Indiana Pacers vs. Phoenix Suns Expert Pick – January 21, 2024

INDIANA PACERS VS. PHOENIX SUNS EXPERT PICK – JANUARY 21, 2024 –Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. After our earlier look at the Celtics vs. Rockets, another game on Sunday’s slate features the Indiana Pacers (24-19 SU, 24-18-1 ATS) taking on the Phoenix Suns (23-18 SU, 15-25-1 ATS).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Sunday, January 21, 2024

Time: 7:00 PM ET

Where: Toyota Center

Location: Houston, TX

TV: Space City Home Network and NBCS-BOS

 

Indiana Pacers vs. Phoenix Suns Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Indiana Pacers (24-19 SU, 24-18-1 ATS)	+4.5	+4.5	O248.5	+150
Phoenix Suns (23-18 SU, 15-25-1 ATS)	U244	-4.5	U248.5	-180

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Indiana Pacers vs. Phoenix Suns — Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Pacers Cool Off The Suns?

Indiana Pacers Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 116.3 PPG – 10^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 114.6 points per 100 possessions – 19^TH
• Scoring Defense: 119.5 PPG – 29^TH        
• Defensive Efficiency: 117.7 points per 100 possessions – 26^TH

Although the Pacers have won six of their last 10 games, they have dropped three of their past four decisions. This includes a 118-115 loss to the Portland Trail Blazers on Friday night.

Myles Turner was the standout player for the Pacers in that matchup. He scored a team-high 29 points, collected 12 rebounds, and blocked five shots. Tyrese Haliburton – who returned to the team’s rotation after missing five games with a hamstring injury – scored 21 points to go along with 12 assists.

Pascal Siakam – who was acquired from the Toronto Raptors via a multi-team trade – finished with 21 points, six boards, and three dimes in his debut with the Pacers.

Indiana is seeking to end its six-game road trip on a positive note. But for that to happen, it will need a better defensive effort against a Phoenix team that has been playing well over the past week and a half.

Can The Suns Hand The Pacers Their Fourth Loss In Five Games?

 Phoenix Suns Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 116.1 PPG – 13^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 117.8 points per 100 possessions – 11^TH   
• Scoring Defense: 114.3 PPG – 15^TH
• Defensive Efficiency: 115.9 points per 100 possessions – 16^TH

On the other side of this matchup, we have a Suns team that is cooking. Not only have they posted seven wins in their last 10 outings, but they have also won each of their last four games. This includes a 123-109 victory over the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday night.

Devin Booker erupted for a season-high of 52 points. He also had five assists and four rebounds. It was the second straight game in which he topped the 50-point plateau against New Orleans. The last time he was in the starting lineup against the Pelicans (Dec. 17, 2022), he scored 58 points.

Kevin Durant added 26 points and five rebounds, while Bradley Beal contributed 13 points, seven rebounds, and five assists.

The Suns held New Orleans to 44.1 percent shooting from the field and 10-for-42 (23.8 percent) from beyond the arc. If they can duplicate that defensive effort against Indiana, they should push their winning streak to five games.

Now that we have set the table for another East vs. West matchup, let us look at the all-important betting trends for both sides.

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The Spread

The Suns enter this matchup as a 4.5-point favorite. Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the spread this season.

• The Pacers are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games.
• Indiana is 2-5 ATS in their last seven matchups against Phoenix.
• The Pacers are 4-2 ATS in their last six Sunday games.
• The Suns are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 outings.
• Phoenix is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games.
• In their last seven matchups against Eastern Conference opponents, the Suns are 1-6 against the spread.

Based on these trends, going with the road team to cover the spread is the best option here.

Prediction: Indiana Pacers (+4.5)

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Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 244 points. The line has recently moved to 248.5 points. Here is why going with the “UNDER” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone UNDER five times in the Pacers’ last six games.
• The UNDER total has hit nine times in Indiana’s last 10 road games.
• In the Pacers’ last nine games against the Suns, the UNDER total cashed in eight times.
• The total has gone UNDER four times in the Suns’ last five matchups against Indiana.

Prediction: UNDER 248.5 points

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Player Prop Bets

The key player for the road team is newcomer, Pascal Siakam. He currently has -120 odds of scoring more than 21.5 points and -110 odds of finishing with less than 21.5 points. Here is a look at how his numbers compare with the projected points total.

• On the season, Siakam is averaging 22.2 points per outing.
• In 21 road contests, he is averaging 22.0 PPG.
• Siakam has played 13 times against Western Conference teams. In those contests, he is averaging 20.3 points per outing.
• During the month of January, he is averaging 23.0 PPG.
• Over his last 10 outings, Siakam is averaging 24.6 points per game, exceeding the points total for this matchup six times during that stretch.

Going with the “over” for Siakam is the smart choice based on the above trends.

Prediction: Pascal Siakam OVER 21.5 points

The key player to watch for the home team is Devin Booker. He currently has -120 odds of scoring more than 27.5 points and -110 odds of scoring less than 27.5 points. Let us see how his season splits stack up against the projected points total.

• On the season, Booker is averaging 27.0 points per outing.
• In 18 home games, he is averaging 26.6 PPG.
• Booker has played against Eastern Conference teams eight times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 25.1 points per outing.
• During the month of January, Booker is averaging 26.9 PPG.
• Over his last 10 outings, he is averaging 26.3 points per contest, exceeding the points total just four times during that stretch.

Given the above trends, going with the “under” for Booker is the best option.

Prediction: Devin Booker UNDER 27.5 points

James’s Pacers vs. Suns Picks

Spread: Pacers (+4.5) Over/Under: UNDER 248.5 points Player Prop Bet #1: Pascal Siakam Over 21.5 points Player Prop Bet #2: Devin Booker Under 27.5 points