Mexico Open at Vidanta PGA Picks
MEXICO OPEN AT VIDANTA PGA PICKS – At Clubhouse Picks, we do not take weeks off. Not even when 48 of the top-50 in the world are taking a week to recover.
Be sure to check out my course preview for some more in-depth thoughts on the field and venue.
If you don’t want to do that, the quick version is that aside from the best player on the planet, Jon Rahm, this field is pretty weak. If you want to know about the course, it’s a bomber’s paradise.
Let’s go ahead and get to the picks.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings, 4/26
THE DRIVER – Rahmbo, Tony Finau, Wyndham Clark(!)
These are guys we’re looking at if you only like betting studs at the top of the leaderboard. We usually take a look at the top three or four guys on the odds board and choose the one we like the most.
Wyndham Clark (+1800)
Everyone is talking about the two big guys, so let’s spend some time on Clubhouse Picks hero, Wyndham Clark. For years, he’s been a sort of bomber/putter archetype. He’s always been long and wielded a ferocious flatstick. The other parts of his game, particularly his irons, held him back from getting his first win on Tour.
Those issues seem to be in the rearview now as he’s consistently striking his irons well this season. This is a course that would’ve set up well for him before he found an approach game. Armed with a more complete arsenal, he’s worth a hard look as the third betting choice in this hilariously weak field.
THE IRONS (Woodland, Aaron Rai, S.H. Kim)
These are solid, reliable guys in the mid-range tier (think 30/1-80/1ish). They are reliable and you can count on a handful of guys in that range to be sniffing around in contention. These are who we have our eyes on this week. Some of them we didn’t mention, but should have on the show. Here’s who we like.
Gary Woodland (+2500)
He’s been trendy this week and a lot of people are liking him this week. It probably speaks more to the quality of the field than it does his results. He did pop up for a top-15 in The Masters, so maybe the game is rounding into form despite not having very many good finishes this season.
He’s a classic bomber who should enjoy this course. Add to it his solid approach numbers this season and it’s easy to see why he’s a sneaky sexy pick.
There isn’t much rough to speak of and the greens will probably roll a little bit slower. His short game is atrocious, but this course might not punish him for his sins around and on the green.
THE WEDGE (S.H. Kim, Akshay Bhatia)
This is a guy that we are always finding a reason to bet on, but they never win. These guys likely won’t either, but here’s to hoping.
Akshay Bhatia (+10000)
Jack and I are in the prototype phases of developing our SG: Resort Course model. While that’s being tested, we’ll stick to the other data that points to this man being a killer once a tournament is being contested outside of the continental US.
He’s only 21, but in his young career almost all of his best results as a pro have come in the Bahamas or Puerto Rico (read: resort courses). Vallarta Vidanta is certainly in the same mold as those others, so this is a logical player to land on.
He finished second at the Puerto Rico open to secure his playing privileges for the season, and he can build on it with a surprise win here.
He’s long off the tee and a great long iron player. Those are basically the two most important stats for this long, wide-open track. May as well take a flier on a young up-and-comer.
THE PUTTER (Will Gordon to lead after first round, Nicolai Hojgaard)
These are guys who we bet on and then instantly regretted.
Nicolai Hojgaard (+3000)
This is mostly an objection to the price (which feels low) and that I’ve seen him pop up for 90% of the golf betting community this week and in nearly every betting preview on the web.
Does he fit the mold for someone who should have success here? Absolutely.
Is all of golf Twitter going to bankrupt the sportsbooks this weekend when everyone on the planet cashes this ticket? I don’t know.
Here’s what I do know. He was runner-up in a strong effort at Corales which is probably the most comparable course to this week’s venue. He’s extremely long off the tee and he’s a great long iron player. The weakness is the short game, but that’s not a stat I’m paying a ton of attention to here.
In his limited starts on Tour this season, he’s been remarkably solid. The win is going to come for him soon, I just don’t know if it will be the week when literally everyone who bets golf is on him.
HYBRID (David Lipsky, Martin Trainer)
These are our wild card guys who could pop up and make us rich. They could also be out of the tournament by noon on Thursday. We’re just throwing darts here and hoping for something good at long odds.
Martin Trainer (+18000)
If you want a longshot, why don’t we just talk about the longest shot on either of our betting cards this week.
He doesn’t have a ton of starts this season, but he popped up for a top-25 at Corales and he played decently at the Zurich Classic last week.
He won in Puerto Rico four years ago at a resort course and he’s got a solid result at one this season. These seem to be the places most suited for his game, as he’s scary long off the tee and a solid putter.
The approach and driving accuracy numbers are horrendous, but they don’t hurt as much at a wide-open track like Vidanta. Keep in mind, Jon Rahm was 40th in SG: App when he won last year. You don’t have to be a stud iron player to win here. Just rip it off the tee and make some putts.
Do it for us one time, Martin.