Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers Expert Pick – March 16, 2024

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS VS. LOS ANGELES LAKERS EXPERT PICK – MARCH 16, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins.

One of the games on tap from tonight’s slate features the Golden State Warriors (34-31 SU, 36-29 ATS) taking on the Los Angeles Lakers (37-31 SU, 31-37 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Saturday, March 16, 2024

Time: 8:30 PM ET

Where: Crypto.com Arena

Location: Los Angeles, CA

TV: ABC

 

Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Golden State Warriors (34-31 SU, 36-29 ATS)	+5.5	+2	O233.5	+114
Los Angeles Lakers (37-31 SU, 31-37 ATS)	U234.5	-2	U233.5	-135

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Warriors Hang On To Their Play-In Spot Following Three Losses In Their Last Four Outings?

Golden State Warriors Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 118.2 PPG – 8^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 117.4 points per 100 possessions – 12^TH
• Scoring Defense: 116.7 PPG – 18^TH                    
• Defensive Efficiency: 115.8 points per 100 possessions – 15^TH

The Warriors have split their last 10 contests, and they enter this matchup following a 109-99 loss to the Dallas Mavericks. Jonathan Kuminga paced the Warriors’ offense with 27 points and four rebounds.

Andrew Wiggins added 17 points and five assists, while Trayce Jackson-Davis contributed with a 10-point, nine-rebound effort in a losing cause.

Without their top scorer in the lineup, the Warriors had a tough time generating offense. They shot 40.2 percent from the field and 32.1 percent from beyond the arc. Despite the team’s recent setback, Steve Kerr offered an optimistic assessment.

“I like the team a lot better now than I did a couple of months ago where we were really sorting through things,” Kerr said, via ESPN. “We have an identity. I think we’ll bounce back here, and I’m excited about the last part of the season.”

Stephen Curry has missed the last three outings with an ankle injury, and the team is 1-2 without him in the lineup. That said, Golden State is hoping that he can return against the Lakers.

Can The Lakers Bounce Back From Their Recent Loss To the Kings?

Los Angeles Lakers Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 117.1 PPG – 10^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 115.4 points per 100 possessions – 17^TH          
• Scoring Defense: 117.6 PPG – 22^ND
• Defensive Efficiency: 115.9 points per 100 possessions – 16^TH

The Lakers currently hold down the ninth spot in the conference playoff race and lead the Warriors by a slim one-game lead in the standings. Like the Warriors, the Lakers come into this matchup on the heels of a loss as well, as they were defeated by the Sacramento Kings 120-107.

Austin Reaves did the heavy lifting in that contest, scoring 28 points on 10-for-17 shooting from the field and 7-for-12 from distance.

Anthony Davis did not shoot the ball particularly well (7-for-18 from the field), but he finished with 22 points and 10 rebounds. Rui Hachimura added 20 points in 36 minutes of action. The Lakers trailed by just a four-point margin (60-56) at the break. However, the Kings pulled away in the game-changing third quarter, outscoring Los Angeles 28-17.

“Can’t skip details,” Ham said after the game. “We had some guys who didn’t shoot the ball well, got great looks they usually make. But just in the sense of team basketball, just continuing to have a next-play mentality.”

Los Angeles will look to get back into the win column and take a 2-1 lead in the season series.

Now that we have set the table for this Western Conference showdown, let’s look at the betting trends for both sides.

The Spread

The Lakers opened as a 5.5-point favorite (per OddShark.com). But according to DraftKings, the line has dipped to 2.5 points for the home team. Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

• The Warriors are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 contests.
• Golden State is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 matchups against Los Angeles.
• The Warriors are 0-6 ATS in their six road games against the Lakers.
• In Golden State’s last six March games, the team is 2-4 against the spread.
• The Lakers are 3-6 ATS in their nine matchups against Pacific Division teams.

Prediction: Golden State Warriors (+2.5)

---

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 236.5 points. At the time of this writing, the line has dipped to 233.5 points (per Pre-Game.com). Here is why going with the “under” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone UNDER 10 times in the Warriors’ last 12 games.
• In Golden States’s last six road contests, the “UNDER” total cashed in ALL six times.
• The UNDER total prevailed four times in the Warriors’ last five matchups against Western Conference opponents.
• The total has gone UNDER four times in the Lakers’ last five games against Pacific Division teams.

Prediction: UNDER 233 points

---

Player Prop Bet

Following his 28-point performance against Sacramento, the key player to watch in this matchup is Austin Reaves. He currently has -120 odds of scoring more than 16.5 points and -110 odds of finishing with less than 16.5 points.

Let’s see how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• In nine career games against the Warriors, he is averaging 12.4 points per game.
• On the season, Reaves is averaging 16 points per outing across 67 appearances.
• In 35 home contests, he is averaging 15.7 PPG.
• Reaves has played against Western Conference teams 46 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 15.5 points per outing.
• In 15 matchups against Pacific Division opponents, Reaves is averaging 14.2 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Reaves has averaged 16.7 points per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup five times during that stretch.
• Given the above trends, going with the “under” for Reaves is the better option.

Prediction: Austin Reaves UNDER 16.5 points

 

James Tillman’s Warriors vs. Lakers Picks

Spread: Warriors (+2.5) Over/Under: UNDER 233 points Player Prop Bet: Austin Reavers UNDER 16.5 points