LSU Tigers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Expert Pick – April 1, 2024

LSU TIGERS VS IOWA HAWKEYES EXPERT PICK – APRIL 1, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome to our NCAA women’s tournament coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on tap from the next round of games features the LSU Tigers taking on the Iowa Hawkeyes.

If this matchup sounds familiar to you, it is because these two teams squared off in last year’s title game. LSU jumped out to a 17-point lead at the break. And while Iowa cut into that lead a few times in the second half, LSU won the game 102-85, capturing the program’s first-ever national title.

Caitlin Clark finished with 30 points and eight assists for the Hawkeyes. However, 19 of her 22 attempts came from 3-point range. On the other side, Jasmine Carson — who averaged 6.6 PPG — came off the bench with 22 points and shot 5-for-6 from beyond the arc. Angel Reese stuffed the stat sheet with 15 points, 10 rebounds, five assists, and three steals.

With both teams returning most of their respective rosters from last year’s clash, it promises to be another memorable game.

So, without further delay, here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Monday, April 1, 2024

Time: 7:00 PM ET

Where: MVP Arena

Location: Albany, NY

TV: ESPN

 

LSU Tigers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Total	Moneyline
LSU Tigers (31-5 SU)	+1.5	+2	O168.5	+110
Iowa Hawkeyes (32-4 SU)	U168.5	-2	U168.5	-130

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

LSU Tigers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes – How We Got Here & Betting Trends

Can The Defending Champs Knock Off Iowa Again?

 LSU Tigers Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 85.9 PPG – 3^RD
• Offensive Efficiency: 110.6 points per 100 possessions – 11^TH
• Scoring Defense: 62.5 PPG – 131^ST                   
• Defensive Efficiency: 80.4 points per 100 possessions – 12^TH

The Tigers defeated Rice (70-60) and Middle Tennessee (83-56) in the tournament’s first two rounds. But their 78-69 victory against the UCLA Bruins had a different feel to it.

The Bruins gave the defending champions all they could handle. The game was knotted at 48 after the first 30 minutes of action and UCLA led 67-64 in the final frame. But LSU concluded matters with a 14-2 run, stamping its ticket to the Elite-8 round. Flau’jae Johnson paced the Tigers’ scoring attack with 24 points and 12 rebounds.

Aneesah Morrow scored 17 points, while Reese finished with 16 points, 11 rebounds, and four steals. It was her 26^th double-double of the season.

Defense has been the calling card for the Tigers in the tournament. They held Rice to 35.4 percent shooting from the field and 29.6 percent from deep. Middle Tennessee shot 33.9 percent from the floor and 25.8 percent from the 3-point line.

Lastly, as great of an opponent as the Bruins were, even they struggled against LSU, shooting 35.7 percent from the floor and a woeful 21.9 percent from distance.

If the Tigers can put together another defensive masterpiece against Iowa, they WILL advance to the Final Four for the second straight year.

Can The Hawkeyes Avenge Last Season’s Title Game Loss?

 Iowa Hawkeyes Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 91.9 PPG – 1^ST
• Offensive Efficiency: 119.1 points per 100 possessions – 1^ST        
• Scoring Defense: 71.1 PPG – 311^TH
• Defensive Efficiency: 92.1 points per 100 possessions – 212^TH

Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes won their first two tournament games by an average of 18 points. They beat Holy Cross 91-65 and defeated West Virginia by a 64-54 margin.

In the Sweet-16 matchup against the Colorado Buffaloes, the Hawkeyes cruised to their second 20-plus point victory in their three tournament contests.

All five of Iowa’s starters scored in double figures, headlined by a 29-point effort from Caitlin Clark. While she converted just three of her 11 attempts from deep, she shot 13-for-22 overall and tallied 15 assists and six rebounds.

Sydney Affolter added 15 points and five rebounds. Gabbie Marshall and Kate Martin scored 14 points apiece while shooting a combined 10-for-19 from the floor and 6-for-9 from beyond the arc.

Thanks to another dominant effort in postseason play, the Hawkeyes get another shot at the team that defeated them in last year’s title game.

“I think everyone’s pretty excited for it,” Iowa coach Lisa Bluder said, via ESPN. “These are two really good basketball teams. Unfortunately, they are meeting this early. Everyone that’s left now is really good. LSU is certainly that. It’s going to be highly emotional and highly competitive.”

Iowa Hawkeyes Are A Formidable Defense Squad As Well

I mentioned earlier how well LSU has played from a defensive standpoint. Ironically, the same can be said about the Hawkeyes as well.

In its first-round matchup against Holy Cross, Iowa held its opponent to 32.4 percent shooting and 20.6 percent from beyond the arc. Despite holding Iowa to its lowest tournament output thus far, West Virginia shot 33.9 percent from the field and 26.5 percent from the 3-point line.

And in the Sweet-16 matchup, it was more of the same, as Colorado shot 37.5 percent from the field while converting only eight of its 29 attempts from beyond the arc (27.6 percent). With that in mind, both LSU and Iowa have held their opponents to under 40 percent shooting from the floor.

LSU’s defense has allowed 61.7 points per contest. Meanwhile, Iowa’s defense is right there, giving up just 62.3 points per outing. From a scoring standpoint, Iowa is averaging 81.3 points per contest in tournament play, while LSU is scoring 77 points per game.

In a matchup between two teams that are eerily similar at both ends of the floor, this has the potential to be one of the best women’s tournament games we have seen this season.

Now that we have set the table for this elite-8 matchup, let’s look at the betting trends for both sides.

The Spread

The Hawkeyes are a two-point favorite in this contest. Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

• The Hawkeyes are 19-15 ATS this season.
• Iowa is 19-15 ATS when installed as at least a two-point favorite.
• The Tigers are 21-12-1 ATS this season.
• LSU is 2-0 ATS when playing as an underdog of two or more points.

Prediction: LSU Tigers (+2)

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Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup is 168.5 points. Here are a few reasons that suggest why going with the “over” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone OVER 23 times in the Hawkeyes’ 34 games this season.
• In the Tigers’ 34 contests this season, the OVER total cashed in 20 times.
• The two teams average a combined 177.8 points per game, which is 9.3 points higher than the projected total.

Prediction: OVER 168.5 points

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Player Prop Bets

The key player to watch for LSU is Angel Reese. She currently has -110 odds of scoring more than 18.5 points and -110 odds of finishing with less than 18.5 points.

Here is a quick glance to see how her numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• During the season, Reese averaged 18.7 points per game across 32 outings.
• During March, she is averaging 17.4 points per contest.
• In the Tigers’ three tournament games, Reese is averaging 15.3 points and 13.7 rebounds per outing on 33.3 percent shooting from the floor.

Prediction: Angel Reese OVER 18.5 points

The key player to watch for the Hawkeyes is Caitlin Clark. She currently has -115 odds of scoring more than 32.5 points and -105 odds of scoring less than 32.5 points.

• During the season, Clark averaged 31.7 points per game across 36 appearances.
• During the month of March, she has averaged 29.9 points per contest.
• In the Hawkeyes three tournament contests, Clark is averaging 29.3 points per game on 46 percent shooting from the floor, and 32.4 percent from beyond the arc.

Prediction: Caitlin Clark OVER 32.5 points

James Tillman’s Tigers vs. Hawkeyes Picks

Spread: LSU Tigers (+2) Over/Under: OVER 168.5 points Player Prop Bet #1: Angel Reese OVER 18.5 points Player Prop Bet #2: Caitlin Clark OVER 32.5 points