ATLANTA, Georgia–Today is the day we’ve all been waiting for: the Final Four of men’s college hoops. Fasten your seat belts and hold my beer, we’ve got winners coming your way.
So far our March Madness record is 7-6 ATS (Against the spread) with Kansas over Houston my only pick in the Elite 8. Good news: money is still in the till. A nice 3-0 to finish out the NCAA season is our goal and then on to the MLB baseball game of the day. Steve Bannon says you can’t beat baseball. Ha! Just watch Godzilla smoke ’em on the diamond.
Speaking of baseball, I’ll share Joe Fredericks’ pitching stats over at Grassfield HS in Chesapeake, VA after two games:
4 Innings, 0.00 ERA, 1 hit, 11 K’s. Off to a good start. He starts today vs. Kempsville. Joe’s a 2023 grad committed to pitching at West Virginia University.
#JoeyIce. He’ll be at Pro-5 Baseball Academy in North Carolina to finish out his senior year in high school.
I’ve got my picks below but if you want to roll with the same game parlays (SGP) then let me point you to the king of parlays: Ben Tribbett!
Follow his parlay picks on Twitter: @NotLarrySabato
Godzilla Wins is your guide to money-making selections for March Madness! It’s Final 4 Time! Brought to you by DraftKings (and the promo code GODZILLA!) — DraftKings is an official betting partner of MARCH MADNESS!!
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Lines provided by Draft Kings as of 11:00 AM, April 1, 2022
Villanova vs. Kansas -4
Although picking them over Houston last week, I am not on the JayHawks bandwagon. Watching them consistently this year, I don’t see them as particularly disciplined or laser-focused. They rely on putting superior athletes on the floor.
Villanova on the other hand is the exact opposite: not flashy, not intimidating, just solid in all aspects of the game.
The Wildcats are the most fundamentally sound team in the final four. Watching them play is like doing a calculus exam: it’s excruciatingly painful until all the numbers add up at the end and then euphoria sets in. Here’s the kicker: so far 89 percent of the public money is on Kansas to cover. Did you ever see a bookmaker go broke? Always bet against the public. They always lose. BTW that’s why you read my columns!
Why I love Villanova to cover (or win outright) is simple: they make free throws at a historic clip, averaging 83 percent made, translating into nearly 17 points per game. Wow! Stay focused on their senior floor leader, PG Colin Gilespie, who is quietly lighting up the dance.
Let’s face it, Kansas had a cakewalk getting here, disposing of crippled Creighton, a far inferior Miami squad, and a Cinderella Providence. They struggled against all three, and this is their first real test of the tournament.
My major concern with Villanova is the absence of injured number two scorer Justin Moore. His void will force players into new roles.
Kansas loves to run and gun. They average a nation high 16 seconds remaining on the shot clock when they take their first shot. It’s speed, speed, speed, and an up-tempo style. Contrast this with Villanova, the slowest team in the country. How can they keep up?
V-coach Jay Wright has to slow this game down to a snail’s pace and frustrate Kansas offensively. Then they have to rebound. A plethora of second shots for the JayHawks will spell a Cat’s disaster.
This is one of those games where if you bet Kansas, you’ll be throwing shoes at the TV set and knocking over the coffee table in frustration. If you take a shot every time Kansas jacks up an off-balance jumper outside the key after one pass you’ll be sloshed out of your mind at the 10:00 mark of the first half.
Take the points, sit back and relax. Watch the Cats slowly and methodically plod around, make layups after nine passes, and sink foul shots. Down a shot for every free throw, Villanova misses and you can lead your church choir after the game.
PICK: Villanova +4
North Carolina Vs. Duke -4
It’s the Coach K show! Turn the sound off so you can save yourself three hours of non-stop Coach K dribble. Yay Coach K, ok? Can we get on with life now, please?
My mantra: reality, not hyperbole. As a consequence, Duke is tight as a witch’s summer shoe. Do you want to be the team that ended K’s career with a loss to the cross-town arch-rivals on tobacco road? I didn’t think so.
Meanwhile, the Heels are having a blast, playing video games right up to warmups. I’ll take the fun bunch any day of the week. If you ain’t having fun, you ain’t winning!
NC is relishing this underdog role, winning 10 of their last 11 games while popping St. Peter’s bubble last week. Look, this team went 15-2 in ACC play, so they are not an anomaly that caught a streak. 6’10” Armando Bacot is no joke in the paint and he can pop out with multiple double-doubles this season.
Duke is Duke. They are the fan favorite, and everybody wants to see a Duke-Kansas final so the media can have a fawn fest.
Too bad, it’ll be Villanova Vs. UNC, just to aggravate the fake news. Except for you, reading my column now and making some jack in the process.
PICK: North Carolina +4