Kansas vs. Texas Expert Pick - March 4, 2023
KANSAS VS. TEXAS EXPERT PICK - MARCH 4, 2023 -Â A bit of the luster has come off this game, as Texas lost its chance to try to share the Big 12 regular season title with Kansas. The Longhorns could have tied the Jayhawks for first had they won at TCU last time out, but a two-point loss at Fort Worth left Texas two games adrift of Kansas with one to play.
That said, it’s still a big game for the Longhorns. Texas currently sits in a three-way tie for second place in the Big 12, and a win here could be the difference between facing a quarterfinal rematch with TCU and an easier meeting with Oklahoma State. Texas still hasn’t been past the NCAA tournament’s first weekend since 2008, and going in with three straight regular season losses and a Big 12 tournament defeat could ruin any momentum the Longhorns have created.
Kansas, on the other hand, seems to be hitting its stride. The Jayhawks pulled away to claim the Big 12 regular season crown, and they’re riding a seven-game winning streak since getting beaten at Iowa State. They have struggled to find success in Austin as of late, however, losing two straight trips here.
The Odds
Matchup |
Open |
Spread |
Points |
Moneyline |
Kansas(25-5 SU, 14-16 ATS) |
O149 |
+3.5 |
O148.5 |
Off |
Texas(22-8 SU, 13-17 ATS) |
-3 |
-3.5 |
U148.5 |
Off |
Tipoff
When:Â Saturday, March 4th at 4 pm EST
Where: Moody Center, Austin, Texas
TV:Â ESPN
Public Bets:Â 65% on Kansas
Public Money:Â 60% on Texas
Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of March 4th, 2023
Kansas vs. Texas In-Season Trends
Defense has ruled the day as of late for Kansas. The Jayhawks went through a stretch where they put up 77 or more points in six of seven games, and the market overcorrected and sent Kansas’ past three totals to 147 or higher.
The Jayhawks played UNDER in three straight and have held three of their past six opponents to 63 points or less.
Texas has won seven straight Big 12 games at home, losing only to Kansas State in their first league home game of the season.
The Longhorns have covered in four straight in Austin, with only Baylor keeping the final deficit under 10 points. However, the past eight meetings in the Texas capital have seen the Jayhawks win five times and cover a +3.5 spread in two other meetings.
The Difference-Makers
Gradey Dick came up huge for Kansas in the first game, scoring 21 points as the Jayhawks won by an 88-80 score. He shot 63.6 percent from the field in that game, and that’s the best showing he’s had in his past 10 contests.
Considering that last time out, Dick scored just four points and didn’t make a shot against Texas Tech, he’ll likely be motivated to bounce back with a strong performance here.
Marcus Carr went for 29 points against Kansas when the teams met in Lawrence, but he has struggled to find his shot in the past two games.
In losses to TCU and Baylor, Carr shot just 7-for-23 from the field, and his shooting has seen a direct correlation with his team’s showing in the past seven Texas games.
When Carr has shot 50% or better, the Longhorns have won both games. When Carr shot below 50%, Texas went 1-4, only surviving last-place Oklahoma in overtime.
The Pick
Kansas has looked the part of a champion for the past month. The Jayhawks have only played out two poor performances in Big 12 play. Other than those two games, they’ve clearly been the best team in the league. Texas is reeling right now, and the Longhorns will have a hard time getting back on track in this matchup.
Plus, even if Texas does pull out a win here, the Longhorns’ past two wins in Austin have both come by a mere three points. With Kansas getting a free 3.5 here, the Jayhawks make sense.
Dan’s Picks |
Kansas +3.5Texas TTU 75.5 |