Indiana vs. Purdue Expert Pick

Indiana vs. Purdue Expert Pick - February 25, 2023

INDIANA VS. PURDUE EXPERT PICK - FEBRUARY 25, 2023 - Perhaps the two best players in the Big Ten face off again, as Indiana star Trayce Jackson-Davis and the Hoosiers head north to face Zach Edey and Purdue. For the Boilermakers, it’s a chance to put a chokehold on the Big Ten regular season title; a win here and any Northwestern loss would lock up first place for Purdue.

It's also a chance to even the score with Indiana, something Purdue has had no problem doing in West Lafayette. The Hoosiers have become competitive again in the rivalry over the past two seasons, but they haven’t broken through at Mackey Arena. Purdue has won seven straight over Indiana in West Lafayette, and the Hoosiers haven’t swept the Boilermakers since 2013.

There’s also the real problem of Indiana’s performances away from Assembly Hall. In 11 true road games, the Hoosiers are just 5-6, and only against Illinois did they really put together a strong showing on the road. Tuesday’s loss against Michigan State marked the fourth time in league play that Indiana has fallen by double digits on the road. That’s a worrying trend going to Purdue — which has beaten its past four visitors by an average of 19.25 points.

Indiana vs. Purdue In-Season Trends

Purdue has looked tired in recent games, losing three of its past five. But that appears to be because the Boilers keep facing fired-up home crowds. In front of its own fans at Mackey Arena, Purdue has been a machine. Out of eight home games in the Big Ten, Purdue is 7-1 SU (Rutgers) and 6-2 ATS (Rutgers and Maryland) and rarely lets opponents hang around. Besides the loss to the Scarlet Knights, Maryland is the only team to come to West Lafayette and leave with the margin of defeat under 10.

Purdue’s total performances seem to come in waves, as the Boilers have failed to go over in three consecutive games. Before this stretch, though, Purdue had played OVER in five straight games.

Indiana has mostly won with defense, playing to the UNDER in five of its past seven games. The Hoosiers’ success directly correlates with their defense’s success; of their 10 league victories, nine of them came when they held their opposition to 70 points or less. The exception was the 79-74 win over Purdue, as the Hoosiers took full advantage of Purdue’s 16 turnovers to triumph.

The Difference-Makers

Edey dominated the first matchup, scoring 33 points and grabbing 18 rebounds. Had Purdue not waited so long to get started, the Boilers’ second-half surge might have lifted them to victory in Bloomington.

Instead, the Hoosiers were content to let Edey get his stats while they kept focused on the lead. Fletcher Loyer was the only one to hit double figures in the first meeting, as the rest of the team struggled with the Hoosiers’ stern defense.

Indiana, conversely, kept the ball in the hands of its stars. The Hoosiers know they’ll need Jackson-Davis to win, and they got a great effort from him when the teams squared off in Bloomington.

Jackson-Davis couldn’t hold his own on the glass with Edey, but he did score 25 points that game. The Hoosiers will need a similarly strong performance out of him to have a hope of staying in the game.

The Pick

If Indiana needed this game to make the NCAA tournament, that would be one thing. But the Hoosiers don’t have that situation, as they’re all but safely in the tournament.

As such, I expect the Hoosiers to return to the struggles that they’ve shown time and time again away from Assembly Hall. The amount of points you get here with Indiana is tempting, but Purdue plays its best basketball in West Lafayette.

I can’t see the Boilermakers turning the ball over 16 times again, and if they avoid those issues, Indiana doesn’t really have a good backup plan in place. That should lift Purdue to a cover in what looks like a defensive battle.

Indiana vs. Purdue Expert Pick – February 25, 2023