Indiana Fever vs. Dallas Wings Expert Pick – September 3, 2023

INDIANA FEVER VS. DALLAS WINGS EXPERT PICK – SEPTEMBER 3, 2023 – Greetings basketball fans. Welcome back to our weekend WNBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. After our earlier look at the Liberty vs Sky, our next game features the Indiana Fever (11-25) taking on the Dallas Wings (20-16).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 4:00 PM ET

Where: College Park Center, Arlington Texas

TV: ESPN3, and BSSWX

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

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INDIANA FEVER VS DALLAS WINGS – SEASON TRENDS

Indiana Fever Will Miss The Playoffs Once Again

The Indiana Fever are 4-6 across their last 10 games. This includes a 110-100 loss to the Dallas Wings on Friday. Rookie forward Aliyah Boston finished with a team-high 27 points along with 11 rebounds and five assists. Boston is just the fifth rookie in WNBA history to finish with a stat line of at least 25 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists.

The other players who accomplished this feat are Diana Taurasi, Candace Parker, Breanna Stewart, and A’ja Wilson. Unfortunately, it was not enough to prevent Indiana from losing the game and being eliminated from playoff contention.

Indiana comes into this matchup ranked sixth in scoring (81.3 PPG) and fifth in efficiency (103.7 points per 100 possessions). However, this squad has the worst defense in the association, giving up 85.4 points per contest and 108.9 points per 100 possessions.

Dallas Wings Are Looking To Lock Down No. 4 Spot In Playoff Race

The Wings have not fared much better, as they are 5-5 across their last 10 outings. However, they come into this matchup amid a two-game winning streak. This includes a 110-100 victory over this same Indiana Fever team they played on Friday. In that contest, Satau Sabally scored a career-high 40 points, including 28 in the second half.  She shot 13-for-19 from the field and 7-for-10 from beyond the arc. Sabally had missed the team’s previous two games with an ankle injury.

Dallas has the third-best offense in the association. But the narrative is somewhat different from a defensive perspective. The Wings are ranked ninth in points allowed (84.4 PPG) and eighth in defensive rating (105.6 points per 100 possessions). Dallas is looking to push its winning streak to three games and stay ahead of the Minnesota Lynx – who trail them by 2.5 games in the standings.

The Picks

The Spread

The Wings are 9.5-point favorites in this matchup. Let’s look at why going with Dallas to cover the spread is a smart play.

• Indiana is 5-12 ATS in the last 17 times they played on a Sunday.
• The Fever are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning record.
• Indiana is 3-6 ATS in its last nine road games.
• Dallas is 4-0 ATS in its last four games against Eastern Conference teams.
• The Wings are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games against the Fever.

Prediction: Dallas Wings (-9.5)

Over/Under

The projected O/U total for this contest is 170 points. Here are some trends that suggest why going with the under is a wise move.

• The UNDER is 4-0 for the Fever in their last four road games.
• The UNDER is 8-2 for Indiana in its last 10 games following an ATS loss.
• The UNDER total has prevailed 10 times in the past 14 meetings between these teams.
• The UNDER total is 16-4 in Dallas’ last 20 home games against Indiana.

Prediction: Under 170 points

Player Prop Bet

My key player to watch in this contest is Dallas Wings guard Arike Ogunbowale. She currently has -115 odds to score more than 20.5 points and she has -115 odds to score less than 20.5 points.

Ogunbowale is averaging 21 points per contest, which is the second-highest per-game average of her career. And she has scored 20-plus points in five of her last seven outings. Given the Wings’ defensive struggles. I would strongly suggest going with the over here.

Prediction: Arike Ogunbowale OVER 20.5 points