Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens Best Prop Picks
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS. BALTIMORE RAVENS BEST PROP PICKS – The Chiefs and Ravens were two of the better defensive units this season. Both limited passing yards and made teams beat them by running the football, which did not happen often.
They were also first (Baltimore) and second (Kansas City) in points allowed per game. They got to this game because their defenses were top-tier, and it will show in this game.
I will give you my three best prop wagers for Sunday, and be sure to check out the Godzilla Wins Daily Staff Picks page.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire over/under 16.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
The Chiefs’ backfield is dealing with multiple injuries, which should benefit Edwards-Helaire. Isiah Pacheco has a turf toe and an ankle injury and is questionable to play.
I would expect him to play, but there is a reinjury risk and likely a production dip. Pacheco practiced in a limited fashion on Friday after missing the first two practice sessions. Jerick McKinnon was on the injured reserve before the postseason, so depth was already an issue.
CEH gained 31 yards on two carries last week and caught one pass for a loss of one yard. He averaged 3.2 yards per carry and 11.1 yards per reception (17 total receptions).
He has nine carries for 52 this postseason and two targets. He has not been efficient like Pacheco, but the injury likely affects their usage. CEH played 26% of snaps last week, and I expect that number to increase this week. This total is too low, and this market helps if he catches a screen that goes for a monster gain.
The Pick: Edwards-Helaire Over 16.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Patrick Mahomes over/under 4.5 Rush Attempts
The Ravens have been dominant against the pass this season. They only allowed 191.9 passing yards per game this season and 175 through two postseason games. The Chiefs do not have great receivers and will be without two.
Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney are not playing, so the receiving corps likely gets a lot of reps in this game. Joe Thuney is also out due to a pectoral injury, so pressure coming up the middle is a major possibility. Mahomes will have to make plays with his legs like he did last week.
He ran six times for 19 yards last week, including a 24-yard scamper for his long of the game. All of these conditions could make Mahomes scramble more than usual.
He has shown in previous playoff games that he is willing to put his body on the line to pick up extra yards and should have to again. Good pass defenses are the common denominator in games where Mahomes has to use his legs, and the Ravens are a stellar unit.
The Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 4.5 Rush Attempts
Lamar Jackson over/under 64.5 Rushing Yards
The Chiefs have been great against the pass this season, only allowing 176.5 passing yards per game. The one area they struggle with is against the run.
They allow 113.2 rushing yards per game, and the Ravens averaged the most rushing yards (156.5) per game this season. Lamar Jackson was the leading rusher this season on the team, with 821 yards in the regular season and 100 yards in one game this postseason.
The Chiefs did not set the edge well this season. Quarterbacks ran 91 times for 342 yards and four TDs against them this season. Those are all in the bottom third of the league.
Jackson likely gets Mark Andrews back for this game, but I still expect him to be all over the field. Jackson averaged 9.1 yards per carry and scored twice last week. He may not find the end zone that many times on Sunday, but expect him to be the leading rusher for his team.
The Pick: Lamar Jackson Over 64.5 Rushing Yards
