Los Angeles Sparks vs. Las Vegas Aces Expert Pick
LOS ANGELES SPARKS VS. LAS VEGAS ACES EXPERT PICK – Happy Saturday basketball fans. Welcome back to our weekend WNBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. Our lone game of the day features the Los Angeles Sparks (12-18) taking on the Las Vegas Aces (28-3).
Although the Aces are head and shoulders above the playing field, this “could” be an interesting matchup with the Sparks as they hold a half-game lead for the final playoff berth. In other words, every game is a must-win for the ball club down the stretch. With that in mind, let us look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.
Tipoff
When: Saturday, August 19, 2023 at 3:00 PM ET
Where: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NV
TV: ESPN2
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The Odds
Matchup |
Open |
Spread |
Total |
Moneyline |
Sparks(12-18, SU) |
+17 |
+16.5 |
o169.5 |
+10000 |
Aces(28-3, SU) |
u169.5 |
-16.5 |
u169.5 |
-20000 |
Los Angeles Sparks vs Las Vegas Aces — Season Trends
Los Angeles Playing with Some Spark as Of Late
Despite their less-than-stellar 12-18 record, this team was a .500 ball club across their first 14 games of the season.
Then, the wheels fell off the wagon as the saying goes as they dropped eight of their next 10 games. Fortunately, the team is trending in the right direction.
They are 5-5 in their last 10 games. This includes an 85-74 victory over the Atlanta Dream back on Aug. 12. The Sparks got solid contributions from multiple players in that contest.
Jordin Canada led the way with 20 points, eight assists, and four steals. Nneka Ogwumike chipped in with 17 points, seven boards, and four assists.
From an offensive standpoint, there is little to be excited about as Los Angeles has the third-worst scoring average (79.1 PPG) and the second-worst offensive rating.
Conversely, this team performs very well at the other end of the floor. Los Angeles is ranked fourth in scoring defense and they have the fifth-best defensive rating (102.4 points per 100 possessions).
It is worth mentioning that in the Aces’ three losses, they were held to under 80 points. Taking that into consideration, the Sparks could make this a competitive game if they can keep the score in the low 80s.
The Aces Are the Odds-On Favorite for a Reason
Las Vegas has won nine of its last 10 games, and they have posted wins in each of the previous four outings. Not only that, but each of these victories was by a double-digit margin.
In their recent outing, the Aces defeated the New York Liberty to the tune of 88-75, snapping New York’s six-game winning streak. Chelsea Gray notched her second career triple-double with 22 points, 11 rebounds, and 11 assists. A’ja Wilson contributed 21 points and eight rebounds. Kelsey Plum scored 18 points to go along with two assists.
Given the fact the Aces have just three losses on their resume, it should come as no surprise that they have the best offense in the association. At the other end of the court, Las Vegas has the best scoring defense (79.5 PPG) and they have the second-best defensive rating (98.2 points per 100 possessions).
The Picks
The Spread
The Aces come into this matchup as a 17-point favorite. Here is why I think they can cover the spread.
- The Aces have won all three meetings this season against the Sparks and two of these victories were by 18 and 19 points, respectively.
- Los Angeles is 3-5-1 ATS in their last nine road games.
- Los Angles is 3-8 ATS in their 11 games against Las Vegas.
- The Sparks are 1-6 ATS in the last seven road games against the Aces.
- The Aces are 7-1 ATS playing on one day of rest.
- Las Vegas is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against Western Conference teams and the team is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games.
Prediction: (Las Vegas Aces -17)
Over/Under
The over/under total for this contest. Here are a few trends that suggest going with the under is the smart play.
The UNDER is 6-2 in Los Angeles’ last eight games overall.
The UNDER has prevailed 11 times (11-3) in the Sparks’ last 14 games.
In the Aces’ last five home games, the UNDER has prevailed four times (4-1).
The UNDER is 5-2 for Las Vegas in its last seven games overall.
Prediction: UNDER 169.5 points
Player Prop Bet
Although there was no PPB info available at the time of this writing, my key player to watch is Las Vegas forward A’ja Wilson.
She is averaging 21.2 points and 9.6 rebounds per contest. Both are career highs. Wilson has scored 21 or more points in four of her last seven outings.
So, if the projected total is 20 or less, go with the over. Otherwise, go with the under.
Prediction: A’Ja Wilson OVER 21 points
James’s Picks |
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