Kraken vs. Avalanche Game Five Analysis and Prediction

KRAKEN VS. AVALANCHE GAME FIVE ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION – The Kraken found themselves at a crossroads in Game 4 and came up big, winning in overtime to even the series and get back to Denver.

Seattle might be the underdog in this series, but after peppering Colorado with 43 shots in Game 4, it’s clear that the Kraken aren’t in awe of the defending Stanley Cup champions.

However, there are a couple of things from the fourth game that aren’t sustainable. First, Seattle can’t keep converting at such a low percentage if it hopes to win. The Kraken have scored 12 goals in the series and got three in Game 4, which means they were turned away on 40 of their 43 shots. Second, they can’t expect to block as many shots as they did.

The Avalanche only got 22 pucks to Philipp Grubauer, and that’s because Seattle blocked 26 shots. Eventually, Colorado’s going to get a few of those past a Seattle body and to the net, and that didn’t mean good things in the two games in the Evergreen State.

Seven out of 55 shots got by Grubauer in Seattle, including five in a Game 3 defeat.

The good news for Seattle is that Grubauer, who came from Colorado during the expansion year, has looked right at home in his old arena. Grubauer conceded just four goals in two games in Denver, and Seattle will need him to be at his best to keep its hopes of an upset alive.

The bad news for the Kraken is that they’ve got to find a way to win without leading scorer Jared McCann, who’s out after taking an illegal hit from Colorado’s Cale Makar in Game 4.

The Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Seattle Kraken (48-30-8 SU, 51-35 PL)	O5.5	+1.5	O5.5	+155
Colorado Avalanche (53-25-8 SU, 43-43 PL)	-1.5	-1.5	U5.5	-180

Puck Drop

When: Wednesday, April 26th at 9:30 pm EST

Where: Ball Arena, Denver 

Public Bets: 77% on Colorado

Public Money: 83% on Colorado

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of April 26th, 2023

Seattle vs. Colorado In-Season Trends

Can the Kraken’s offense produce the way it did in the regular season?

Seattle was the best offense in the NHL at producing goals in five-on-five situations, but the Kraken only scored one of three goals at even strength in Game 4.

The winning goal as well as one of the first-period goals both got scored on the power play, and while that’s a plus, the Kraken can’t expect to live that way when Colorado gets the second line change and can match up its blue lines against a wounded power play unit. 

However, Colorado is without Makar, which could clog up the shooting lanes for the Avalanche’s attack.

Makar got the most attacks of the game with four shots on goal, and if someone else can’t create space any better, the UNDER is likely to cash again.

The UNDER has hit in all four meetings all-time in Colorado and is 7-1 in eight all-time matchups, and both teams are down a key piece of their attack.

Players to Watch

Justin Schultz knows how to set up teammates well. Betting on the Kraken’s prop players is often a foolish endeavor because so many players on this team can score (10 different Seattle players have scored in four playoff games), but Schultz is the exception.

He’s scored a point in every game in this series because he gets most of his points off assists. In four games, he’s earned four helpers as well as scored once, and with Vince Dunn struggling to break out, he’s the defenseman to trust.

On the other side of the coin, Seattle has to slow Mikko Rantanen.

Rantanen has converted 38.5% of his shots on goal, a number that’s way too high from Seattle’s perspective. If Rantanen keeps rolling at this pace, it’s hard to see the Kraken keeping up. Nathan MacKinnon is the only other Colorado player with more than one goal, and Seattle must keep it that way.

The Pick

This looks like a very low-scoring battle given how neither side is at full strength and both are defensive-minded sides. Throw in that Grubauer has played much better away from Seattle, and this looks like a tight game decided by a single goal.

As such, the value makes the puckline the better place to play this matchup.

Dan’s Picks

Kraken +1.5 UNDER 5.5 Justin Schultz Over 0.5 Points

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