John Fredericks: MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, April 11th

Godzilla MLB Record 2023: 5-3 + $150 for the Season*

*Based on all wagers at $100 per game at money or run line odds as specified in DraftKings. Note: If moneyline is -150 we are laying $150 to win $100, etc.   

JOHN FREDERICKS: MLB BEST BETS FOR TUESDAY, APRIL 11th – Well, as predicted I am yet to win an over-under game of any type in any sport in my life, going now something like 0-50. I bet my first one in baseball last night…taking the OVER 8.5 runs in the Rays-Red Sox game. I said in my column yesterday that, if the game ends 1-0, then I’m done with O/U runs for the season. The final score: 1-0, of course.  

Tuesday April 11  

Yankees (-170) at Cleveland  

After losing on the river last night, I like Cole to come back this evening with another dominant performance against these young Guardian hitters.

He has been lights out so far this season: 2-0, .073 ERA and 19 K’s in 12 innings. While Cleveland’s Hunter Gaddis is no slouch, this is just too much Cole on a cold April night in Cleveland.  

Pick: Bombers (-170)  

 

Astros (-178) at Bucs   

When Houston gets hot you ride them. Javier is always a tough draw, and their bullpen is relatively rested. 

The Pirates are an exciting young team in many ways, but they looked over-matched last night. Yordan Alvarez is on fire, getting on base five times last night. 

Remember, the Astros have been the best road team the past two seasons.  

Pick: Houston (-178)  

Marlins (+135) at Phillies  

This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and we are getting great value with Miami tonight. 

Philadelphia has averaged just 1.7 runs per game against lefty starters so far, hitting .260 as a team against them with an on-base percentage of .302 

Once again, the Phil’s suspect pen has struggled this season with an ERA of 6.75. It’s getting worse, not better. It’s their Achilles Heel.  

The Marlins’ Jesus Luzardo is the real deal and Philly has hit just .208 lifetime against him. He was dominant last week against the Twins where he pitched five innings, struck out 10, and issued one free pass. 

Aaron Nola is your resident wild card. Who knows what he does game-to-game.

I’ll take the price on the fish and hope that Nola craps out. If he throws a two-hitter against me, I’ll drink a non-alcoholic beverage before hitting the sack.  

Pick: Marlins (+135)