Heat vs. Celtics Game 7 Pick and Prediction

HEAT VS. CELTICS GAME 7 PICK AND PREDICTION – Believe it or not, the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat will play a Game 7 in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Miami was up 3-0 and everything looked to be going its way until the Celtics came roaring back and Derrick White tipped in an improbable Game 6 buzzer-beater to send this series to Boston for the winner-take-all game. 

Let’s examine the odds and predictions for Game 7.

The Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Miami Heat (3-3 SU in Series)	O203.5	+7.5	O203.5	+250
Boston Celtics (3-3 SU in Series)	-8.5	-7.5	U203.5	-300

Tipoff

When: Monday, May 29, 2023 at 8:30 PM EST 

Where: TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts 

TV: TNT 

Public Money: Heat, 55%

Public Bets: Celtics, 56%

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of May 29, 2023

What Is Going On? 

Just a few days ago, this series looked over and the Heat seemed destined for an NBA Finals trip against all odds. Now, the Celtics have surged back and are hosting a Game 7. 

The Celtics held a tight lead at halftime of Game 6 but then got outscored by the Heat in the fourth quarter, 31-25. The Heat had a one-point lead with just three seconds left, and Marcus Smart missed a three-pointer. 

Then, Derrick White played hero with a rebound and a tip-in that left his hand with 0.1 remaining, crushing the hearts of Miami fans. 

Jayson Tatum led the way with 31 points and 12 rebounds on 8-22, although he was 0-8 from three-point land. Jaylen Brown went 9-16 from the field with 26 points and 10 rebounds, and Marcus Smart chipped in 21 points. 

Jimmy Butler had a rough night offensively, shooting 5-21 but finding a way to finish with 24 points, 11 rebounds, and 8 assists. Bam Adebayo disappointed with a 4-16 clip but added 13 boards, but the Heat stars have to be much better if they want to win Game 7 and face the Denver Nuggets in the NBA Finals.

Look Ahead To Game 7 

Not many people thought Boston would be at this point after going down 3-0. No team has ever come back from that deficit, and the Celtics are one win away from making history. 

The home-court advantage will be key here, but it’s only a matter of time before Jimmy Butler unleashes the Himmy play that he had the entire playoff run thus far. If he does, Boston is in a lot of trouble. 

The Heat did get another strong outing from Caleb Martin and Gabe Vincent, who combine for 36 points on the evening. The Heat also held Boston to a 20% clip from three-point land, and if it weren’t for Derrick White’s tip-in, the Heat would be preparing for the NBA Finals. 

On one hand, we all want to see the Celtics make NBA history. On the other, an 8-seed that lost the first game of the play-in tournament making the NBA Finals would be something else. 

Prediction 

Over/Under 

This seems like an easy call. The offenses have gone stagnant, and the defense has tightened a ton. These teams are exhausted, and the over/under is set at 203.5. For some perspective, that barely went over in Game 6, but I’ll stick with it going over in Game 7. That number is incredibly low. 

The Spread 

Will we see Butler go 5-21? Will we see Bam go 4-16? It’s doubtful, especially in Game 7. These two teams faced off in Game 7 exactly a year ago (May 29, 2022). Butler played every single minute and scored 35 points with 9 boards and Bam Adebayo had 25 and 9 in a four-point loss. 

Tatum had 26 and Brown and Smart each scored 24 as the Celtics won the East and went to the NBA Finals. The Heat were up 3-0 for a reason, and it’s hard to imagine them losing back-to-back years in Game 7 against the same team. 

I’ll go with the Heat in a close game as Butler drops a 40-piece and outs Miami on his back after a few lackluster performances.

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Matt’s Picks

OVER 203.5 points Heat (+8.5) Jimmy Butler OVER 28.5 points