Kentucky Derby Preview and Predictions
KENTUCKY DERBY PREVIEW AND PREDICTIONS – The Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs has become an extremely popular race with much anticipation. On Saturday, May 6, the race will take place in the first leg of the Triple Crown of horse racing. Last year, Rich Strike won the Kentucky Derby in one of the biggest upsets in horse racing history at 80-1 odds.
Rich Strike’s victory was the second-lowest odds to win the Derby in history, and he became just the second horse to win in the 20th post position since 1930.
So, who is the favorite this year and who is a long shot?
149th Kentucky Derby Date, Time, and TV
When: Saturday, May 6, 2023 at 6:57 PM ET at Churchill Downs, Kentucky
How to Watch: NBC
Purse: $3 million
Distance: 1 ¼ miles
Forecast: Cloudy with a high of 74 degrees
Kentucky Derby Odds
Here are the current odds for the Kentucky Derby, courtesy of DraftKings.
- Forte: +300
- Tapit Trice: +500
- Angel of Empire: +800
- Derma Sotogake: +1000
- Practical Move: +1000
- Two Phils: +1200
- Kingsbarns: +1200
- Verifying: +1500
- Mage: +1500
- Jace’s Road: +1500
- Raise Cain: +1500
- Rocket Can; +1500
The world of horse racing is always tough to predict, and last year’s victory by Rich Strike sure has thrown a massive wrench in this year’s Kentucky Derby as well.
Forte is the current favorite at 3-1 odds, but Tapit Trice has four straight wins, with one of them coming last month at the Blue Grass Stakes. Ironically enough, Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher is the trainer for both of the top two horses, so he should feel great entering the race.
Forte has won the past five races and got the victory at Kentucky Derby, so him being the favorite right now is about right. However, there are some long shots to think about, and Rich Strike’s victory surely has bettors considering some deeper options that would force a major payout.
Mage has just three races in his career, although two of those have been victories. He was at the Florida Derby and even led Forte before falling behind at the end of the race.
Practical Move, who had the fifth-highest odds, was scratched from the Kentucky Derby on Thursday due to an elevated temperature. Derma Sotogake is aiming to become the first Japanese-born horse to win the Kentucky Derby, so there are plenty of storylines entering this race.
Practical Move will be scratched from Kentucky Derby 149 due to an elevated temperature, according to trainer Tim Yakteen. pic.twitter.com/DsnHwqMgXc
— Kevin Kerstein (@HorseRacingKK) May 4, 2023
Bettors beware, especially after Rich Strike came out of nowhere to win the event last year at 80-1 odds. Will that happen again? It’s unlikely.
The longshot favorite here is Mage, who has gained steam from bettors over the past week after being listed as high as +2500, so that is definitely worth monitoring.
If you want to take a longshot bet, Mage is the perfect horse to run with. If you want to roll with one of the favorites, I’ll roll with Tapit Trice, and the absence of Practical Move should change the odds quite a bit over the next 48 hours.