Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Expert Pick – September 29, 2023

LAS VEGAS ACES VS. DALLAS WINGS EXPERT PICK – SEPTEMBER 29, 2023 – Greetings basketball fans. Welcome back to our coverage of the WNBA playoffs.

After our earlier look at the Liberty vs Sun, our other Friday night game features the top-seeded Las Vegas Aces taking on the No. 4 seed Dallas Wings.

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this pivotal Game 3 and why.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Friday, September 29, 2023 at 9:30 PM ET

Where: College Park Center, Arlington, TX

TV: ESPN2

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Click here for more from James Tillman III

Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings – Series Recap And Betting Trends

This 1 vs. 4 matchup has been a bit one-sided. Las Vegas swept the season series against Dallas 4-0 and defeated the Wings 97-83 in the series opener.

Although Dallas did manage to hang tough with the defending champs, they came a bit short. Thanks to another solid game by A’ja Wilson, the Aces now lead this semifinal series 2-0.

Wilson, who finished third in the MVP race, led the Aces with 30 points (on 10-for-18 shooting), 11 rebounds and two blocked shots.

Las Vegas also got solid contributions from a few other players as well. Chelsea Gray tallied 23 points, five boards, and eight assists. Kelsey Plum chipped in with 18 points and three assists.

Despite her team taking a commanding 2-0 lead, Aces coach Becky Hammon offered this postgame analysis.

“I think we do some things really well which pose problems for them, but it’s hard to simulate that kind of emotion that will be coming from a very angry (Wings) locker room,” Las Vegas coach Becky Hammon said, via ESPN. “I don’t want us to be content. We still have a lot more work to do. We have a lot more basketball in front of us. I expect it to be an all-out war in Dallas.”

With their season on the line and the next game in their building, the Wings will make it a competitive affair once again. But it is hard to pick against the Aces not closing out this series in three games.

The Picks

The Spread

The defending champs opened as 6.5-point favorites for Game 3. That line has moved to (-6). Here is why you should go with Las Vegas to win and cover.

• Las Vegas is 6-2 ATS the last eight times they have played on a Friday.
• The Aces are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.
• Las Vegas is also 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a straight-up win.
• The Aces are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 matchups against Western Conference opponents.
• Dallas is 8-16-1 ATS in its last 25 home games against Las Vegas.

Prediction: Las Vegas Aces (-6)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this contest is 174.5 points. The two teams have eclipsed this threshold three times in their last six head-to-head matchups. Let us look at why betting the OVER could be the way to go.

• The two teams have exceeded the projected 175 points total in this contest in each of the last four meetings.
• The OVER is 4-0-1 for Las Vegas in its last five outings against Western Conference teams.
• The last 10 times the Aces have played on a Friday, the OVER total is 7-2-1.
• The OVER is 6-2 for Las Vegas when the team is playing on two days of rest.
• In the Aces’ last 26 road games, the OVER is 19-7.
• The OVER total is a perfect 5-0 the last five times Dallas played on a Friday.
• The last four times the Wings played against teams with a winning record, the OVER total prevailed three times (3-0-1).
• The OVER is 5-1-1 for Dallas in its last seven games against Western Conference opponents.
• The OVER has hit 11 times for the Wings in their last 12 home games.
• In the Wings’ last 26 games, the OVER is 19-6-1.

 Prediction: OVER 174.5 points

Player Prop Bet

I have been riding the A’ja Wilson train for quite some time and I will continue to do so going into Game 3. Wilson was third in the MVP voting in a very close race. Wilson currently has -130 odds of scoring more than 24.5 points and +100 odds of scoring less than 24.5 points.

During the regular season, Wilson posted career highs in points (22.8), rebounds (9.5), blocks (2.2), and shooting percentage (55.7). Through the Aces’ four postseason contests, Wilson has been virtually unstoppable.

The two-time MVP is averaging 29.0 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 3.5 blocks per contest. Now that is the definition of a two-way player. It should also be noted that Wilson is shooting a ridiculous 62.2 percent from the floor.

The Aces are just one win away from earning their second straight trip to the WNBA Finals and I am betting that Wilson’s dominance will be on full display again in Game 3.

Prediction: A’ja Wilson OVER 24.5 points