Heat vs. Celtics Game 5 Pick and Prediction

HEAT VS. CELTICS GAME 5 PICK AND PREDICTION – The Boston Celtics survived for at least one more day with a Game 4 victory over the Miami Heat to avoid the sweep. 

Boston saw all five starters finish in double figures and held the Heat to their lowest-scoring output of the series. As a result, the Celtics now go back to Boston for Game 5 and a terrific opportunity to move the series to 3-2. 

Here are the odds and prediction for Game 5.

The Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Boston Celtics (1-3 SU in Series)	O215	+8	O215.5	+250
Miami Heat (3-1 SU in Series)	-7.5	-8	U215.5	-300

Tipoff

When: Thursday. 8:30 pm EST on May 25th. 2023

Where: TD Garden

TV: TNT

Public Money: Heat, 85

Public Bets: Celtics, 53%

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of May 24, 2023

Game 4 Recap 

The Boston Celtics looked dead in the water after a 26-point blowout in Game 3. But, with the season on the line, the Celtics delivered and won the game 116-99. Jayson Tatum did his thing with a game-high 33 points, 11 rebounds, and 7 assists on 14-22 from the field. 

Jaylen Brown had 17 points and Derrick White added 16, with Al Horford and Marcus Smart both scoring double digits. Grant Williams played 29 minutes off the bench and had 14 points with 6 rebounds in a solid outing, and the Celtics overcame a halftime deficit to outscore Miami 66-43 in the second half. 

Jimmy Butler did all he could, scoring a team-high 29 points on 9-21 from the field with 9 rebounds. Bam Adebayo had just 10 points and Gabe Vincent had another strong showing with 17. Caleb Martin added 16 off the bench, but the Het couldn’t deal with the Celtics shooting 51% from the field and 45% from beyond the arc. 

Anytime a team shoots that well from the field, it likely leads to a win, and home-court advantage didn’t seem to matter one bit in Game 4. 

Game 5 Preview 

Now, suddenly, the series has some life. It’s just one victory for Boston, but now two of the next three games (if necessary), are in Boston. If Boston wins Game 5, the momentum suddenly shifts to the Celtics. 

Tatum has been one of the best players this entire postseason and there are no signs of stopping now. He had 51 in that unreal Game 7 against the Philadelphia 76ers, and as long as the Celtics have even a little bit of life, he will give it all he has. 

The Celtics should be able to take Game 5 in what should be a rowdy environment in Boston, and this series is likely gong back to Miami for Game 6. However, no team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit, so it’s just hard to believe the Celtics do the unimaginable and win the series being down this much. 

Over/Under 

The Game 4 over/under was set at 216.5, and it ended with a total of 215 points. Both teams emptied the bench in the final few minutes, so take it as you will. 

However, the Heat should play a closer game on Thursday night in Boston, and this one likely comes down to the final minutes. I’ll take the over here, just slightly. 

Prediction 

Jimmy Butler does his thing with a 30-point outing, and Caleb Martin continues his impressive play. However, I think we see a massive Jayson Tatum game where he scores 40 or more points. After Game 3, it didn’t look like the series would even come back to Boston, yet here we are. 

Jaylen Brown and the rest of the supporting cast will do enough to keep the score in Boston’s favor, but he 8.5-point spread seems to be awfully large, given the way the entire series has gone up until this point. 

I’ll take the Celtics to win the ML, but give me the Heat to cover the spread in one of the better games of the playoffs.

Matt’s Picks

OVER 215.5 Heat -8