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Kansas vs. Oklahoma State Expert Pick – February 14, 2023

Kansas vs. Oklahoma State Expert Pick - February 14, 2023

KANSAS VS. OKLAHOMA STATE EXPERT PICK - FEBRUARY 14, 2023 — Opportunities don’t come much bigger for bubble teams than what Oklahoma State has in front of it Tuesday.

The analytics love the Cowboys’ defense and are coming around on their improving offense, and now Mike Boynton’s team gets a shot at a badly-needed resume boost. Kansas represents a Quad 1 opportunity at home, and a win could be the lift Oklahoma State needs to lock up its NCAA tournament spot.

But the Jayhawks are hot again and look to chase down Texas for the Big 12 title. Kansas can’t afford a slip here, not if it wants to play in Kansas City for the Midwest Regional. Check out my analysis and the odds below.

The Odds







(20-5 SU, 11-14 ATS)





Oklahoma State

(16-9 SU, 14-11 ATS)






When: Tuesday, February 14th at 9:00 pm EST

Where: Gallagher-Iba Arena, Stillwater, Okla.


Public Bets: 90% on Kansas

Public Money: 72% on Kansas

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of February 14th, 2023

Kansas vs. Oklahoma State In-Season Trends

One of the best things about the Big 12 is the double round-robin, so all of these teams have played each other once to date.

Kansas won the first meeting at Allen Fieldhouse for its fourth straight win over the Cowboys, but it was more survival than dominance. The Jayhawks escaped with a two-point win, a rare close game in this series.

Over the past 11 meetings, eight have been decided by double digits, and the Jayhawks have won 10 of them.

Stillwater Magic

That said, Oklahoma State is hard to beat in Stillwater.

The Cowboys own a 6-1 league record at Gallagher-Iba Arena, with Texas being the only visitor to escape with a win. Oklahoma State comes in having won five straight and seven of eight, putting the Cowboys on the right side of the bubble as the season dwindles.

The Jayhawks on the Road

When Kansas goes on the road in the Big 12, points usually don’t follow. The Jayhawks have played to the UNDER in four of their past five games away from Lawrence, including a 78-55 win over Oklahoma in their most recent game.

That fits well with Oklahoma State’s defense, but not its offense.

The Cowboys have played to the OVER in five of their past six games, and the exception happened because they held Iowa State to 35% shooting from the field. Both teams hold their opponents under 40% from the floor, which could make points hard to come by in Stillwater.

The Difference-Makers

The scary thing for Kansas opponents is that the Jayhawks can win without Jalen Wilson.

Against Texas, the Longhorns keyed in on Wilson and held him to just two points. But Gradey Dick scored 21 and Dajuan Harris Jr. added 17, and the Jayhawks won by eight.

Wilson averages 21.2 points per game, and he’s the main scoring option for KU. But if a team focuses on him, the Jayhawks won’t hesitate to go to another scorer.

Oklahoma State is not an offensive machine. The Cowboys win games by denying good looks at the basket and limiting opponents to one shot.

Moussa Cisse and Kalib Boone each grabbed eight rebounds against Iowa State and will be key to throwing Kansas off its game. Cisse lost the rebounding battle with Dick in Lawrence, which should give him extra motivation here.

The Pick

With Oklahoma State starting to find its footing on offense, this is the time to take a shot with the home underdogs.

This likely becomes a defensive battle, and in Stillwater, that favors Oklahoma State. The Jayhawks managed just 53 points at Iowa State 10 days ago, and although they handled Oklahoma pretty easily in Norman, the Sooners aren’t in the Cowboys’ class on defense.

Teams aren’t putting up big numbers at Gallagher-Iba Arena this season. Only TCU has broken 70 points in Stillwater this year, and Kansas has shown a willingness to play road grinders.

That leads me to think Oklahoma State slows down Kansas, and if that happens, I want to back the Cowboys here.

Dan's Picks

Oklahoma State ML (+110)

Oklahoma State +2

Kansas TTU 70 Points

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