Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers Expert Pick – December 3, 2023

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS EXPERT PICK – DECEMBER 3, 2023 – Greetings, football fans. Welcome back to our weekly NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins.

One of the games from Sunday’s slate features the Kansas City Chiefs (8-3) traveling to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers (5-6).  The Chiefs are tied for the second-best record in the AFC while the Packers are on the outside looking in as they are in a three-way tie with Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints for the eighth-best record in the NFC.

So, without further delay, let’s dive into this matchup to determine which team has the edge and why.

Kickoff

When: Sunday, December 3, 2023 at 8:20 PM ET

Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI

TV: NBC

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers – Regular Season Numbers & Betting Trends

The defending champs got off to a hot start, producing six wins in their first seven games. Since then, Kansas City has been a .500 team, with a 2-2 mark over their last four contests. Last week, the defending champs overcame a 14-point deficit en route to defeating the Las Vegas Raiders 31-17.  Patrick Mahomes completed 27 of his 34 passing attempts for 298 yards and two touchdowns.  Rashee Rice caught eight passes for 107 yards to go along with one touchdown. Isiah Pacheco contributed 55 yards on 15 carries and two touchdowns.

On the other side of this matchup, the Packers got off to a decent start as well, posting two wins across their first three outings.  Since then, Green Bay has produced a 3-5 record over their last eight contests. That is the bad news.  The good news is the Packers come into this contest amid a two-game winning streak.

This includes an impressive 29-22 against the division-leading Detroit Lions. Not an easy task by any means.  In the team’s win over the Lions, Jordan Love was 22-of-32 for 268 yards to go along with three touchdowns and no picks. Love also tacked on 39 rushing yards on three carries. Christian Watson caught five catches (on seven targets) for 94 yards, and he had one touchdown as well. Like the Chiefs, the Packers didn’t have much of a ground game as A.J. Dillon tallied 43 yards on 14 carries while adding three catches for 38 yards.

While this game means a lot to both teams, the Packers are in desperate need of a win to help keep their postseason hopes alive. Now that we have provided the backdrop for this matchup, here is a look at a few betting trends for both teams.

The Picks

The Spread

The Chiefs opened as a 7.5-point favorite. That line has moved to 5.5. Although this appears to be somewhat of a mismatch on paper, the trends below suggest that going with the Packers to cover is the smart choice.

• The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last five matchups against Green Bay.
• Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last six games played in Week 13.
• Meanwhile, the Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games played in Week 13.
• Green Bay is an impressive 8-4 ATS in its last 12 Sunday games.

Prediction: Green Bay Packers (+5.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup is 42.5 points. Here is a list of trends that suggest why taking the UNDER is the way to go.

• The UNDER total has hit six times in Kansas City’s last seven contests.
• In the Chiefs’ last five matchups against NFC-North opponents, the UNDER total prevailed four times.
• The UNDER total has cashed in five times in Green Bay’s last seven games.
• In the Packers’ last six home games, the total has gone UNDER five times.
• The last five times Green Bay played against an AFC opponent, the UNDER total hit four times.

Prediction: UNDER 42.5 points

Player Prop Bet

My key player to watch in this contest is Patrick Mahomes. He currently has -115 odds of finishing with more than 265.5 passing yards and -115 odds of finishing with less than 265.5 yards.

From a historical perspective, there is not much to go on. The only time Mahomes played against the Packers was back in November 2021. In that contest, Mahomes finished with a somewhat pedestrian stat line.  He completed 20 of 37 passes for 166 yards and one touchdown. The Chiefs won that low-scoring affair 13-7.

Fast forward to the present, Mahomes is averaging 265 passing yards per outing. Additionally, Mahomes is averaging 273 passing yards in his last seven outings. With that in mind, I’d suggest going with the “Over” for Mahomes in the matchup.

Prediction: Patrick Mahomes OVER 265.5 passing yards