 34-26 ATS)	U229	-4.5	U226.5	-170

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Golden State Warriors — Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Bucks Push Their Winning Streak To Seven Games?

 Milwaukee Bucks Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 121.4 PPG – 2^ND
• Offensive Efficiency: 119.8 points per 100 possessions – 4^TH
• Scoring Defense: 116.9 PPG – 18^TH                  
• Defensive Efficiency: 115.4 points per 100 possessions – 15^TH

After a shaky start under new coach Doc Rivers, the Bucks have found their groove over the past couple of weeks, producing eight wins across their last 10 decisions. Not only that, but Milwaukee has the second-best record in the Eastern Conference, albeit by a slim half-game lead ahead of the third-place Cleveland Cavaliers.

Additionally, the Bucks enter this matchup riding a six-game winning streak. This includes a 113-106 victory over the Los Angeles Clippers on Monday night. With Giannis Antetokounmpo sitting this one out, Damian Lillard carried the scoring load. He finished with 41 points on 12-for-22 shooting to go along with four rebounds and four assists.

Bobby Portis finished with 28 points and 16 rebounds off the bench. Patrick Beverley contributed 12 points, nine rebounds, and four steals in 34 minutes of action.

Milwaukee trailed 35-25 after the open quarter, and they trailed by 13 points with a minute left in the third quarter. But thanks to a 40-25 run in the final frame, the Bucks managed to come out on top despite the absences of Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton – who has now missed 11 straight games with an ankle injury.

“Nobody talked about who wasn’t playing before the game,” Lillard said, via ESPN. “It was literally like we were in the locker room; Doc didn’t come in there and say, ‘All right, Giannis is out. Khris is out.’ It was like, we went in there, we talked about the scouting report and what we needed to do to win the game, and that was it. I think that just shows what’s expected, the standard that we’re starting to have, and who we’re becoming as a team.”

The Bucks limited the Clippers to 44 percent shooting from the field. This was also just the second time Milwaukee surrendered more than 100 points during their current winning streak.

Can The Warriors Slow Down The Bucks?

 Golden State Warriors Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 118.6 PPG – 7^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 117.7 points per 100 possessions – 12^TH        
• Scoring Defense: 117.2 PPG – 19^TH
• Defensive Efficiency: 116.3 points per 100 possessions – 18^TH

Like the Bucks, the Warriors are playing some good basketball as well. Although they currently occupy the No. 10 spot in the conference playoff race, they have posted seven wins in their last 10 contests.

Unfortunately, their recent three-game winning streak was snapped with a 140-88 beatdown at the hands of the Boston Celtics on Sunday. Lester Quinones led the team in scoring with 17 points off the bench.

Moses Moody added 11 points and four rebounds. Meanwhile, the Splash Brothers – Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson — combined for just 10 points, with the former going 2-for-13 from the field and 0-for-9 from beyond the arc.

“The way that they’ve been playing, they seem very sure of themselves in their identity and who they are,” Curry said after the game. “Give them credit. They came out and whooped us tonight from the jump, and it was one of those perfect storms of a rough (day) on our end and them taking it to us.”

With 11 wins in their last 14 contests, the Warriors look to bounce back against a Bucks squad that has found its footing at both ends of the floor.

Now that we have set the table for this matchup, let’s look at the betting trends for both sides.

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The Spread

The Warriors opened as a consensus 1.5-point favorite. That line has moved to 4.5 points for the home team (per OddShark.com). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

• The Bucks have successfully covered the spread in their last six outings.
• Milwaukee is 3-6 ATS in its last nine matchups against the Warriors.
• In their last five road games against the Warriors, the Bucks are 1-4 against the spread.
• The Warriors are an impressive 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games.
• Golden State is 6-3 ATS in its last nine matchups against Central Division opponents.

Despite the Warriors’ recent hot streak, the Bucks have proven they can win games with key players missing from the lineup. With that in mind, I am picking the road team to cover the spread here.

Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks (+4.5)

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Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 229 points. At the time of this writing, the line has dipped to 226.5 points (per Pre-Game.com). Here is why going with the “under” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone UNDER in each of the Bucks’ last six games.
• The UNDER total is 10-1 in Milwaukee’s last 11 road contests.
• In the Bucks’ last 10 games against Western Conference teams, the total has gone UNDER eight times.
• The UNDER total has prevailed in each of the Warriors’ last seven contests.
• The total has gone UNDER five times in Golden State’s last seven matchups against the Bucks.
• In Golden State’s last eight games, the UNDER total is a perfect 8-0.

Prediction: UNDER 226.5 points

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Player Prop Bets

Fresh off his 41-point outburst against the Clippers, the key players to watch in this matchup is Damian Lillard. He currently has -110 odds of scoring more than 25.5 points and -120 odds of finishing with less than 25.5 points.

Let’s take a look and see how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• On the season, Lillard is averaging 24.5 points per outing.
• In 27 road contests, he is averaging 23.1 PPG.
• Lillard has played against Western Conference teams 17 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 26.5 points per outing.
• In three matchups against Pacific Division opponents, Lillard is averaging 32.3 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Lillard has averaged 22.6 points per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup just three times during that stretch.

I am relying on the fact that Antetokounmpo will sit out this contest, as he is nursing an Achilles injury. If that proves to be the case, I expect Lillard to exceed the points threshold in this matchup.

Prediction: Damian Lillard OVER 25.5 points

James Tillman’s Bucks vs. Warriors Picks

Spread: Bucks (+4.5) Over/Under: UNDER 226.5 points Player Prop Bet #1: Damian Lillard OVER 25.5 points