Gonzaga vs. Texas Expert Pick and Prediction – March 29, 2024 

GONZAGA VS. TEXAS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – March 29, 2024 — Once again, it’s March and there are questions about how well prepared Gonzaga is to play a game like this. However, these questions aren’t about the Gonzaga men, but the Gonzaga women.

Under Lisa Fortier, Gonzaga’s women have become almost as dominant in the West Coast Conference as Mark Few has made the men. But Fortier’s squad is now facing the same type of questions Few did a decade ago when the Bulldogs couldn’t get over the hump against the biggest names. While the men have made nine straight Sweet 16s, the women haven’t reached this level since 2015.

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And in this game, the Bulldogs face an opponent that they might be completely unprepared to play.

Under Vic Schaefer, Texas’ defense is one of the best in the nation. That was the formula Schaefer used to turn Mississippi State into a national power, and it’s working just as well in Austin. The Longhorns have given up 96 points total in the tournament and have held nine of their 36 opponents in the 40s or less.

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Gonzaga hasn’t scored less than 66 points all season, as the Bulldogs are used to outrunning everyone on their schedule. But the Bulldogs lost that game to Portland, and there’s no evidence they can handle a team that forces them to figure things out. Texas won’t allow them to run, which could muck up Gonzaga’s efforts.

The Odds 

Matchup	Open	Spread	Points	Moneyline
Gonzaga (32-3 SU)	O141.5	+5.5	O141.5	+180
Texas (32-4 SU)	-5.5	-5.5	U141.5	-260

Tipoff 

When: Friday, March 29 at 10 p.m. EST 

Where: MVP Arena, Albany, N.Y.

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable 

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of March 29th, 2024

Gonzaga vs. Texas In-Season Trends 

Gonzaga can handle a defensive game on the defensive side of the ball, as the Bulldogs showed in wins over UC Irvine and Utah. But as with the men, the WCC didn’t exactly provide much preparation for the Bulldogs. And unlike the men, there’s no Saint Mary’s on the women’s side (there is, but the Gaels were 13-18) to push Gonzaga. Portland managed to play slow-down and upset Gonzaga, but that was the only conference game all season decided by single digits.

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Texas has to prevent teams from running, because the Longhorns have proven vulnerable when they can’t slow a team down. Oklahoma knew how to handle Texas and bested the Longhorns twice, something nobody else managed all year. Baylor also beat Texas by speeding up the tempo and outrunning the Longhorns. But when Texas set the tempo, only Kansas State was able to handle it.

The Difference-Makers 

When you slow the game down and frustrate opponents, you don’t always need a deeper bench. Texas didn’t use its bench much at all against Alabama, as three starters played all 40 minutes. The combination of Madison Booker and Aaliyah Moore represents a tough duo in the post, as they scored 42 of Texas’ 65 points last time out.

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Gonzaga also relies mostly on its starting five and will need another big game from Yvonne Ejim. The Bulldogs got a double-double from Ejim against Utah, and her presence in the post would make a big difference in neutralizing Booker and Moore.

The Pick 

The Bulldogs have the talent, but they don’t really have the preparation to deal with the way Texas plays. There’s only so much you can do to prep for a team with Texas’ combination of talent and defense, and Gonzaga hasn’t done it.

That’s going to bite the Bulldogs here. The Longhorns should squeeze them out.

Dan’s Picks

Texas -5.5    Under 141.5