Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills Expert Pick – January 21, 2024
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS. BUFFALO BILLS EXPERT PICK – JANUARY 21, 2024 – The NFL script is in full force and the plotline couldn’t be better today with the Kansas City Chiefs visiting the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round of the playoffs. The Bills finally have Patrick Mahomes and company traveling to Orchard Park for a playoff showdown. This is the seventh meeting between these teams with three being in the playoffs. This is Mahomes first road playoff game of his career. His only playoff experience outside of Arrowhead Stadium is his three Super Bowl appearances.
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Josh Allen and the Bills continued their remarkable turnaround this season defeating the Pittsburgh Steelers 31-17 in the Wild Card Round. This week is less chaotic as the winter weather didn’t cause any delays as it did last week. The Chiefs had no problems in their 26-7 rout of the Miami Dolphins who looked like ‘fish out of water’ playing in the frigid conditions in Kansas City.
Get out your popcorn, get ready to ‘Shake it Off’ and sit back with your My Pillow to watch the marquee matchup of the weekend and maybe win some money!
Read below for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills Expert Pick – January 21, 2024.
The Odds
Matchup |
Open |
Spread |
Total |
Moneyline |
Kansas City Chiefs(12-6 SU, 10-6-1 ATS) |
+2.5 |
+2.5 |
O45.5 |
+120 |
Buffalo Bills(12-6 SU, 12-5 ATS) |
O/U 46.5 |
-2.5 |
U45.5 |
-142 |
Kickoff
When: Sunday, January 21, 2024, at 6:30 PM ET
Where: Highmark Stadium inOrchard Park, NY
TV: CBS
How the Bills Win
Josh Allen is on fire right now. He is the NFL’s leader in total touchdowns with 44 (29 passing, 15 rushing) and added four to that total last week against the Steelers. It’s his dual threat ability that will keep the Chief’s defender on their heels as he had a 52-yard rushing touchdown last week. The defense has been playing well as of late, but they are decimated with injuries heading into this game. Linebacker and leading tackler Terrel Bernard was carted off the field last week with an ankle injury. Starting defensive backs Rasul Douglas and Taylor Rapp as well as Tyrel Dodson have all been ruled out. CB Taron Johnson will be limited but is still in concussion protocol.
“I think there’s hope, He’s in meetings this morning,” said coach Sean McDermott. “I’m thankful, that it could have been way worse.”
Look for the defense to sit in a lot of zone defense to keep the ball in front of them and let the Chief’s make mistakes and drop passes.
How the Chiefs win
This will be a true test for the Chiefs as Mahomes plays on the road for the first time in his career. Kansas City took advantage of a Dolphins team that just can’t perform in those conditions. The dropped passes that plagued this team throughout the season were minimized last week. Rashee Rice caught eight passes for 130 yards, converting six first downs.
“The Bills are a great challenge. I think everybody understands that,” said Mahomes. They’ve gotten my number a lot of times. We’ve been lucky enough to get them in the playoffs, but they beat us earlier this year, so we understand that we’re going to have to play our best football to win the game, especially at their place.”
The defense must pressure or spy on Allen to stop the big play opportunities. Defensive end George Karlaftis has come on strong and had 1.5 sacks last week and is tied for the team lead at 10.5 with Chris Jones.
The Pick
We like to frame the matchup between the Bills and Chiefs as the best rivalry in football. For this to continue the Bills must win one of these playoff matchups. Josh Allen finally advances past Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. The Bills control the tempo, and the Chiefs drop more passes leading to a 27-19 victory for the Buffalo Bills.
Mitch’s Pick |
Bills -2.5 |