Marquette vs. N.C. State Expert Pick – March 29, 2024

MARQUETTE VS. N.C. STATE EXPERT PICK – Marquette is flying under the radar as a #2 seed, while NC State is reimagining the role of the tournament’s Cinderella. Sure, we are used to seeing the likes of a George Mason, Florida Gulf Coast or VCU donning the glass slipper. Read Marquette vs. N.C. State Expert Pick below.

But please remember that NC State is the OG (Original Gangsters for everyone born after 1977) of Cinderellas after their improbable championship run in 1983. The Wolfpack have won seven in a row after sweeping the ACC Tournament and defeating Oakland and Texas Tech to earn a spot in the Sweet Sixteen. 

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The Golden Eagles survived against Colorado, defeating them 81-77 in their last game. They have won five of their last six games including the first-round defeat of Western Kentucky. Marquette is one of the most balanced teams in the tournament and with the spread at -7 they are a heavy favorite to move on.

The Odds 

Matchup	Open	Spread	Points	Moneyline
NC State (24-14 SU, 18-19-1 ATS)	O150.5	+7.0	O151.5	+235
Marquette (27-9 SU,21-14-1 ATS)	-11.5	-7.0	U151.5	-290

Tipoff 

When: Friday, March 29 at 7:09 p.m. EST 

Where: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX

TV: CBS

Public Bets: Unavailable 

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of March 28th, 2024

NC State vs Marquette In-Season Trends

NC State has won seven straight games but most impressively they have won first straight against the spread. The Wolfpack beat Louisville, Syracuse, Duke, Virginia, and North Carolina to make the tournament. They are the most experienced team in the field based on minutes played together. We can cite all the KenPom and other aggregators all we want, but the fact is this team has “clicked” at the right time and are confident.

Marquette is ranked 13th nationally according to KenPom. They shoot nearly 50% from the field and have one of the best backcourts in the nation. They have faced a slew of NCAA Tournament qualifiers in the regular season having the 8th toughest schedule nationally.

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The Difference-Makers

NC State is led by senior guard DJ Horne who averages 16.9 points per game. The key to this game may be how the large DJ Burns, 6’9” and 275lbs, can guard Oso Ighodaro and Ben Gold who are both taller. The Wolfpack have two other guards, Jayden Taylor (11.9 PPG, 3.8 RPG) and senior Casey Morsell (11.5 PPG) that protect the ball and control the tempo.

Marquette is led by one of the most formidable backcourts in the nation. With Tyler Kolek (15.3 PPG and 7.9 APG) back healthy after missing all of March the sky is truly the limit for this team. Combined with junior guard Kam Jones (17.1 PPG) they are a menace to guard for opposing defenses. You combine that with the contributions from Gold and Ighodaro – and you have a team that can beat you in many ways.

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The Pick 

This just has the feel of a game that should only have Marquette favored by 3-5 points. The Wolfpack, for all their deficiencies in the regular season, do not turn over the ball ranking #10 in KenPom. 

At this point we can throw away the regular season statistics for this team. This is the time in the tournament where the “Feel is Real” and NC State will keep this close and possibly win outright. 

Mitch’s Picks

NC State +7.0    Over   151.5